Analysis Is interviewing draftees a waste of time?

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footylover18

footylover18

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Hi Guys,

I wrote a post on the topic interviewing draftees. It may be somewhat controversial. Happy for any feedback/thoughts you may have.

One of my favourite scenes in the movie “Moneyball” involves Brad Pitt, playing the role of the Oakland A’s General Manager Billy Beane, sitting at a table with scouts. They are debating the merits of a potential recruit:

“He has an ugly girlfriend. An ugly girlfriend means no confidence”

Another scout chimes in:

“He’s got an attitude, the attitude is good, the kinda guy who walks into the room and his dick has already been there for two minutes”

Brad Pitt is left shaking his head.

The scouts are falling for “Fundamental Attribution Error”. This is a classic cognitive bias where people have a tendency to under-emphasise situational context in favour of over-emphasising dispositional and personality trait explanations.

Interviewing draftees may be a waste of time that can potentially do more harm than good for this reason.

List managers interviewing these kids are liable to extrapolate largely irrelevant character traits to explain why a kid may or may not make it as an AFL player.

“He makes his bed”

“He comes from a good family”

“He’s a good, strong, country lad”

What do these things even mean? Do they really help predict whether a kid will make it at AFL level?

Recruiters are at risk of trying to search for additional data points they feel gives them an edge in evaluating a prospect. It may not be enough to watch the game footage as the sole source of information when scouting a player. All your competitors can watch that same footage and potentially come to the same conclusions.

A player interview though is a unique experience between the recruiter and the player. I believe recruiters are at significant risk of over emphasising this component of player evaluation. What they see and hear during a home visit or a player interview is exclusive to them. Recruiters can be tempted to over-analyse these experiences.

This is perhaps why recruiters are known to ask obscure questions during draftee interviews. Why bother asking a question about strengths and weaknesses? Every team can ask that. There is no edge found in the answers to such common questions. Instead teams have been known to ask questions such as:

-‘Count backwards from 100 in multiples of 7’

-‘How would you feel if your brother took your spot?’

-‘How would your sister view you as a person?’

Noah Anderson was even asked The Trolley Problem.

A Crows recruiter reportedly handed a draftee a Where’s Wally picture and asked him to find Wally. 30 excruciating seconds later the draftee was informed Wally was actually not in the picture at all. Presumably, this test was designed to see how the draftee handled the pressure. Would they get flustered or remain calm while searching for Wally? Is this meant to translate to how the draftee would perform when having a shot at goal in a preliminary final years down the road? The questions are likely originating from team psychologists, who potentially have a significant confirmation bias when contemplating the merits of such assessments.

During Jack Higgins’ draft year the common narrative was that his dedication to football was second to none. He had quit school to focus solely on his football career. Recruiters swooned over the 18y.o who had dominated his junior season recording the highest ever rating by Champion Data. This obsession and singular focus on a footy career was viewed as the reason he quit school. By Jack’s own admission this was not the case.

“I couldn’t really sit straight and was bored and I was just there because I had to be,” Jack said. “If I did VCE I’d probably get a bad score, so what’s the point in me going through?”

Jack simply not liking school did not fit the story though. It was easier for people to attribute Jack’s decision to his single-minded focus on a career in football.

It is possible that one of the major reasons for Jack’s dominant junior season was not due to his obsession with footy or dedication to his future career. Perhaps it was simply that he was able to spend more time training and extra time in the gym. He did not have to worry about school assignments and year 12 exams. Most draftees need to juggle their school and football commitments. Perhaps Jack was so dominant because he was able to spend his junior year exclusively focussed on football. It stands to reason then that Jack’s development was fast tracked and as such was closer to the finished article than other draftees were.

Brodie Grundy on the other hand famously slid during his draft. A known “quirky” personality. One wonders what impact this had on recruiters and their subsequent assessment of him. Whilst most draftees look to impress the recruiters interviewing them, Grundy asked then GWS List Manager Stephen Silvagni during his interview:

“Why would I want to come to a club that's only been around for one year?"

Grundy also answered the front door to West Coast recruiters wearing nothing but a towel around his waist. Despite having an obvious need at the ruck position, GWS bypassed Grundy with each of their 5 selections before Grundy was eventually taken by Collingwood at 18.

I wonder if Silvagni attributed Grundy’s question and other behaviour to that of arrogance and extrapolated that to scenarios such as Grundy potentially being difficult to coach. We can never know for certain. Is it possible that if all GWS had to go on was Grundy’s junior football performance and they never interviewed him that he would now be a Giants player? Again, we can’t know for certain, but I believe it’s possible.

Daniel Kahneman in his book “Thinking Fast and Slow” writes:

“The measure of success for the brain is the coherence of the story it manages to create. The amount and quality of the data on which the story is based are largely irrelevant. When information is scarce, which is a common occurrence, the brain operates as a machine for jumping to conclusions”

We all have a story in our mind about what a future premiership player looks like. But building a premiership team or winning a Brownlow takes all types. Jason Akermanis and Simon Black. Ben Cousins and Chris Judd. Dustin Martin and Trent Cotchin.

We are also inclined to favour people who remind us of ourselves (Affinity Bias). Quirky characters like Grundy don’t match the story of success we have in mind.

Player interviews can reveal new information. But unless we are mindful of our biases, we will misapply that information and pass over the opportunity to write a new story of success.
Click to expand...

breakinglines.substack.com

Player interviews and the Attribution Error

Should recruiters avoid interviewing draftees?
breakinglines.substack.com breakinglines.substack.com
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Good OP.

Definitely not a waste of time, you’d hope that clubs would be aware of such pitfalls and strategies around them as you suggest.

Really there are a few things they may be able to help understand-

What a player’s support network is like.
Do the club think the player would fit the group (nobody likes to work with d heads).
An understanding of the maturity of the player.
An insight into the drive of the player (this would be fallible as you suggest, but again it’s just a data point).
 

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footylover18 said:
Hi Guys,

I wrote a post on the topic interviewing draftees. It may be somewhat controversial. Happy for any feedback/thoughts you may have.



breakinglines.substack.com

Player interviews and the Attribution Error

Should recruiters avoid interviewing draftees?
breakinglines.substack.com breakinglines.substack.com
Click to expand...
Great article and agree with some points, but interviewing pontential draftees is not just about finding out who they are as a person. It’s also developing a relationship with them and their family, so if the club does draft them they aren’t starting from scratch and the family feels at peace at pontentially sending their son to the other side of the country. It’s not just about the club wanting to find out about the draftee on a personal level, it’s also the club selling themself and their culture.
 
andleanback said:
Great article and agree with some points, but interviewing pontential draftees is not just about finding out who they are as a person. It’s also developing a relationship with them and their family, so if the club does draft them they aren’t starting from scratch and the family feels at peace at pontentially sending their son to the other side of the country. It’s not just about the club wanting to find out about the draftee on a personal level, it’s also the club selling themself and their culture.
Click to expand...
Surely it would be more efficient to do this after they are drafted?
 
perplexed said:
You only have to meet three or four families rather than 30 or 40.
Click to expand...
You don’t get to know them over 1 day though. As I’ve said it’s important to build up the relationship so the family knows the club their kid is walking in to. Usually on draft night the clubs host a function for the families of the first round draftees, so the kid/ family is going to turn up to that not knowing anyone from the club 😂
 
andleanback said:
You don’t get to know them over 1 day though. As I’ve said it’s important to build up the relationship so the family knows the club their kid is walking in to. Usually on draft night the clubs host a function for the families of the first round draftees, so the kid/ family is going to turn up to that not knowing anyone from the club 😂
Click to expand...
But you dont need to get to know them or build a relationship until they are drafted. Plenty of time for that. Better not to have your draft decisions corrupted.
 
perplexed said:
But you dont need to get to know them or build a relationship until they are drafted. Plenty of time for that. Better not to have your draft decisions corrupted.
Click to expand...
What are you talking about, how’s there plenty of time for that once they are drafted. The kid leaves and the parents don’t even know anyone from the club, that’ll end real well. It’s not like the nfl where kids are drafted as adults after being away from home for 3-4 years at college, they are 18. Getting to know who the kid is and his family is a critical part of the drafting process.
 
andleanback said:
What are you talking about, how’s there plenty of time for that once they are drafted. The kid leaves and the parents don’t even know anyone from the club, that’ll end real well. It’s not like the nfl where kids are drafted as adults after being away from home for 3-4 years at college, they are 18. Getting to know who the kid is and his family is a critical part of the drafting process.
Click to expand...
I think you have missed the point of the op.
 
This kind of reminds me of those GWS interviewers chatting to an 18 yr old Dom Tyson

GWS: You think you're capable of making it?
Tyson: uh...
GWS: yes or no
Tyson: no?
 

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I tend to agree and you make some good points. I think it has certainly gone to far in terms of the crazy riddles and problem solving questions etc
 
Love it. For a long time I think Essendon have incorrectly targeted based on even temperaments. Similarly related a no tattoo policy was in place under Hird/Bomber Thompson, presumably that it has some baring on playing ability and suggested something about professionalism, like an opinion straight from English aristocracy. Pretty humorous from a bloke who peddled drugs.

Though maybe there was merit to it, as we got 34 blokes to take injections with uniform goosesteps except for the bloke with shit tattoos.
 
Is interviewing draftees a waste of time? No. There are many important elements that can be picked up from an interview.

Is their potential affinity bias with the recruiters? - Almost certainly. But as you point out,and as Prof. Kahneman points out, that is not necessarily a bad thing, except when there is someone with potential who does not have affinity with that recruiter, where it becomes a risk. Similarities in teams and list composition can have advantages - on the flipside, a team or list which has a good internal affinity can make faster (but not always better) team decisions because they are more familiar with the way that the way they perceive the problem. Regardless, for mine, a clear mitigation technique against the blind spot of the playing which is not aligned as suggested towards the slow bit of the book "Thinking, Fast and Slow" and in also in Kahneman's piece in the HBR's "Making Good Decisions" is to have a diverse panel interviewing and evaluating the potential draftee and combining that information into an overall assessment.
 
Great article but I think it misses the fact these recruiters are talking to kids/ families/ teachers/ coaches all year, by draft combine time they will have one or two of their recruiters that know them really well through multiple lenses. Combine interviews are where kids will be introduced to the team as a whole, some times coaches and existing players as well, by then they will have a fair idea of whether a kid is the type of personality they want to bring in to the club.
The Grundy point is interesting but the "quirky" characters are all around the AFL now, Collingwood has quite a few of the sort for example with Phillips, Grundy, Moore, Sier, Lynch. We've heard the stories of how obsessed with Star Wars Duursma is, this is the stuff that may have had that effect but as clubs get more refined with their techniques it's become less and less about finding someone that's a mirror match of the existing squad personality wise
 
Interesting read. Like any job, interviews have a role to play. They are definitely not a waste of time. But I agree - in all professions - that too much emphasis can be put on it, and both unconscious and conscious biases play a large role in recruitment. I have hired people in my
business who interviewed really well and have proven unimpressive in work ethic and ability once hired. I have also known people of excellent ability and character who interview very poorly.

Some of the examples of questions and challenges given in the article are ridiculously irrelevant to whether someone will make it kicking a footy around a park. Proper interviews have a place, but silly games, tricks and riddles don’t
 
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andleanback said:
What are you talking about, how’s there plenty of time for that once they are drafted. The kid leaves and the parents don’t even know anyone from the club, that’ll end real well. It’s not like the nfl where kids are drafted as adults after being away from home for 3-4 years at college, they are 18. Getting to know who the kid is and his family is a critical part of the drafting process.
Click to expand...
Why does a club need to rush the draftees away the day after they are drafted? Why not give them a few weeks for orientation, clubs can meet their families then. It seems that the current process is very inefficient. With the reduction in club spending this looks like a simple cut that may be beneficial.
 
perplexed said:
Why does a club need to rush the draftees away the day after they are drafted? Why not give them a few weeks for orientation, clubs can meet their families then. It seems that the current process is very inefficient. With the reduction in club spending this looks like a simple cut that may be beneficial.
Click to expand...
Because pre season training starts, if they don’t train for a couple weeks after the draft they miss the pre Christmas block and don’t start training until early Jan. You really have no idea what you are talking about, getting to know the kids they are targeting is a year long process. The month before the draft (Usually after combine) clubs would have a clear picture on the kids they want and it moves from screening them and finding out about who the kids are to more detailing what happens once they are drafted - say where they’ll be living, who they’ll be living with, schedule around preseason etc etc getting the kid comfortable so they are slide simultaneously into an afl environment with minimal stress. Where would you save money on this process, please inlighten me - petrol money?
 
It's a way of trying to reduce risk and create certainty of an inexact science.

Nobody can really predict how their life will go over the next 5-10 years at 17-18 years old. Now add in the unusual "bubble" environment that is a professional sporting club, suddenly having a lot more money, notoriety, and freedom (while also having the restrictions of your new "job", which used to be a fun hobby) than you've ever had (and most "normal" kids that age have), and who knows what can happen.

It's not really surprising that so many AFL players either burn out or have mental health challenges these days. It's far more to deal with than just kicking a footy on Saturdays. I guess interviews attempt to get a gauge on who can "handle it", and who can't, but you're never going to know 100% until the kid is in the system.

I do think making future decisions or predictions on a 17-18 year old's off-the-cuff remarks or how they answer the front door is a bit silly and rash though.
 
PMBangers said:
The Grundy point is interesting but the "quirky" characters are all around the AFL now, Collingwood has quite a few of the sort for example with Phillips, Grundy, Moore, Sier, Lynch. We've heard the stories of how obsessed with Star Wars Duursma is, this is the stuff that may have had that effect but as clubs get more refined with their techniques it's become less and less about finding someone that's a mirror match of the existing squad personality wise
Click to expand...

I honestly don't find any of the players you mentioned to be "quirky" characters. They just seem like pretty normal young blokes, with personalities and interests outside of their work.
 
andleanback said:
Because pre season training starts, if they don’t train for a couple weeks after the draft they miss the pre Christmas block and don’t start training until early Jan. You really have no idea what you are talking about, getting to know the kids they are targeting is a year long process. The month before the draft (Usually after combine) clubs would have a clear picture on the kids they want and it moves from screening them and finding out about who the kids are to more detailing what happens once they are drafted - say where they’ll be living, who they’ll be living with, schedule around preseason etc etc getting the kid comfortable so they are slide simultaneously into an afl environment with minimal stress. Where would you save money on this process, please inlighten me - petrol money?
Click to expand...
You're just describing the current process like it's the best and only way to do things. It seems very cumbersome.
I dont work in the football industry but I do employ staff. I dont feel the need to develop relationships with every potential employee and their families a year out from them starting work.
There must be tens of thousands of staff hours wasted on meeting and cultivating relationships with players and families that dont end up at that club.
 
perplexed said:
You're just describing the current process like it's the best and only way to do things. It seems very cumbersome.
I dont work in the football industry but I do employ staff. I dont feel the need to develop relationships with every potential employee and their families a year out from them starting work.
There must be tens of thousands of staff hours wasted on meeting and cultivating relationships with players and families that dont end up at that club.
Click to expand...
The recruiters Twomey has been interviewing have fairly uniformly been commenting that family visits are probably a thing of the past. They don't get as full a picture from a chat over Zoom but the resources that went into the old approach could be better spent elsewhere - if they even still exist.
 
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