Rumour GFC 2018 Player Trading, Drafting, FA, Rumours, and Wish lists - PT3

[thecatattack]

Really Nakia cant get onfield, Narkle and Jones are way off, Kelly is a gun and Parfitt needs to lift next year....

cockatoo being injured doesnt mean he's not good enough

cockatoo, narkle, kelly and parfitt will all be best 22 next year

 

[Kyuss]

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2018/09/14/report-geelong-targeting-brisbane-ruckman/
He is a gun but he's also 32.
Anyway just my opinion but I can't see this one happening. We just resigned Stanley.

Can't see it happening but obviously all depends on cost.
Wouldn't be against it assuming we also bring in some younger talent to develop at the same time.

 

[thecatattack]

if we can get martin cheap i dont mind it

we're obviously not going to tank or reset with the likes of danger, selwood, hawkins etc old but still good enough to compete at a high level

 

[catman2006]

cockatoo being injured doesnt mean he's not good enough

cockatoo, narkle, kelly and parfitt will all be best 22 next year

Narkle wont be still few years off, lets hope we can get nakia on the park long enough, lets hope we keep Kelly and parfitt already is in best 22 but needs to find consistency.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

all we can ask. It would require I presume Duncan getting a nice increase in dollars.. Its a bit different for us to be looking at something like this but I don't dislike it... but it would depend on what they did with the pick

I was also told by someone differently that Darcy Is looking at returning home and we've courted him so maybe he might be part of a deal. Who knows but we'll find out soon enough if there is any truth behind the rumour.

I'd be clearing decks in the midfield and getting as much picks in this draft as we can. We're stacked through the middle so losing Duncan wouldn't be an issue for me.

Also, apparently Kelly will sign for a further two years.

I'm looking forward to seeing how this pans out.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

I can't see Brisbane giving up Martin cheaply. They showed heaps of improvement last year and a finals berth next year isn't out of the question if they nab Neale and McCarthy. I believe they can contend in as little as two years but not without Martin.

 

[Johnny Cattery]

West coast finished top two this year and are going into a prelim in just over a week. Gaff is still leaving and Lycett too despite Lycett being guaranteed first ruck with Nicnat down and then again when he retires. Hannebery is asking for a trade to the saints. Polec is going to North now but originally he elected to go to then basket case port adelaide over the crows. It's more complex than premierships now.

The picks taken in trade indicate how much of a crap shoot the draft is too. Luke Partington can't get a game in a thin midfield, Sam Powell-Pepper looked good last year but has been dropped on form and couldn't get a game in a port side that was crying out for him to step up. How is Wil Powell going at gold coast? The pick we got back is working out pretty well. Hugh Goddard was just delisted. Pointing out the good players that came after only reinforces the point, because when we did take our first rounders we take Thurlow over Grundy etc.

We built the 07 side through decent drafting but a big part of that was striking gold with father sons. We've got a couple coming up but none of them look like a Scarlett/Hawkins/Ablett. Total draft commitment with only turn us into the saints

All true. But. In five years, who of our current list will still be there? Again, it’s luck and guess, but purely on age I cannot see any more than (in number order) Parfitt, Cockatoo, Kolo, Fogarty, Sav, Constable, Narkle, Murdoch, Duncan, Bews, Menegola, Guthrie, Cunico, Meiers, Henry, Guthrie of the Z variety, Jones, O’Connor and Stewart being with us. It would be reasonable to bet that of those 19, at least four go because of injury/form/trade, although on stats it’s more likely to be more.

Because of our demographic donut, in the next five years we need to average bringing in four viable players per year just to maintain our list size. I just don’t see how we can do it unless we are bringing in eight or so through the draft, and hoping to come good with half our picks. Trading a player in is done because you have a guarantee, or seem to (like anyone else they can get injured or lose form), but you pay twice: once in losing the pick, then again when they retire years earlier than the draftees you don’t have. That is what I am trying to say: the maths of free agency catches up with you. By definition, a player you get in free agency is probably entering the last third of his career.

It’s is easy enough to say now that we would take Danger over Weideman (pick nine in that draft), but frame it as 12 years of Weideman v 6 years of Danger and it looks a bit different. We need to stop judging the success of trades on the single year they occur, and judge them on the life span of the players that the trade has cost.

 

[Larry Donohue]

You can have your injury prone ranga no flag coming soon that requires winning multiple finals lol, get me more aboriginal talent speed and class.

Ranga aboriginal would be fine

 

[Down at K Park]

if we can get martin cheap i dont mind it

we're obviously not going to tank or reset with the likes of danger, selwood, hawkins etc old but still good enough to compete at a high level

I can't see Brisbane giving up Martin cheaply. They showed heaps of improvement last year and a finals berth next year isn't out of the question if they nab Neale and McCarthy. I believe they can contend in as little as two years but not without Martin.

Why would they give him up cheap? I can’t see a ready replacement they have for him, so it makes little sense why they would even entertain the trade unless we paid a stupid price.

Sounds like complete crap to me. Why would we want a 32 yr old ruck who is little improvement on what we already have.

 

[Turbocat]

I was also told by someone differently that Darcy Is looking at returning home and we've courted him so maybe he might be part of a deal. Who knows but we'll find out soon enough if there is any truth behind the rumour.

I'd be clearing decks in the midfield and getting as much picks in this draft as we can. We're stacked through the middle so losing Duncan wouldn't be an issue for me.

Also, apparently Kelly will sign for a further two years.

I'm looking forward to seeing how this pans out.

I have been Full Forward that our need was all about KPF/Ruck ... but Id agree clearing and rebalancing types in the midfield probably appeal to me.

I look at Melb and the Melb game and we can not expect Selwood at 30 to be up against 3 or 4 22 year old Selwoods. So its the type that I would look at as much as being stacked. I also think we need to have a more long term look. Id prefer to be looking 3-5 years down the track.. its probably harder inside the club. I heard Bob Murphy talk about that sort of announced change in direction and how it affected Giansiracusa ( thats it i will never be a Premiership player etc)

So as much as we are stack in the midfield.. id look to add players and see who can become the next group Constable is a start . Not sure Narke etc is the type I think of as our Oliver or Viney. OHallaran , depending on what picks you have ..a couple of young inside monsters to rejig that stack mid field may be the way to go.

Darcy... to be honest ..it would be better than going the Martin route... but he would not be an Ottens he would not be coming to a finished group.

 

[thecatattack]

Sounds like complete crap to me. Why would we want a 32 yr old ruck who is little improvement on what we already have.

Because Stanley, whilst good for however many games, was dogshit to start and injured to end and then our backup ruckman has played 4 games.

 

[Down at K Park]

Because Stanley, whilst good for however many games, was dogshit to start and injured to end and then our backup ruckman has played 4 games.

A calf strain isn’t a major injury though is it. Just poor timing.

Although in hindsight he should never have come back against the hawks. Should have been given an extra week.

 

[Isaac Norm Smith]

Very true I'm a supporter but my heart says we can win late in the year. When you go through the list and compare it to the top end of other sides my head says we probably can't. Just the elements of athletisism and running power we just can't match these younger sides anymore. Perhaps a coach can get past that strategically with ball movement just our record recently nothing suggests topping up will help this side.

Yep, totally agree

 

[CatsDoItBetter]

I was also told by someone differently that Darcy Is looking at returning home and we've courted him so maybe he might be part of a deal. Who knows but we'll find out soon enough if there is any truth behind the rumour.

I'd be clearing decks in the midfield and getting as much picks in this draft as we can. We're stacked through the middle so losing Duncan wouldn't be an issue for me.

Also, apparently Kelly will sign for a further two years.

I'm looking forward to seeing how this pans out.

Duncan is a star but I agree if we can trade out some mids for early picks and/or young players that is ideal. If we can go to the draft with 2 early picks this year and Darcy that’d be ideal. Kelly signing as well wake me up when this dream is over.

 

[frggr]

I think I'm going to refer to Tim Kelly as "The Contracted Tim Kelly" until next year.

Too many West Coast nuffies claiming he's only worth a second round pick.

 

[Lewy]

There are many supporters that are critical that Geelong attempts to stay in finals contention each year rather than dropping down the ladder for a period and loading up via the draft with some picks in the top 10. I personally believe that you are continually rebuilding and that there always should be a balance between trading in players (of any age) and drafting both young & mature age players. Anyway I have done a little analysis of finishing positions for the last 22 years (from when Fitzroy merged with Brisbane & including this year) and found the following:

• Only 6 teams have not finished last (Crows, Cats, Hawks, Kangas, Power & Swans)
• Only 2 teams have not finished bottom 4 (Cats & Swans)
• 3 teams have finished top four 8 or more times (Hawks - 8, Swans - 9 & Cats - 11)
• 6 teams have finished top 8, 12 or more times (Crows, Cats, Hawks, Kangas, Swans & Eagles)
• 5 teams have won 2 or more flags (Crows, Lions, Cats, Hawks & Swans)
• 6 teams have not won a flag (Blues, Dockers, Suns, Giants, Dockers & Saints)
• 6 out of 12 teams to have won a flag have finished outside the top 8 on 11 or more occasions including the Lions.

The stats suggest that there is no clear evidence that you are more likely to achieve success by dropping down the ladder. Of the teams that have won multiple flags, it is only Brisbane that spent an extended period of time towards the bottom of the ladder & the hawks spent 2 years in the bottom 4. The Crows won the 1st two flags & have spent 8 years outside the finals since, but have not managed another flag. Both the Cats & the Swans have managed to stay very competitive (only 7 & 3 years outside finals respectively) & win multiple flags.

The team that has probably been the best at dropping down the ladder to rebuild is Collingwood, although this has only netted them one flag to date. Richmond have obviously won a flag from rebuilding, although they spent a good part of 20 years near the bottom and I am not sure I would want that. St Kilda have tried to build from the bottom & have been unsuccessful, as have the Dockers & Melbourne (although that may be about to change for Melbourne). Carlton & Essendon have been the same, down in the bottom half for most of the time, and I would suggest that it has resulted in a bad culture & business practises for both clubs at certain times. The Bulldogs were successful in grabbing a flag, however their success has been fleeting.

There is no doubt that the Hawks, Cats & Swans have been the most successful clubs over the last 22 years (with Brisbane also dominating premierships at the start of that period). The great thing about being supporters of those clubs is not only the ultimate success achieved, but the amount of joy their supporters have had by being able to follow a team that has been competitive & successful throughout the season proper.

I think many of our supporters take for granted how much success the club has had. I know we will all have our options about the best way to achieve the ultimate success from a coaching & recruiting point of view, but I think stats actually suggest that having a winning culture & striving to win each year actually results in a more successful club.

Also need to bear in mind that from a statistical point of view, each club should only win a flag once in every 18 years, will make top 4 in 2 of every 9 years and will make the eight in 4 of every 9 years. The Cats have been well ahead on all fronts, as have the Hawks & Swans. However the AFL will doing all they can to ensure that these stats are even across all clubs over the long term.

 

[00VicWard001]

You can have your injury prone ranga no flag coming soon that requires winning multiple finals lol, get me more aboriginal talent speed and class.

I can already see my favourite game next year will be when Narkle, Cockatoo, Kelly and Parfitt start in the middle. They may not be as experienced or skilled or even contested as the current line-up, but i back them to be more attacking and more defensive overall.

Put Duncan and Guthrie on the wing, Danger and Ablett forward and Selwood in the back line (i.e. Sam Mitchell).

 

[Mad_Hatter]

I was also told by someone differently that Darcy Is looking at returning home and we've courted him so maybe he might be part of a deal. Who knows but we'll find out soon enough if there is any truth behind the rumour.

I'd be clearing decks in the midfield and getting as much picks in this draft as we can. We're stacked through the middle so losing Duncan wouldn't be an issue for me.

Also, apparently Kelly will sign for a further two years.

I'm looking forward to seeing how this pans out.

I can confirm this currently sits as the favourite outcome from all parties.

 

[00VicWard001]

There are many supporters that are critical that Geelong attempts to stay in finals contention each year rather than dropping down the ladder for a period and loading up via the draft with some picks in the top 10. I personally believe that you are continually rebuilding and that there always should be a balance between trading in players (of any age) and drafting both young & mature age players. Anyway I have done a little analysis of finishing positions for the last 22 years (from when Fitzroy merged with Brisbane & including this year) and found the following:

• Only 6 teams have not finished last (Crows, Cats, Hawks, Kangas, Power & Swans)
• Only 2 teams have not finished bottom 4 (Cats & Swans)
• 3 teams have finished top four 8 or more times (Hawks - 8, Swans - 9 & Cats - 11)
• 6 teams have finished top 8, 12 or more times (Crows, Cats, Hawks, Kangas, Swans & Eagles)
• 5 teams have won 2 or more flags (Crows, Lions, Cats, Hawks & Swans)
• 6 teams have not won a flag (Blues, Dockers, Suns, Giants, Dockers & Saints)
• 6 out of 12 teams to have won a flag have finished outside the top 8 on 11 or more occasions including the Lions.

The stats suggest that there is no clear evidence that you are more likely to achieve success by dropping down the ladder. Of the teams that have won multiple flags, it is only Brisbane that spent an extended period of time towards the bottom of the ladder & the hawks spent 2 years in the bottom 4. The Crows won the 1st two flags & have spent 8 years outside the finals since, but have not managed another flag. Both the Cats & the Swans have managed to stay very competitive (only 7 & 3 years outside finals respectively) & win multiple flags.

The team that has probably been the best at dropping down the ladder to rebuild is Collingwood, although this has only netted them one flag to date. Richmond have obviously won a flag from rebuilding, although they spent a good part of 20 years near the bottom and I am not sure I would want that. St Kilda have tried to build from the bottom & have been unsuccessful, as have the Dockers & Melbourne (although that may be about to change for Melbourne). Carlton & Essendon have been the same, down in the bottom half for most of the time, and I would suggest that it has resulted in a bad culture & business practises for both clubs at certain times. The Bulldogs were successful in grabbing a flag, however their success has been fleeting.

There is no doubt that the Hawks, Cats & Swans have been the most successful clubs over the last 22 years (with Brisbane also dominating premierships at the start of that period). The great thing about being supporters of those clubs is not only the ultimate success achieved, but the amount of joy their supporters have had by being able to follow a team that has been competitive & successful throughout the season proper.

I think many of our supporters take for granted how much success the club has had. I know we will all have our options about the best way to achieve the ultimate success from a coaching & recruiting point of view, but I think stats actually suggest that having a winning culture & striving to win each year actually results in a more successful club.

Also need to bear in mind that from a statistical point of view, each club should only win a flag once in every 18 years, will make top 4 in 2 of every 9 years and will make the eight in 4 of every 9 years. The Cats have been well ahead on all fronts, as have the Hawks & Swans. However the AFL will doing all they can to ensure that these stats are even across all clubs over the long term.

Legendary post.

 

[CatsDoItBetter]

There are many supporters that are critical that Geelong attempts to stay in finals contention each year rather than dropping down the ladder for a period and loading up via the draft with some picks in the top 10. I personally believe that you are continually rebuilding and that there always should be a balance between trading in players (of any age) and drafting both young & mature age players. Anyway I have done a little analysis of finishing positions for the last 22 years (from when Fitzroy merged with Brisbane & including this year) and found the following:

• Only 6 teams have not finished last (Crows, Cats, Hawks, Kangas, Power & Swans)
• Only 2 teams have not finished bottom 4 (Cats & Swans)
• 3 teams have finished top four 8 or more times (Hawks - 8, Swans - 9 & Cats - 11)
• 6 teams have finished top 8, 12 or more times (Crows, Cats, Hawks, Kangas, Swans & Eagles)
• 5 teams have won 2 or more flags (Crows, Lions, Cats, Hawks & Swans)
• 6 teams have not won a flag (Blues, Dockers, Suns, Giants, Dockers & Saints)
• 6 out of 12 teams to have won a flag have finished outside the top 8 on 11 or more occasions including the Lions.

The stats suggest that there is no clear evidence that you are more likely to achieve success by dropping down the ladder. Of the teams that have won multiple flags, it is only Brisbane that spent an extended period of time towards the bottom of the ladder & the hawks spent 2 years in the bottom 4. The Crows won the 1st two flags & have spent 8 years outside the finals since, but have not managed another flag. Both the Cats & the Swans have managed to stay very competitive (only 7 & 3 years outside finals respectively) & win multiple flags.

The team that has probably been the best at dropping down the ladder to rebuild is Collingwood, although this has only netted them one flag to date. Richmond have obviously won a flag from rebuilding, although they spent a good part of 20 years near the bottom and I am not sure I would want that. St Kilda have tried to build from the bottom & have been unsuccessful, as have the Dockers & Melbourne (although that may be about to change for Melbourne). Carlton & Essendon have been the same, down in the bottom half for most of the time, and I would suggest that it has resulted in a bad culture & business practises for both clubs at certain times. The Bulldogs were successful in grabbing a flag, however their success has been fleeting.

There is no doubt that the Hawks, Cats & Swans have been the most successful clubs over the last 22 years (with Brisbane also dominating premierships at the start of that period). The great thing about being supporters of those clubs is not only the ultimate success achieved, but the amount of joy their supporters have had by being able to follow a team that has been competitive & successful throughout the season proper.

I think many of our supporters take for granted how much success the club has had. I know we will all have our options about the best way to achieve the ultimate success from a coaching & recruiting point of view, but I think stats actually suggest that having a winning culture & striving to win each year actually results in a more successful club.

Also need to bear in mind that from a statistical point of view, each club should only win a flag once in every 18 years, will make top 4 in 2 of every 9 years and will make the eight in 4 of every 9 years. The Cats have been well ahead on all fronts, as have the Hawks & Swans. However the AFL will doing all they can to ensure that these stats are even across all clubs over the long term.

I agree that finishing at the bottom of the ladder isn’t healthy for a club. But there are a big number of finishing brackets outside of top 4 and bottom 4. There were a number of years between the late 90s until 2002/3 in which Geelong were a terrible team. It’s a period of time between abletts when Geelong really struggled. But it did mean the club acquired the players that would become premiership players.

 

[Max Milburn]

I agree that finishing at the bottom of the ladder isn’t healthy for a club. But there are a big number of finishing brackets outside of top 4 and bottom 4. There were a number of years between the late 90s until 2002/3 in which Geelong were a terrible team. It’s a period of time between abletts when Geelong really struggled. But it did mean the club acquired the players that would become premiership players.

Free agency has changed the landscape forever.

 

[Ray Donovan]

Lol didnt this come from a ranga flag comment about Gary Rohan. I said I wanted more aboriginal talent I struggle to see this as a genuine list management discussion. But noted best available haha

 

[Lewy]

I agree that finishing at the bottom of the ladder isn’t healthy for a club. But there are a big number of finishing brackets outside of top 4 and bottom 4. There were a number of years between the late 90s until 2002/3 in which Geelong were a terrible team. It’s a period of time between abletts when Geelong really struggled. But it did mean the club acquired the players that would become premiership players.

I agree to an extent, although the draft has been and still is to an extent a bit of a lottery. I know that there is massive analysis that goes in to drafting young players these days, however we still have to remember that we are dealing with humans and their changing circumstances, so there is always going to be considerable uncertainty even with high draft picks. I think if you were to analyse the Geelong list during those premiership years, there were not many premiership players that were high draft picks. Other clubs would have had lists with many more players that were higher picks. The Cats managed to get some good father/sons, actually traded very well (Ottens, Mooney & Harley), had two good mature age selections (Taylor & Podsiadly) and managed to do well with their mid & lower picks. I also think they had some really good coaches & administrators around the place.

It would be nice to have some higher picks now and there may be an opportunity to trade one or two players out to achieve that, but I don’t think we are as far of a premiership as some people think. It only takes two or three players to significantly change the structure of a side & some changes to the game plan and suddenly things can look quite different.

 

[Isaac Norm Smith]

Free agency has changed the landscape forever.

It has. However, it remains to be seen whether it has changed the landscape for the better. I think we can certainly benefit from it moving forward, but it needs to be used in conjunction with drafting and trading. It can't replace the draft. We just need to strike a healthy balance between the draft, FA and trading. It's crucial we do this in the coming years.

 

[Isaac Norm Smith]

I can already see my favourite game next year will be when Narkle, Cockatoo, Kelly and Parfitt start in the middle. They may not be as experienced or skilled or even contested as the current line-up, but i back them to be more attacking and more defensive overall.

Put Duncan and Guthrie on the wing, Danger and Ablett forward and Selwood in the back line (i.e. Sam Mitchell).

I like this a lot. Developing the next generation in the midfield is a very smart move for the long-term. It also lessens the load on Danger, Sel etc in the short-term and hopefully extends their careers. For all the talent on paper, our star studded midfield did not perform collectively to expectations this year, not even close imo.