Fade for Profit

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Lenny29 said:
this was a little funny when it was someone else you were taking the piss out of :mad:
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What could have been with a little persistence!

aventura378bettingtrack.jpg
 
Tants if you're fading someone/some service you're destined to lose. No one on this board could go under 48% ATS long term if they tried. Because what does that mean? If they did, they would be winners taking long term bets on the other side.

What you're Z score in back testing on your angle play? Are you checking to see whether you're beating the closing line (BTCL)? If so, do you BTCL at 60%+ rate? Have you done any monte carlo simulation of bankroll growth?

There is value in a database heuristics (angle based) approach to handicapping. However the angles need to be logical. Indeed, I track over 100+ heuristics in AFL alone. Most deal with capping the market, rather than capping the game itself. And every one of them has tracked performance metrics in order to keep the angle 'live' in the model, if it doesn't meet a performance threshold, it turns itself off.

Angle based approaches are all well and good, but you can't go past capping the game itself. My heuristic plays feed to into my main model which deals with team performance. Yeah I could go 55% ATS just on angles, but orthogonal combination with match variables is what identifies a lot more +EV plays.

I have no intention to come off as patronizing, but if you don't understand the fundamental sport betting concepts I'm talking about, you're in absolutely no position to bet.

I've spent 4 years reading every book, every article, went back to uni to get a master's degree in statistics, and collaborated with some of the best sport betting modellers I could find to become a better sports bettor. And it's only now that I'm confident I know how stay on top of the book's juice and earn a good living.
 

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brett128 said:
Long diatribe
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Thanks for your concern. As can be seen by the graph, fading this particular person has netted ~+180u gain in 18months and ~+60u in the 3 months this thread has been going.

Of course, I could analyse the markets, do detailed testing of various hypotheses, attack every angle I have and make my plays accordingly. However, if I were to do all that it would take time and effort. I'd rather just fade and win. Get on board.

I particularly like these bits:

brett128 said:
I have no intention to come off as patronizing, but if you don't understand the fundamental sport betting concepts I'm talking about, you're in absolutely no position to bet.

I've spent 4 years reading every book, every article, went back to uni to get a master's degree in statistics, and collaborated with some of the best sport betting modellers I could find to become a better sports bettor. And it's only now that I'm confident I know how stay on top of the book's juice and earn a good living.
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I'm sure everyone will enjoy benefiting from your infinite wisdom on BF, maybe start your own thread and post your plays that way it will be really easy to tell how a uni educated sports bettor goes.
 
Good luck tants, you'll need it. The math behind your decision is going to slowly but inexorably take your money away from you.
 
brett128 said:
Good luck tants, you'll need it. The math behind your decision is going to slowly but inexorably take your money away from you.
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you need to understand punting is not a perfect model, there are people who can make money from making bets that are nominally -EV with a bit of luck, definitive statements like "The math behind your decision is going to slowly but inexorably take your money away from you" are just not true

you sound a lot like a textbook come to life with all your perfect world terminology, i'm just not sure you're super across the notion of variance
 
C_Turn said:
things really escalated here

tants what are you thinking for this round, have you had any luck chucking in some euro bets?
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The system has thrown up WCE as unbeatable along with Sydney. Get on board (probably don't multi though)

brett128 said:
Good luck tants, you'll need it. The math behind your decision is going to slowly but inexorably take your money away from you.
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Just like the maths (math - not when I went to school) on Kelly doesn't add up in the real world. I'll give you 500 bets to show that you are a better bettor for using Kelly over my system. Start your thread and away you go.
 
So I'm going to give this Kelly thing a go. When I lose 1200% of my bankroll, should I just ask for credit from sportsbet?
 
you need to understand punting is not a perfect model, there are people who can make money from making bets that are nominally -EV with a bit of luck
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This falls into the realm of gambling, not sports betting investment. If you're expressly trying to make long term profit from sports betting, you're trying to engage in a form of investment. If someone thinks they can 'invest' when they KNOW they have negative advantage; I'd call that person deluded and/or a gambling addict.
 
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