Charts/TA

[Evolved1]

Whales are definitely still buying and haven’t stopped since the November low. 2nd largest wallet has also been buying heavily since then as well. This is why I’m still confident this is simply another accumulation phase of this bull cycle like June-August.

I saw a glassnode chart (which I can't find now) showing that whale holdings (those with >1000) dropped significantly around the first top, grew at 30k, then dropped off again over 60k.

 

[BACCS]

I saw a glassnode chart (which I can't find now) showing that whale holdings (those with >1000) dropped significantly around the first top, grew at 30k, then dropped off again over 60k.

I remember similar. However, since the recent November crash they’ve started growing again. This honestly seems like a higher low where whales are accumulating for the next leg up.

 

[Evolved1]

Any thoughts from the skeptics? Caesar

Todays low so far was $61 from my support line.

 

[Caesar]

Any thoughts from the skeptics? Caesar

the plural of anecdote is not data

 

[Evolved1]

the plural of anecdote is not data

How do people make a living trading markets? How do people make a living playing poker?

There's commonalities.

 

[Caesar]

How do people make a living trading markets? How do people make a living playing poker?

There's commonalities.

no credible trader relies on TA to any significant degree

 

[Evolved1]

Gone long a bit earlier. There's confluence between the supertrend on 1 day chart and 40k region.

 

[BACCS]

 

[Evolved1]

We held the 4HR supertrend last night. Let's see how we go with resistance at 38k.

 

[BACCS]

We held the 4HR supertrend last night. Let's see how we go with resistance at 38k.

It feels like 40k will be at least touched this weekend, whether it holds is another story

 

[Evolved1]

It feels like 40k will be at least touched this weekend, whether it holds is another story

The stockmarket closing on weekends gives some breathing space for crypto to do it's own thing; whether that's good, bad, or neutral, I'm not completely sure.

 

[BACCS]

The stockmarket closing on weekends gives some breathing space for crypto to do it's own thing; whether that's good, bad, or neutral, I'm not completely sure.

PA is setting up well so I’m leaning towards a green weekend

 

[Evolved1]

PA is setting up well so I’m leaning towards a green weekend

My bias is to the downside here. Short 38k, stop loss 38.3k. Targets at 36k, 35k, 34k.

 

[BACCS]

My bias is to the downside here. Short 38k, stop loss 38.3k. Targets at 36k, 35k, 34k.

Hmmm interesting, a lot of the traders on CT are bullish here. Still way more chop until any decent trend, but my bias is upside this weekend. Jobs data in the US is important overnight.

 

[Evolved1]

Hmmm interesting, a lot of the traders on CT are bullish here. Still way more chop until any decent trend, but my bias is upside this weekend. Jobs data in the US is important overnight.

I'm a contrarian trader. Bullish sentiment is bearish.

38k could be a bearish retest of the breakdown. There's still an untapped low in the 34k region. BTC.D isn't rising. All of that makes me cautious for the bullish case.

If I'm wrong, I make money on my holds, lose very little on my short, and flip bullish higher.

 

[Evolved1]

Also, PA here seems like distribution to me.

 

[BACCS]

Also, PA here seems like distribution to me.

Heikin Ashi candle has flipped green on the weekly for the first time in 12 weeks, close the weekly around this price and we see a push to 50k during Feb I reckon. The US Fed are backing off a bit for now and the market has already priced in the rate increase in March, so I can't see that having any major impact if price has recovered to the 50k range. This recent mini bear markets have tended to last about 3 months before the trend reverses, which while still early is playing out here, pending the weekly close.

 

[Evolved1]

Heikin Ashi candle has flipped green on the weekly for the first time in 12 weeks, close the weekly around this price and we see a push to 50k during Feb I reckon. The US Fed are backing off a bit for now and the market has already priced in the rate increase in March, so I can't see that having any major impact if price has recovered to the 50k range. This recent mini bear markets have tended to last about 3 months before the trend reverses, which while still early is playing out here, pending the weekly close.

One rate rise may not do much to dampen prices, but I'm wary of up to 7. It's something to keep an eye on.

 

[BACCS]

One rate rise may not do much to dampen prices, but I'm wary of up to 7. It's something to keep an eye on.

If we get 7 then nuke it all, but that is the Armageddon scenario I reckon. All the Fed has to see if that inflation has peaked, which even with the recent scaring of markets is starting to see inflation taper off before the first rate hike. Interesting times ahead in any case.

 

[Evolved1]

I'm trying a long here. Had some buy orders filled below 42k already, and have more between 42 and 40k. Targeting 50k, stop loss 39.4k

 

[BACCS]

I'm trying a long here. Had some buy orders filled below 42k already, and have more between 42 and 40k. Targeting 50k, stop loss 39.4k

Good areas mate, it feels like price is setting up for a push above 50k before the likely rate hike in March, after which I think high 30s/low 40s is tested again.

 

[Evolved1]

Good areas mate, it feels like price is setting up for a push above 50k before the likely rate hike in March, after which I think high 30s/low 40s is tested again.

I love the tight invalidation too. It makes the R/R more appealing.

 

[Evolved1]

Bounced from the 50DMA, and looking for further upside now.

 

[BACCS]

 

[Evolved1]

I fomo'd in most of my last stables when we hit 43k. Pray for me.