Analysis 2023 - Best 22

[RedBloodBlackSwan]

Thought experiment.

Situation 1: How do you feel about out current forward line with our current list?

Situation 2: How would you feel about our forward line if we didn’t re-sign buddy last year?

I find the second situation more exciting (and is what I thought I would prefer) but surprisingly I think I prefer Buddy being there is an option, even if we play him a bit too often. Just not sure the other forwards have it together yet…

 

[Nuggetz]

Gulden to Campbell goal and vice versa. Bookmark it to happen often. If either of em are 60m out from goal I want them to go for it.

 

[Dubai Quacker]

We found with Dawson doing that that it was actually fairly easy to defend. Great to use as the second kick IMO.

Fair point - albeit Lloyd’s floaters sometimes mean we don’t get the second kick (or if we do, it’s from deep in the pocket).

 

[Kiama Chris]

Fair point - albeit Lloyd’s floaters sometimes mean we don’t get the second kick (or if we do, it’s from deep in the pocket).

Yes. Takes a bit of contortion to extract from there. Often need to come back across.
Hitting Campbell or Blakey about 40m out means the ball can drop about 90m from goal, one good kick into forward 50.
Also Blakey can take off if the opposition isn't awake.
Good options.

 

[hairy biker]

FWIW here are the kick in stats v Carlton;

Kick ins (Play on percentage)

Sydney
4 – Nick Blakey

22

Nick Blakey

Age

24

Ht

196cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.9

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

2.9

3star

M

2.3

2star

T

2.4

4star

MG

189.1

3star

D

8.1

2star

K

6.3

3star

HB

1.9

1star

M

2.1

2star

T

2.6

4star

MG

189.1

3star

D

7.2

2star

K

5.2

2star

HB

2.0

2star

M

1.2

2star

T

1.2

3star

(100%)
4 – Jake Lloyd

44

Jake Lloyd

Age

30

Ht

182cm

Wt

81kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.4

5star

K

14.4

5star

HB

9.0

5star

M

4.3

4star

T

1.9

4star

MG

403.9

5star

D

23.4

5star

K

14.4

5star

HB

9.0

4star

M

4.3

4star

T

1.9

3star

MG

403.9

5star

D

23.2

5star

K

13.4

5star

HB

9.8

5star

M

4.2

4star

T

2.2

4star

MG

357.4

5star

(100%)
2 – Oliver Florent

13

Oliver Florent

Age

25

Ht

184cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.7

4star

K

9.9

4star

HB

6.8

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.2

4star

MG

350.0

5star

D

18.3

4star

K

11.7

5star

HB

6.6

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.1

3star

MG

350.0

5star

D

9.6

3star

K

6.2

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

1.0

1star

T

2.2

4star

(50%)
1 – Braeden Campbell (100%)
1 – Paddy McCartin (100%)

Good mix of players/styles.

Tend not see much of Paddy Mac at the kick-ins, but he is a nice precision kick.

 

[SeanM]

Thought experiment.

Situation 1: How do you feel about out current forward line with our current list?

Situation 2: How would you feel about our forward line if we didn’t re-sign buddy last year?

I find the second situation more exciting (and is what I thought I would prefer) but surprisingly I think I prefer Buddy being there is an option, even if we play him a bit too often. Just not sure the other forwards have it together yet…

I think with 5 tall forwards for 3 positions (assuming Ladhams mostly plays ruck). I think they will all get games during the season. If we did not re-sign Franklin, we might have had to bring someone in for cheap depth.

At the moment Reid looks most useful. He is a dangerous marking target, is an effective 2nd ruck and is mobile enough to apply forward pressure.

 

[BloodySwan]

Thought experiment.

Situation 1: How do you feel about out current forward line with our current list?

Situation 2: How would you feel about our forward line if we didn’t re-sign buddy last year?

I find the second situation more exciting (and is what I thought I would prefer) but surprisingly I think I prefer Buddy being there is an option, even if we play him a bit too often. Just not sure the other forwards have it together yet…

The other forwards don't. We'd be greatly exposed without Buddy unfortunately

 

[WillHayward]

He's not, his suspension ran out on Grand Final day

Thank Christ

 

[mtooler]

Can't help but think Horse is 4 talls curious. Logan, Buddy, Reid, and McLean in the same line up.

Beveridge is trialling Darcy, Naughton Lobb and JUH right now

Opposition will cut us to ribbons if we go too tall. Buddy already getting beat to the ball drop in offence, let alone defence.

 

[mtooler]

Why isn’t Campbell taking them?

If he’s playing in the back 6 - then imagine him sending them 70m from the goal square.

Not sure he is in our back 6 or 7. Would take Fox over him.

 

[mtooler]

One thing I liked over the pre-season games that I kinda hope we persist with in the real season is Florent taking some kick-ins. I feel like he can offer more adventurous kick-ins with his line-breaking and also his ability to pull off ambitious kicks, than what Lloyd can offer in that capacity.

I've always preferred Lloyd getting the handball receive anyway, so he can run through the corridor like he was doing back in 2016/2017, when I believe he was at his best, as opposed to getting so many of his touches so deep in defence.

You just did not...

I'll settle for Blakey taking them.

 

[mtooler]

You don't put Papley in the centre bounce unless you're setting it up for him to use his speed and ground ball ability. Or make the opposition think you're doing that

Makes sense

Sam Reid matches up against other back up rucks... and is a lot better than most.

Makes sense

Yeah thats what im thinking too about Reid.

 

[Nuggetz]

FWIW here are the kick in stats v Carlton;

Kick ins (Play on percentage)

Sydney
4 – Nick Blakey (100%)
4 – Jake Lloyd (100%)
2 – Oliver Florent (50%)
1 – Braeden Campbell (100%)
1 – Paddy McCartin (100%)

Good mix of players/styles.

Tend not see much of Paddy Mac at the kick-ins, but he is a nice precision kick.

Feel like Lloyd and Paddy can nail the shortish kicks. Imo Ollie would be better utilised as an outlet or if the ball spills to the ground where he can use his evasiveness to get us out of trouble. I also don't trust Ollie's kick outs, his kicks are nice but not at the same level as others.

 

[Bloods86]

Well, pre-season's done and I think we're relatively informed as to who will be right to go in round 1 and who won't be, so here goes...

B - Dane Rampe - Tom McCartin - Nick Blakey
HB - Jake Lloyd - Paddy McCartin - Ollie Florent
C - Dylan Stephens - Errol Gulden - Justin McInerney
HF - Isaac Heeney - Logan McDonald - Sam Reid
F - Tom Papley - Buddy Franklin - Will Hayward

Foll - Peter Ladhams - Callum Mills - James Rowbottom

I/C - Luke Parker, Chad Warner, Braeden Campbell, Harry Cunningham

Sub - Matty Roberts

I would say the underlined in red are probably the ones who would want to perform well given those who would eventually be fit and trying to get back in the team.

That's my team too. Same sub. Though Florent will likely have more defensive duties so would switch with Blakey for mine (in the absence of Fox), and would have Reid closer to goal than Hayward.

 

[Nuggetz]

Buddy and the swans need to see him as the 3rd of 4th option in attack imo. Realistically what he's able to produce is better suited as our 3rd option in attack with his diminished physicality. The focal point should be around Papley/Heeney/Reid, it'll make our forward line more potent too. Imo he can still get the 2 goals/game without the same amount of opportunities.

 

[S120]

Well, pre-season's done and I think we're relatively informed as to who will be right to go in round 1 and who won't be, so here goes...

B - Dane Rampe - Tom McCartin - Nick Blakey
HB - Jake Lloyd - Paddy McCartin - Ollie Florent
C - Dylan Stephens - Errol Gulden - Justin McInerney
HF - Isaac Heeney - Logan McDonald - Sam Reid
F - Tom Papley - Buddy Franklin - Will Hayward

Foll - Peter Ladhams - Callum Mills - James Rowbottom

I/C - Luke Parker, Chad Warner, Braeden Campbell, Harry Cunningham

Sub - Matty Roberts

I would say the underlined in red are probably the ones who would want to perform well given those who would eventually be fit and trying to get back in the team.

Yep this is player-for-player what I've got too.

Roberts seems a versatile-enough option as the sub who has a bit of pace and penetration in his kicking. If not for Cunningham doing a nice job of filling the Clarke role of hard-running, tackling defensive forward, I'd have had him there as a the guy who can play anywhere on the field.

 

[Bloods86]

Yep this is player-for-player what I've got too.

Roberts seems a versatile-enough option as the sub who has a bit of pace and penetration in his kicking. If not for Cunningham doing a nice job of filling the Clarke role of hard-running, tackling defensive forward, I'd have had him there as a the guy who can play anywhere on the field.

Fox being out probably leans towards Cunningham too. Cunningham started as a forward, established himself on the wing, then moved to defence, was our no.1 small defender for a while. Not sure how you can get more versatile. He can't take the bigger guys like Fox, but he's the next best option to help Florent out if needed.

 

[caesar88]

Torn between McDonald & McLean being the dynamic that might be best for our forward line in 2023, and Buddy being Buddy.

 

[Dubai Quacker]

Torn between McDonald & McLean being the dynamic that might be best for our forward line in 2023, and Buddy being Buddy.

I’m torn between Logan, Reid and McL vs Logan, Reid and Buddy.

Controversial I know - but I’m no longer absolutely sure Buddy is Best XXII.

I feel like I should wash my mouth out with soap for even suggesting it.

 

[caesar88]

I’m torn between Logan, Reid and McL vs Logan, Reid and Buddy.

Controversial I know - but I’m no longer absolutely sure Buddy is Best XXII.

I feel like I should wash my mouth out with soap for even suggesting it.

That was basically the point I was getting at DQ.

Reid will be a lock, and I have a feeling that McDonald will be too. I prefer those two with McLean, but Buddy is the better player (until proven otherwise.)

The question is, when does "proven otherwise" become a factor? If you count his poor end to last year, combined with an underwhelming showing in the pre-season (off admittedly small opportunities), that's a block of form that's gotten every one of our other forwards dropped in the last few years.

 

[Dubai Quacker]

That was basically the point I was getting at DQ.

Reid will be a lock, and I have a feeling that McDonald will be too. I prefer those two with McLean, but Buddy is the better player (until proven otherwise.)

The question is, when does "proven otherwise" become a factor? If you count his poor end to last year, combined with an underwhelming showing in the pre-season (off admittedly small opportunities), that's a block of form that's gotten every one of our other forwards dropped in the last few years.

I agree.

But would the Swans be prepared to “Ryan O’Keefe” the Bud?

 

[caesar88]

I agree.

But would the Swans be prepared to “Ryan O’Keefe” the Bud?

We "Ryan O'Keefed" Adam Goodes, and whilst Buddy is a legend, he is not to this club what Adam Goodes was.

In the case of Goodes, he eventually worked his way back into the team and was playing pretty damn good footy too, so dropping Buddy doesn't necessarily have to mean a line through Buddy's season.

It's just about keeping them all accountable and in-form. It's what's kept our forward line so strong and functioning over the last few years. When McDonald's form has dipped, we've dropped him for McLean. When McLean's form has dipped, we've dropped him for Amartey. When Amartey's form has dipped, we've dropped him for McDonald. And the cycle continues and it's ensured we've always had a forward line not being uninterrupted by form woes.

I don't think Buddy should be exempt from that. The whole needs to be greater than the sum of its parts.

 

[Callipygian]

We didn't re-sign Bud to play him in the reserves. He will be managed, he may even play a ressies game, but he'll get in the best 22 most of the time when he's fit.

 

[BloodySwan]

Buddy is still our top goal scorer. He's not the Buddy of yesteryears but he's still our best key forward and an instant start.

Don't get caught up in potential

 

[caesar88]

Buddy is still our top goal scorer. He's not the Buddy of yesteryears but he's still our best key forward and an instant start.

Don't get caught up in potential

Got nothing to do with potential. It's about performance. Buddy's last month of 2022 was poor. A month of poor form has gotten every other forward on our list dropped in the past.

So Buddy gets a pass, because he's Buddy. Fair enough. But when does that pass expire? How many ordinary games do we accept, just because he's Buddy?

How long do we continue to overlook the forward dynamic of Reid, McDonald and McLean, which has proven to work and has looked dangerous every time they've played together, just because of Buddy's free pass?

I don't know the answer to those questions, but to pretend they're not questions worth asking seems counter-productive, and I'd hope the match selection committee certainly aren't so enamoured with Buddy's reputation that they're not asking themselves the same questions.