List Mgmt. 2024 List Mismanagement and Trading

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Exactly. It’s a bluff on their part. Make the contract offer big enough that they just can’t compete. We’ve got the space, pay what it takes. Add him to our midfield mix of Soligo, Rankine, Dawson and Crouch and now we are talking.

Geelong are a pretty obvious threat here, given McCluggage's Vic country background.

They also have Holmes out of contract to deal with.
 
If you’re getting him for only cap space then go for it
Wouldn’t pay 2 x firsts for him though
Need to understand what it is that we desperately need. A ready made midfielder. We either trade one in or we go to the draft but I dare say the draft wont get us a ready made mid. McCluggage would fit our need. But could we afford giving up 2 x firsts. Just looking at the options that people would like means there will be a lot of disappointed supporters. If we were to get McCluggage then our recruitment will be small. Or do we look at trying to keep Welsh and getting one other player but that might mean we dont get our ready made midfielder. So far on this page only, we have tossed up,

Welsh
Lukosius
McCluggage
Petty
Caleb Daniel
Oliver or Gulden
Barnett
 

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Are you listening to the latest from Dillon? Wants the end of cheap matching bids and a much heavier and fairer price paid AND it may be in for this draft.

The rorting of past drafts looks to be gone. We may get screwed yet again by the A(V)FL with Welsh

We're not in pick 5 territory, will be 8-10 IMO, just miss finals, thanks to stubborn Nick's month of vanilla midfield

Carlton have the Campo boys this year. Can’t imagine the AFL shafting a big VIC club - could be our saving grace


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In:

Luko - do gc need draft picks for academy players or want to free up some dollars? At least 1 x round 1 pick (don’t like doing 2 x round 1 unless gc sends a 1st pick back)
Welsh - 2 x round 2 picks
Hayward - $$$
Cumming - $$$

Still one stay home, small, crumbing specialist forward short with rankine and Rachelle rotating through the midfield in 2025.

Out:

Berg
Smith
McHenry
Sloane

Hopefully the Texan can do 1 more year.

Not sure what draft capital we have left for petty. Can’t see Melb taking much discount to what we offered last year.





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In:

Luko - do gc need draft picks for academy players or want to free up some dollars? At least 1 x round 1 pick (don’t like doing 2 x round 1 unless gc sends a 1st pick back)
Welsh - 2 x round 2 picks
Hayward - $$$
Cumming - $$$

Still one stay home, small, crumbing specialist forward short with rankine and Rachelle rotating through the midfield in 2025.

Out:

Berg
Smith
McHenry
Sloane

Hopefully the Texan can do 1 more year.

Not sure what draft capital we have left for petty. Can’t see Melb taking much discount to what we offered last year.





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Is it even likely we will get Luko? All the rhetoric I have heard over the years is he is happy at GC. Melbourne put up a huge fight for Petty last year, so I am not even sure 12 months will make any difference. I think he is an end of 2025 prospect at best. Would not be the least bit surprised we get none of them at the end of this year.

Be prepared for just Welsh and that is it. We go to the draft.
 
Is it even likely we will get Luko? All the rhetoric I have heard over the years is he is happy at GC. Melbourne put up a huge fight for Petty last year, so I am not even sure 12 months will make any difference. I think he is an end of 2025 prospect at best. Would not be the least bit surprised we get none of them at the end of this year.

Be prepared for just Welsh and that is it. We go to the draft.

Agree on luko - reminds me of pav 2.0

Re luko - reported this week he’s gettable


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Need to understand what it is that we desperately need. A ready made midfielder. We either trade one in or we go to the draft but I dare say the draft wont get us a ready made mid. McCluggage would fit our need. But could we afford giving up 2 x firsts. Just looking at the options that people would like means there will be a lot of disappointed supporters. If we were to get McCluggage then our recruitment will be small. Or do we look at trying to keep Welsh and getting one other player but that might mean we dont get our ready made midfielder. So far on this page only, we have tossed up,

Welsh
Lukosius
McCluggage
Petty
Caleb Daniel
Oliver or Gulden
Barnett
Cummings.

Fxxk daniel.. he’d cost..

Cummings is a free hit as we would easily outbid GWS..

He’s also younger.

Reckon cummings has “move into the middle” potential too that is untaped as he’s playing in a side full of gun mids.

Broken Hill lad. Loves Tex.
 
Jay Clark article, in the Advertiser. Saints, Geelong, Essendon and us.
Can’t imagine any club paying 1.3m AND having to hand over multiple first round draft picks




AFL trade news: St Kilda, Geelong, Adelaide and Essendon among clubs chasing Hugh McCluggage​

Brisbane are confident they will keep Hugh McCluggage, with it seeming any club wanting the gun midfielder will be forced to part with multiple first-round draft picks to land the Lion.


Clubs eyeing Brisbane Lions’ free agent Hugh McCluggage could be forced to part with multiple first-round draft picks to prise the superstar free agent back home to Victoria.
The Lions could become only the second club to match a free agency bid for the brilliant ballwinner, forcing a rival club to stump up multiple early draft selections as part of a trade.

While the Lions are confident of keeping the match winning midfielder, clubs including St Kilda, Geelong, Essendon and Adelaide are expected to come hard for McCluggage.

The 26-year-old would command a salary to move clubs upwards of $1.3 million a year following an increase in the league’s salary cap.

But the Lions would put up an enormous fight to keep McCluggage in the event he wanted to leave by almost certainly going down the same path as GWS Giants who matched a bid for Jeremy Cameron when he left the Giants for Geelong.

The Cats were forced to give up picks 13, 15 and 20 for Cameron and two second-round picks in return.

Under free agency rules, a player’s club can match a bid for a restricted free agent after eight years at the club, forcing a bigger return at the trade table.

The Lions could ask for a top-10 pick plus more, which could turn off rival clubs.

St Kilda and Adelaide are on the hunt for more midfield class, while Essendon will scour the free agency market for more top-end talent. Fremantle also has three first-round picks to add more A-Graders.

McCluggage is one of the best wingmen in the competition and has also shone in an inside midfield role

But the Lions are going to hit the jackpot at this year’s draft as they look to amass more draft points to land gun Sandringham Dragons midfielder and father-son prospect Levi Ashcroft as well as a pair of academy prospects including exciting 201cm tall Tom Gillett and playmaker Sam Marshall.

The AFL spoke to all clubs on Tuesday as part of plans to overhaul the draft system including the academy and father-son selections.

Clubs want the changes to be introduced next year as they have already planned for this year’s draft.

The Lions would be one of the most affected if the changes are introduced this year, making clubs pay more to draft academy and father-son players.
 
Geelong are a pretty obvious threat here, given McCluggage's Vic country background.

They also have Holmes out of contract to deal with.
Cal Twomey and Riley Beverage on Gettable just posted said that, "opposition clubs are starting to resign themselves to the fact Holmes is staying - hold up seems to be deciding between a two or four year contract."
 
Showdowns would be interesting with Cumming and Butts in our side, Jeremy Finlayson would be hating life.
 

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Absolutely no chance we get a look at McCluggage, he will either stay or end up at a big Vic club.

Luko and Cumming should be the main targets.... Hopefully we are just saying we are into everyone to throw other teams off, although don't think we are that smart :$
 
I can be convinced that one or more of luko and petty etc would be a good use of our draft capital if during the remainder of this year we play Soligo, Rachele and Rankine along with Dawson and hopefully Pedlar as primary mids (some can drift foward when resting) and they all excel. Then with Curtin and Edwards in the wings as extra young midfield options we might have shown we have the topline midfield already here.

Thats my conditions for non midfield use of draft capital
 
I can be convinced that one or more of luko and petty etc would be a good use of our draft capital if during the remainder of this year we play Soligo, Rachele and Rankine along with Dawson and hopefully Pedlar as primary mids (some can drift foward when resting) and they all excel. Then with Curtin and Edwards in the wings as extra young midfield options we might have shown we have the topline midfield already here.

Thats my conditions for non midfield use of draft capital
I know Pedlar had the highest clearance-winning % of any of our players last year, but I’m still yet to be convinced he’ll develop his tank enough to get consistent touches through the middle. Not grouping him with Rankine/Rachele/Soligo just yet
 
On SEN they were saying Welsh might be late first rounder? Don't know how accurate that is.

I guess with Lukosius we need to see where our picks lands. Probably a big difference between say pick 5 and say pick 10.

Currently around mid first round i think?

 
Currently around mid first round i think?

All it will take is a 3 or 4 goal game in the sanfl for us this years and Welsh will rocket up the rankings..

And I reckon he has it in him to see this happen.. kid ooozes class..
 
The only elephant in the room is all the assumptions you are making about our list.

Yes we have a few promising young players but no where near enough compared to what other teams have

Our midfield revolves around ROB, Laird and Crouch
Our key backs are Butts and Keane along with a terrible Smith
We still use Murphy, Jones and McHenry nearly every week.
Our key forwards are Fog and TT with a retiring Tex
And apart from the guys we drafted last year, nothing really in the sanfl

I'm not making any real assumptions with my post. After all, we're just at the point where we need luck to turn our start into a genuine contender - which every team has to contend with. No premierships are won without a metric shit tonne of things going your way. Heck, I even specified how that works by listing three examples where our list goes from being in a solid place to a very healthy one before we hit the off season.

Our midfield never revolved around Crouch, O'Brien and Laird. It revolved around Dawson, with the rest being supporting pieces. It worked well in the back end of last year due to Dawson balling (Adelaide was in that fabled 'premiership zone' in the 6 weeks leading to finals) and it can't be understated just how potent the Dawson--Laird combination was in 2023, seeing Adelaide jumped up in production in spite of its struggles to find a reliable third midfielder throughout the year. It struggled this year because Dawson hit a rough patch and it lost the class that Laird/Crouch needed to be paired with it. That said, one of sports fundamentals is crisis = change and due to it Soligo is becoming a permanent feature in our mix, and balling. It's a bit of a wait and see with this group, because if Dawson can find that form again, it likely is a Crouch or a Laird that falls out of a midfield role. On top of that, there are also shades in what made Dawson a midfielder for us last year in Rankine game against Carlton.

Our key backs are Murray and Keane with Worrell as support, not Butts and Keane. Nothing that's happened in the last year has risked Muz spot as our primary shutdown defender. If anything, things have kind have gone his way with our defense getting isolated at a higher click in 2024 and that's an area Muz excels in compared to Butts. However, Keanes last month should have raised eyebrows that we might just have a bolter on our hands. Equally, Smith being called terrible is an overreaction. While I'm disappointed we went back to the half back flank well, seeing I liked his wing play, but really he's been at the same click as he's been in the last four years which is rather solid for a half back flanker. The end is near, but we're not quite at the cliff edge, yet.

We use Murphy and Jones because they're solid role players, and we're getting good performance for the most part from both, as much as both had a sluggish start to the year. At this point, there is little reason to have these two anywhere other than the best 22, but they're also role players and that also means they're one or two rough performances away from SANFL. McHenry is depth and is only in the side because Murphy did a knee (or his form dropped, but we won't find out for 2 weeks). I wouldn't be willing to put money on that we'd offer Ned a contract at the end of the year, 6 years and a small stuck in no-mans-land is not a great place to be.

Yup. However, we don't know when Tex is retiring - nor do we really have a feel for what life will be like without Tex - and we probably missed an opportunity due to a bit of bad luck, with TT doing a knee injury prior to Tex hurting his back + mourning. Of course you could make the case this has been something which has held TT, in particular, back seeing there isn't a whole lot of room to perform at a high click when Tex is putting up 50+ with respectable numbers from Fog. Fog is looking more and more like someone who is capped out as a 2nd KPF, which isn't a bad thing as much as it puts stress on the main problem inflicting Adelaide at the moment.

There was going to be a point where the SANFL well would start to run dry. After all, we are getting to the point in the cycle where we need to start shedding a lot of the kids who didn't make it from the 2020--2022 draft hauls. Still, there are some handy prospects in the pipeline and ideally, it shouldn't be long before we see Curtin or Pedlar (back) in the 22. It is time to bring the list to a more standard kind of distribution, age/experience wise.

Really, though the main issue hitting Adelaide list at the moment has been the same one that's held it back since 2022. It's not the bottom end of the lineup, the likes of Murphy, Keays, Jones, even Butts. There all performing at a respectable click for the position of the lineup they're in for long stretches of time. It's the group of players that include Rachele, Thilthorpe, Michalanney, Pedlar, Soligo, Berry, Fogarty, Schoenberg, Murray, Sholl, Worrell, Keane and Cook here as well as others who had a bit of buzz around them at some point over the last three years. Most have performed well, but Adelaide is stuck in a waiting game until some of this group steps up into being the high performers who lead the club. Soligo looks like he's started doing just that, ditto Murray before an ACL.
 

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