Wooden Spoon 2017

Who will win the wooden spoon in season 2017

  • Brisbane Lions

    Votes: 44 47.8%

  • Carlton

    Votes: 31 33.7%

  • North Melbourne

    Votes: 14 15.2%

  • Gold Coast Suns

    Votes: 3 3.3%
  • Total voters
    92

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Dadadadaaaaaa

Dadadadaaaaaa

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Aug 24, 2016
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AFL Club
Carlton
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Melbourne Victory
Lots of talk about the closeness of the season leading up into the finals with just 2 and a half games separating 5th to 12th, but the wooden spoon race is well and truly open with so many unpredictable results likely in such an even season there are probably 4 teams in the running.

Brisbane have been rooted on the bottom practically since round 1, but with a favourable run home with 3 winnable home games, the wooden spoon race is well and truly open.

Brisbane Lions run home:

Western Bulldogs (Gabba)- 50/50
Gold Coast Suns (Gabba)- Likely win
Melbourne (MCG)- Loss
North Melbourne (Gabba) 50/50

Carlton run home:

Essendon (MCG)- 50/50
West Coast (Domain)- Loss
Hawthorn (Etihad)- Loss
Sydney (SCG)- Loss

North Melbourne run home:

Collingwood (Etihad)- 50/50
Hawthorn (Tasmania)- Likely loss
St Kilda (Etihad)- Likely loss
Brisbane (Gabba)- 50/50

Gold Coast Suns run home:

Fremantle (Domain)- Loss
Brisbane Lions (Gabba)- Likely loss
Essendon (Metricon)- Likely loss
Port Adelaide (Adel.O)- Loss
 

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It doesn't really matter who gets it as the Lions and Blues both have excellent squads to rebuild from. The Suns are a better side than they are performing and the Roos will bounce back in no time.

I'll punt and say the blues
 
adammania9 said:
Very strange position for Carlton - you feel they've massively improved but have fallen down three spots on the ladder since last year and might finish off the bottom only by percentage or so. Could still finish last.
Click to expand...

Carlton have actually had a surprisingly tough fixture for a bad team. As a bottom 6 team, we were 'entitled' to play 3x bottom 6 teams twice, 1 x middle 6 and 1 x top 6.

As it has panned out, we've played:
- Twice against Essendon, a 'bottom 6' from last year who are a top 8 team this year
- Twice against Richmond, a 'bottom 6' from last year who are top 4 this year
- Twice against Melbourne, a 'middle 6' from last year who are much better this year
- Twice against Sydney and Gold Coast, who held their position (top 6/bottom 6)
For a bottom 3 team, that's ended up being a tough run.

To compound that, we've also:
- only played Brisbane and Freo once each, away from home (making potential wins tougher)
- only played Port and West Coast once, away (both good teams who are occasionally shaky away from home)
- only played North once - (so we only had 1 game vs both of the other bottom 3 teams)
- the interstate teams we played once, at home, are Adelaide and GWS - both top 4 teams (ie; good enough that location shouldn't matter, although we did fluke a win over GWS).

Last year, we lucked out a bit with the fixture (with Essendon dropping, etc). So 1-2 extra wins from an easy fixture last year, 1-2 less from a tough fixture this year and we drop from 7 wins to 5 or 6, while playing slightly better footy.

This year, I think we've played a lot more young kids, too. In 2016, only Weitering really played every game as a first/second year player. But our 2015 draftees (Curnow, Cunningham, Silvagni) have become regulars, and our 2016 draftees have also played a lot as first-year players (Petrevski-Seton, Fisher, Macreadie, Williamson + Marchbank). So we've ended up with 8 regulars who are first/second year who weren't in the team last year, replacing older, less talented but more consistent guys. That also makes us look flashier/better, without actually winning more games.

TLDR: Carlton have had a much tougher fixture. We've also played lots of youngsters and our future prospects look brighter than 12 months ago, even though we will end up losing more.

edit: oh, and Carlton will probably finish last. If Brisbane win 2 (probably 50/50 bet) or they win 1 and we get brained by West Coast/Sydney away and Essendon/Hawthorn at home (also a solid bet), then we drop below them. Barring a miracle (we're very due to beat Hawthorn...) I think the spoon is ours to lose...
 
adammania9 said:
Very strange position for Carlton - you feel they've massively improved but have fallen down three spots on the ladder since last year and might finish off the bottom only by percentage or so. Could still finish last.
Click to expand...
We still have horrible depth which has been exposed lately. We had a dream run with injuries early on but a lack of scoring prevented us from winning a few more games when we were in positions to do so.

The Cripps injury couldn't have come at a worse time. Our best two way runner in Ed Curnow already out injured so our midfield is literally Murphy and Gibbs plus a bunch of tired kids. Gibbs has been negated the last two weeks as teams don't really have to worry about anyone else and we've looked awful as a result.
 
It's between Brisbane and Carlton for me, think Brisbane will finish last. For Brisbane to avoid the wooden spoon, they have to win at least two more matches and Carlton will have to lose every game for the year which could possibly happen.

However, it wouldn't surprise me if the Blues win at least one more game, so even if Brisbane finished on 6 wins, Carlton would still have a superior percentage if they also finished on 6 wins. I can't say with confidence that the Lions can win another 2 games for the year but I think they will win at least 1 to have them on 5 wins.
 
Dadadadaaaaaa said:
Lots of talk about the closeness of the season leading up into the finals with just 2 and a half games separating 5th to 12th, but the wooden spoon race is well and truly open with so many unpredictable results likely in such an even season there are probably 4 teams in the running.

Brisbane have been rooted on the bottom practically since round 1, but with a favourable run home with 3 winnable home games, the wooden spoon race is well and truly open.

Brisbane Lions run home:

Western Bulldogs (Gabba)- 50/50
Gold Coast Suns (Gabba)- Likely win
Melbourne (MCG)- Loss
North Melbourne (Gabba) 50/50

Carlton run home:

Essendon (MCG)- 50/50
West Coast (Domain)- Loss
Hawthorn (Etihad)- Loss
Sydney (SCG)- Loss

North Melbourne run home:

Collingwood (Etihad)- 50/50
Hawthorn (Tasmania)- Likely loss
St Kilda (Etihad)- Likely loss
Brisbane (Gabba)- 50/50

Gold Coast Suns run home:

Fremantle (Domain)- Loss
Brisbane Lions (Gabba)- Likely loss
Essendon (Metricon)- Likely loss
Port Adelaide (Adel.O)- Loss
Click to expand...
How are the Suns a likely win when North are not for Brisbane? :huh:
 

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btdg said:
Carlton have actually had a surprisingly tough fixture for a bad team. As a bottom 6 team, we were 'entitled' to play 3x bottom 6 teams twice, 1 x middle 6 and 1 x top 6.

As it has panned out, we've played:
- Twice against Essendon, a 'bottom 6' from last year who are a top 8 team this year
- Twice against Richmond, a 'bottom 6' from last year who are top 4 this year
- Twice against Melbourne, a 'middle 6' from last year who are much better this year
- Twice against Sydney and Gold Coast, who held their position (top 6/bottom 6)
For a bottom 3 team, that's ended up being a tough run.

To compound that, we've also:
- only played Brisbane and Freo once each, away from home (making potential wins tougher)
- only played Port and West Coast once, away (both good teams who are occasionally shaky away from home)
- only played North once - (so we only had 1 game vs both of the other bottom 3 teams)
- the interstate teams we played once, at home, are Adelaide and GWS - both top 4 teams (ie; good enough that location shouldn't matter, although we did fluke a win over GWS).

Last year, we lucked out a bit with the fixture (with Essendon dropping, etc). So 1-2 extra wins from an easy fixture last year, 1-2 less from a tough fixture this year and we drop from 7 wins to 5 or 6, while playing slightly better footy.

This year, I think we've played a lot more young kids, too. In 2016, only Weitering really played every game as a first/second year player. But our 2015 draftees (Curnow, Cunningham, Silvagni) have become regulars, and our 2016 draftees have also played a lot as first-year players (Petrevski-Seton, Fisher, Macreadie, Williamson + Marchbank). So we've ended up with 8 regulars who are first/second year who weren't in the team last year, replacing older, less talented but more consistent guys. That also makes us look flashier/better, without actually winning more games.

TLDR: Carlton have had a much tougher fixture. We've also played lots of youngsters and our future prospects look brighter than 12 months ago, even though we will end up losing more.

edit: oh, and Carlton will probably finish last. If Brisbane win 2 (probably 50/50 bet) or they win 1 and we get brained by West Coast/Sydney away and Essendon/Hawthorn at home (also a solid bet), then we drop below them. Barring a miracle (we're very due to beat Hawthorn...) I think the spoon is ours to lose...
Click to expand...

Is it of concern you can't kick 15 goals in a game? Is it some type of Paul Roos defensive plan or is it missing forwards or fear of questioning the little guy without a contract?
 
Thats Wright said:
Is it of concern you can't kick 15 goals in a game? Is it some type of Paul Roos defensive plan or is it missing forwards or fear of questioning the little guy without a contract?
Click to expand...
What? Yes, of course it is a concern.

But if we could kick 15 goals we probably wouldn't be in this thread.

Our young kp prospects are 19, 19 and 19 respectively. We have no good small forwards, lack depth in the midfield, and some injuries that are hurting. That's why we are 17th...
 
adammania9 said:
Very strange position for Carlton - you feel they've massively improved but have fallen down three spots on the ladder since last year and might finish off the bottom only by percentage or so. Could still finish last.
Click to expand...
Most supporters on the Carlton board knew Carlton would get worse before they'd get better.
 
btdg said:
What? Yes, of course it is a concern.

But if we could kick 15 goals we probably wouldn't be in this thread.

Our young kp prospects are 19, 19 and 19 respectively. We have no good small forwards, lack depth in the midfield, and some injuries that are hurting. That's why we are 17th...
Click to expand...

Fair enough. Hopefully they use this spoon well.
 
Thats Wright said:
Is it of concern you can't kick 15 goals in a game? Is it some type of Paul Roos defensive plan or is it missing forwards or fear of questioning the little guy without a contract?
Click to expand...

They are playing the game style Roos used in 14/15. Extras behind the footy to minimize scoreboard damage and a heavy focus on contested footy and lots of touches. They will have to move to a more traditional zone to win more games
 
Thats Wright said:
Is it of concern you can't kick 15 goals in a game? Is it some type of Paul Roos defensive plan or is it missing forwards or fear of questioning the little guy without a contract?
Click to expand...
Our midfield just isn't skilled enough to play any other way right now. We've got Docherty and Gibbs as the only blokes I trust to constantly hit targets and make good decisions with the ball. Other than that we've got a heap of guys prone to skill errors.
 
Topkent said:
They are playing the game style Roos used in 14/15. Extras behind the footy to minimize scoreboard damage and a heavy focus on contested footy and lots of touches. They will have to move to a more traditional zone to win more games
Click to expand...
Carlton on track to not kick 100 points in a game for the entire season; I think Roos' Melbourne in 2014 are the only other team to 'achieve' that in recent decades.
 
wagstaff said:
Carlton on track to not kick 100 points in a game for the entire season; I think Roos' Melbourne in 2014 are the only other team to 'achieve' that in recent decades.
Click to expand...

We built the defensive side of our game then expanded to attacking ball movement
 
Bounce said:
Is it percentages based because I had the last 3 all finishing on 5 wins.
Click to expand...
I have Brisbane on 6, reckon they'll beat the Dogs or the Suns. I went Dogs as dogs haven't won at the Gabba since 2009
North on 6, Carlton on 5, Freo and GC on 8
 

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