Prediction Who will be better in 2025? Carlton or Hawthorn

[Mr Meow]

The last 3 times the Hawks have played Carlton, Nash has played and Cripps has averaged:

28 Disposals
14 Contested possessions
7.3 Clearances
8 Score Involvements
8 Tackles

"Negated"

A lot of these "Club A vs Club B" threads give off vibes of "Club A supporters half watched 1 or 2 of Club B's games and vice versa".

Which a) makes me think I watch too much footy and b) does question the value of the threads.

"I like my team"
"Well I like my team"

/end thread?

(not disagreeing with you btw, rather some of the weird statements we've seen in here)

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

A lot of these "Club A vs Club B" threads give off vibes of "Club A supporters half watched 1 or 2 of Club B's games and vice versa".

Which a) makes me think I watch too much footy and b) does question the value of the threads.

"I like my team"
"Well I like my team"

/end thread?

I watch every game bar the genuine wooden spoon contests most weeks. Would be able to name just about every player in any given game and tell you my opinion on 90% of them. I agree however, that some posters in these threads don't seem to have watched much of the other team play over the last 24 or so months.

 

[H00t]

Carlton plays a very individualistic game style. It’s based around their top 5 having big games.

Very different to the Hawks who have a much more even spread across the field.

Stat wise the hawks players aren’t going to look as strong but together as a team it’s a much more effective style and should hold us in good stead as they mature as a group.

 

[Thrawn]

Top 8 sides don't go 0 - 60 in an Elimination Final, either...

GWS were one of the best 4 sides in 2024, despite failing to make a Preliminary Final.

The end result was a 28 point loss, not 128. Top 8 sides make the top 8. If Freo (or you for that matter) were good enough, you would've been there instead.

Well they're clearly not if they failed when it was most important - especially considering how it was done.

 

[Thrawn]

I did say moving forward! But that last game we played where the Hawks absolutely smashed Carlton Cripps and Nash had the same amount of possessions so I guess that’s close to being “Negated” . Love this pic even while going for his throat …. he ain’t going anywhere

View attachment 2201427

You were playing a benchless Carlton, to be fair.

 

[matey]

You were playing a benchless Carlton, to be fair.

Yeah at the end ….. but the game was essentially turned/done when Cunrow and a bench was still available. Was at the game but Cunrow went off in the 3rd from memory? can’t remember

 

[Thrawn]

Yeah at the end ….. but the game was essentially turned/done when Cunrow and a bench was still available. Was at the game but Cunrow went off in the 3rd from memory? can’t remember

Two players off in the first quarter, then a few spread out throughout the match.

Curnow shouldn't have even played. Took a big risk playing him, he was proppy for the past few weeks. But of course, Brad Lloyd's wisdom shone through.

 

[matey]

Two players off in the first quarter, then a few spread out throughout the match.

Curnow shouldn't have even played. Took a big risk playing him, he was proppy for the past few weeks. But of course, Brad Lloyd's wisdom shone through.

Don’t know the Carlton list well enough but every player walking out on the field is expected to be close to 100% and if their 22-28 player is not better than that player carrying an injury well depth could be an issue.

Hawks didn’t have a player on the bench in the 2008 granny but still won. Croad went down in the first few minutes, Young and Ellis didn’t see most of the game and there was someone else

 

[carlton_99]

Carlton plays a very individualistic game style. It’s based around their top 5 having big games.

Very different to the Hawks who have a much more even spread across the field.

Stat wise the hawks players aren’t going to look as strong but together as a team it’s a much more effective style and should hold us in good stead as they mature as a group.

Playing to your strengths is not an individualistic game plan but instead using the personnel you have to establish a system where players have very clear roles they can execute. Since Voss has taken over this has largely been to establish a very strong contested brand of footy due to a more inside-heavy midfield core (Cripps/Hewett/Kennedy etc). Another factor is our strong key position forwards in Curnow and McKay that excel in one-on-one situations and so we try and get the ball long to them. This may not look pretty at times but it has been largely effective at turning us from a bottom 6 club to a team that has made back to back finals series and have made it to a Preliminary Final for the first time since 2000.

Carlton just like any other team play their best football when they have an even spread of performances across the field. This is not the NBA and teams do not win games because of 4 or 5 players playing well and so I don't believe for one second that our game style is "individualistic". The focus is always going to be on a team's best players especially when they are as good as the ones we have but Carlton don't win games in 2024 without significant performances from the likes of Nic Newman, Blake Acres, Elijah Hollands, Lachie Fogarty, Mitch McGovern, George Hewett, Adam Saad, Jordan Boyd, Alex Cincotta, Zac Williams etc. These types of players executing their role is critical to Carlton performing at their best and we have won games without our core group playing that well because of those players.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Playing to your strengths is not an individualistic game plan but instead using the personnel you have to establish a system where players have very clear roles they can execute. Since Voss has taken over this has largely been to establish a very strong contested brand of footy due to a more inside-heavy midfield core (Cripps/Hewett/Kennedy etc). Another factor is our strong key position forwards in Curnow and McKay that excel in one-on-one situations and so we try and get the ball long to them. This may not look pretty at times but it has been largely effective at turning us from a bottom 6 club to a team that has made back to back finals series and have made it to a Preliminary Final for the first time since 2000.

Carlton just like any other team play their best football when they have an even spread of performances across the field. This is not the NBA and teams do not win games because of 4 or 5 players playing well and so I don't believe for one second that our game style is "individualistic". The focus is always going to be on a team's best players especially when they are as good as the ones we have but Carlton don't win games in 2024 without significant performances from the likes of Nic Newman, Blake Acres, Elijah Hollands, Lachie Fogarty, Mitch McGovern, George Hewett, Adam Saad, Jordan Boyd etc. These types of players executing their role is critical to Carlton performing at their best and we have won games without our core group playing that well because of those players.

It's as if Richmond in 2017 didn't build their entire game plan around maximizing Dusty, Rance, Reiwoltd and Cotchin. Must have imagined it.

Always entertaining to find out from oppo fans that outside our top 5-6 players we don't actually field a team at all, they just watch from the sidelines or something.

 

[carlton_99]

A lot of these "Club A vs Club B" threads give off vibes of "Club A supporters half watched 1 or 2 of Club B's games and vice versa".

Which a) makes me think I watch too much footy and b) does question the value of the threads.

"I like my team"
"Well I like my team"

/end thread?

(not disagreeing with you btw, rather some of the weird statements we've seen in here)

I agree with this to a large extent. We have had some disagreements on footy matters in the past but I think it's clear from those conversations that you watch a lot of non-Geelong games. Hopefully I have come across in a similar way to you as well - my SuperCoach addiction makes watching most games each week pretty much a must. And so my opinions on any footy matter in these more serious threads are 100% genuine and only made if I feel like I'm informed on the topic.

Where we may disagree slightly is I don't think having people that just know their team well in these threads diminishes the value of the thread. I kind of like it because it's a good way to get a gauge of your own thoughts about a certain team with the fans of that team that watch them and more importantly analyse them more than anyone. Something like the Day/Newcombe discussion was really interesting as I probably have a different opinion to most on this thread. I would actually take Day before Newcombe if I was building a team tomorrow - I rate both highly but prefer Day's skillset just a bit more. But hearing the thoughts of the Hawks fans on here will make me pay more attention to the stuff Newcombe is doing. So I guess there are positives and negatives.

 

[Fadge]

The end result was a 28 point loss, not 128. Top 8 sides make the top 8. If Freo (or you for that matter) were good enough, you would've been there instead.

Well they're clearly not if they failed when it was most important - especially considering how it was done.

It was in response to your comment 'Top 4 sides don't blow out in straight sets'.

If the ladder can be skewed at the end of home and away with 'false' top 4 sides, why can't it also be skewed with 'false' 5th to 8th sides?

And why can't GWS be rated a top 4 side, if they lost both their finals to the eventual Grand Finalists by a combined margin of 8 points (and also finished the home and away season in the top 4)?

 

[Leeda]

A lot of these "Club A vs Club B" threads give off vibes of "Club A supporters half watched 1 or 2 of Club B's games and vice versa".

Which a) makes me think I watch too much footy and b) does question the value of the threads.

"I like my team"
"Well I like my team"

/end thread?

(not disagreeing with you btw, rather some of the weird statements we've seen in here)

Calligraphy is your most winning achievement.....the cattle are lowing and the birds are....flying on all cylinders....gas is cheap,...

 

[doppleganger]

It was in response to your comment 'Top 4 sides don't blow out in straight sets'.

Top 4 sides are the only teams who can lose in straight sets.

Top 4 teams play each other in QF, a tougher match-up as 2 Top 4 teams must lose, but with the reward of a home PF to the victor.

The losers go to a SF, and if have a single off day then supposedly they no longer are a top 4 team?

 

[Robertio]

Top 4 sides are the only teams who can lose in straight sets.

Top 4 teams play each other in QF, a tougher match-up as 2 Top 4 teams must lose, but with the reward of a home PF to the victor.

The losers go to a SF, and if have a single off day then supposedly they no longer are a top 4 team?

That's about right mate, the top 4 teams are the teams that won enough games to get there, if you get beat the week before a prelim you're no longer a top 4 side, i feel we had this discussion yesterday somewhere else.

 

[Hawkboy62]

I'm happy to be death-riding Carlton this year.

Hawthorn

I agree with this to a large extent. We have had some disagreements on footy matters in the past but I think it's clear from those conversations that you watch a lot of non-Geelong games. Hopefully I have come across in a similar way to you as well - my SuperCoach addiction makes watching most games each week pretty much a must. And so my opinions on any footy matter in these more serious threads are 100% genuine and only made if I feel like I'm informed on the topic.

Where we may disagree slightly is I don't think having people that just know their team well in these threads diminishes the value of the thread. I kind of like it because it's a good way to get a gauge of your own thoughts about a certain team with the fans of that team that watch them and more importantly analyse them more than anyone. Something like the Day/Newcombe discussion was really interesting as I probably have a different opinion to most on this thread. I would actually take Day before Newcombe if I was building a team tomorrow - I rate both highly but prefer Day's skillset just a bit more. But hearing the thoughts of the Hawks fans on here will make me pay more attention to the stuff Newcombe is doing. So I guess there are positives and negatives.

The Hawthorn inside mids are often underrated being relatively low draft acquisitions. Worpel Pick 45 2017 Draft, Nash, Cat B rookie 2018, Newcombe 2021 MSD. They are all decent size and like to tackle. They are prime/near prime age being 26 (at start of RO), 26 and 24 so improvement is still possible.

As well as internal club awards Newcombe won the AFLCA award for Best Young Player in 2022, (Walsh 2020, Anderson/Serong 2021, Daicos 2023, Sheezel 2024), was in the AA squad 2023 and received 24 Brownlow votes in 2024. Approaching Elite territory.

Worpel polled 14 Brownlow votes last year and he is consistently looking for and hitting targets inside 50, instead of the instinctive "helicopter" which he, and Tom Mitchell used. Good synergy with the other mids. Newcombe often invites the opposition to come and tackle him as he is strong enough to get the handball off to a free player.

Nash is the hard tackling 6'6"run with player who many opposition mids don't like. Kept Bont to 6 first half possessions in the EF. Was a failed project forward and defender and nearly delisted before Mitchell trialed him as a mid at Box Hill. Can still improve.

Day, pick 13 in the 2019 Super Draft, provides some silkiness to the inside brutes. Often targeted because of his light frame. His last injury was in Rd21 when he was pushed in a central bounce. The Dancing Day met a brick wall, Newcombe.

Returning to the original topic of the thread I'm happy to be death riding Carlton.

Better coaching and not a great disparity in top liners. Hawthorn has better depth, more run, and some better ball users, with most of the list established but still improving. Weddle to play his 50th game this season and Newcombe may get to his hundredth. The rat pack of Moore, Ginnivan, Watson and MacDonald are all hard running and link up well. Also skillful with "contested ball" situations near goal. Lol!

 

[H00t]

Playing to your strengths is not an individualistic game plan but instead using the personnel you have to establish a system where players have very clear roles they can execute. Since Voss has taken over this has largely been to establish a very strong contested brand of footy due to a more inside-heavy midfield core (Cripps/Hewett/Kennedy etc). Another factor is our strong key position forwards in Curnow and McKay that excel in one-on-one situations and so we try and get the ball long to them. This may not look pretty at times but it has been largely effective at turning us from a bottom 6 club to a team that has made back to back finals series and have made it to a Preliminary Final for the first time since 2000.

Carlton just like any other team play their best football when they have an even spread of performances across the field. This is not the NBA and teams do not win games because of 4 or 5 players playing well and so I don't believe for one second that our game style is "individualistic". The focus is always going to be on a team's best players especially when they are as good as the ones we have but Carlton don't win games in 2024 without significant performances from the likes of Nic Newman, Blake Acres, Elijah Hollands, Lachie Fogarty, Mitch McGovern, George Hewett, Adam Saad, Jordan Boyd, Alex Cincotta, Zac Williams etc. These types of players executing their role is critical to Carlton performing at their best and we have won games without our core group playing that well because of those players.

Playing to your strengths isn’t individualistic. The way Carlton plays is.

Every team plays better when they get an even spread. That’s why gameplans are typically designed around maximising their whole team.

Carlton have got a contested brand of footy in that they rely on Cripps, Walsh and Hewett to win the ball in contested situations. They also defend those situations terribly and where the most heavily scored against top 8 team. And the 14th worst team in scores against. That’s where your whole team comes into it. To defend when you don’t win the ball. One of the most important aspects of playing a contested style of footy.

Carlton plays better when the players outside their top 5 play well. They just don’t play in a way to get the most out of these players.

 

[carlton_99]

Playing to your strengths isn’t individualistic. The way Carlton plays is.

Every team plays better when they get an even spread. That’s why gameplans are typically designed around maximising their whole team.

Carlton have got a contested brand of footy in that they rely on Cripps, Walsh and Hewett to win the ball in contested situations. They also defend those situations terribly and where the most heavily scored against top 8 team. And the 14th worst team in scores against. That’s where your whole team comes into it. To defend when you don’t win the ball. One of the most important aspects of playing a contested style of footy.

Carlton plays better when the players outside their top 5 play well. They just don’t play in a way to get the most out of these players.

Carlton were the best team at defending stoppages in 2023 and were one of the best defences based on points against in that year. So clearly the game plan which was pretty similar in 23' and 24' is not the reason for the drop off defensively.

In my opinion it was more the midfield lacking balance which was exacerbated with Cerra being out so much in 2024 compared to 2023. Cripps/Hewett/Kennedy midfield rotations meant we were too inside heavy, slow and as they get attracted to the ball we are vulnerable going the other way if the ball gets to the outside. Trading Kennedy, bringing in Smith who can effectively get from outside to inside, bringing back hopefully a healthy Cerra who is probably our best two-way mid and increasing the minutes of some more outside type players in the midfield like E.Hollands should help alleviate this issue. Even Docherty who missed the whole of 2024 and who was getting on ball minutes in 2023 helps defensively not only with him being good both ways but just his general leadership/on-field coaching.

If Carlton can just get back to defending stoppage anything close to the way they were in 2023 they will be a strong defensive force. Defending turnover is probably the hardest part of defence and we did that extremely well in 2024 (5th best in AFL for points against from turnover). Stoppage was the issue (3rd worst in AFL for points against from stoppage).

 

[H00t]

It's as if Richmond in 2017 didn't build their entire game plan around maximizing Dusty, Rance, Reiwoltd and Cotchin. Must have imagined it.

Always entertaining to find out from oppo fans that outside our top 5-6 players we don't actually field a team at all, they just watch from the sidelines or something.

Tigers played their best footy without Rance as well as Cotchin played an entirely supportive role all through their 3 flags. Riewoldt only had 2 elite years and two very average years from 2017-20

Martin played extremely well throughout but was also pretty much not needed as the tigers would have won their finals without him.

Tigers won on the back of manic pressure from the entirety of their best 22 (excluding Martin). They had full buy in and everyone pulled their weight. They maximised the abilities of the 16-22 players on their list. Something they didn’t do pre 2017. Where they were more like the current Carlton team strong top 6 players then a huge drop off.

It’s not that Carlton doesn’t field a team outside of their best 5-6 players it’s that there is such a huge drop off especially towards the bottom 6-8 players that run out for you each week. They don’t have to be game winners but getting more out of them will be how Carlton improves even if that comes with a slight drop off from their top 6 players.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Tigers played their best footy without Rance as well as Cotchin played an entirely supportive role all through their 3 flags. Riewoldt only had 2 elite years and two very average years from 2017-20

Martin played extremely well throughout but was also pretty much not needed as the tigers would have won their finals without him.

Tigers won on the back of manic pressure from the entirety of their best 22 (excluding Martin). They had full buy in and everyone pulled their weight. They maximised the abilities of the 16-22 players on their list. Something they didn’t do pre 2017. Where they were more like the current Carlton team strong top 6 players then a huge drop off.

It’s not that Carlton doesn’t field a team outside of their best 5-6 players it’s that there is such a huge drop off especially towards the bottom 6-8 players that run out for you each week. They don’t have to be game winners but getting more out of them will be how Carlton improves even if that comes with a slight drop off from their top 6 players.

This is a troll post right? Tigers would have won without Dusty?????

 

[carlton_99]

Tigers played their best footy without Rance

Rance played 25 games in 2017 and 24 games in 2018 so how exactly were Richmond playing their best footy without him when he was there pretty much every game?

 

[H00t]

Carlton were the best team at defending stoppages in 2023 and were one of the best defences based on points against in that year. So clearly the game plan which was pretty similar in 23' and 24' is not the reason for the drop off defensively.

In my opinion it was more the midfield lacking balance which was exacerbated with Cerra being out so much in 2024 compared to 2023. Cripps/Hewett/Kennedy midfield rotations meant we were too inside heavy, slow and as they get attracted to the ball we are vulnerable going the other way if the ball gets to the outside. Trading Kennedy, bringing in Smith who can effectively get from outside to inside, bringing back hopefully a healthy Cerra who is probably our best two-way mid and increasing the minutes of some more outside type players in the midfield like E.Hollands should help alleviate this issue. Even Docherty who missed the whole of 2024 and who was getting on ball minutes in 2023 helps defensively not only with him being good both ways but just his general leadership/on-field coaching.

If Carlton can just get back to defending stoppage anything close to the way they were in 2023 they will be a strong defensive force. Defending turnover is probably the hardest part of defence and we did that extremely well in 2024 (5th best in AFL for points against from turnover). Stoppage was the issue (3rd worst in AFL for points against from stoppage).

Carlton’s midfield definitely looked unbalanced last year. Fixing the defensive side of that should help a bit.

The one thing you guys did well last year was score heavily. It looked to me like you guys had set up more offensively around the ground. Which lead to more scoring but higher scores against.

There’s only two main sources of scoring in the AFL. Conceding less in one aspect often means conceding more from the other. So while balancing your midfield will help. Getting the right mix of offence and defence across the board will be important.

 

[carlton_99]

Carlton’s midfield definitely looked unbalanced last year. Fixing the defensive side of that should help a bit.

The one thing you guys did well last year was score heavily. It looked to me like you guys had set up more offensively around the ground. Which lead to more scoring but higher scores against.

There’s only two main sources of scoring in the AFL. Conceding less in one aspect often means conceding more from the other. So while balancing your midfield will help. Getting the right mix of offence and defence across the board will be important.

Yes getting the balance right is 100% important but I do think when you look at the score sources defending stoppage is the clear anomaly in our profile and is the area we need to urgently fix. As we were the best in the AFL at it in 2023 I think the coaches will be all over it even if it does mean we have to sacrifice a little bit of scoring.

Stoppage (in 2024)
Points for: 37.0 per game (4th in AFL)
Points against: 38.0 per game (16th in AFL)

Turnover (in 2024)
Points for: 52.0 per game (4th in AFL)
Points against: 43.0 per game (5th in AFL)

 

[H00t]

This is a troll post right? Tigers would have won without Dusty?????

Dusty played extremely well all four years. The finals they won outside the Port game weren’t close. It was a full team demolition job.

So while Dusty fairly gets the accolades it was the tigers as a whole who got the wins. They simply ran over teams.

 

[H00t]

And this is where I stopped reading. Rance played 25 games in 2017 and 24 games in 2018 so how exactly were Richmond playing their best footy without him when he was there pretty much every game?

2 flags to 1 without Rance. Their defence improved as they moved away from Rance being on his own to playing more as a defensive unit. Cox destroyed Rance cost them 2018.

Rance was a great defender but having 6 defenders working together is better than 1 trying to do most of the work as good as he was. It took some adjusting for them when Rance went down but it resulted in a better defensive output.