AFLW West Coast vs Port Adelaide - Round 5 @ Lathlain

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Hopefully we win, but I'm presuming we'll be without Ash Saint through suspension, and Tahau long term with that knee. So a win isn't going to be easy when 2 of our best are gone.
 
Did some quick numbers on the disparity in the AFLW. As I'm a firm believer that a 2 division relegation system should be in place.

So far this season we are:
  • 1-0 @ 117% Vs last years bottom 9.
  • 0-3 @ 47% V last years top 9.

Of 18 matches between last years top 9 and bottom 9.
  • Only 3 upsets have occurred.
  • All 3 top 9 losers, were in the bottom 4 of the last years top 9.
  • Look at the percentages of the top 9 Vs bottom 9.
  • Adelaide cashing in wins and percentage against bottom sides, North, Melb and Bris gaining huge percentage.

Out of Group Games - top 9 groupWLBottom 9 group
Adel
3​
0​
247%​
StK1169%
Bris
2​
0​
281%​
Carlton1255%
North
2​
0​
555%​
Haw1152%
Melb
2​
0​
512%​
Freo0154%
Geel
2​
0​
166%​
Ess0142%
Rich
2​
0​
135%​
WC0126%
GC
1​
1​
218%​
Syd0247%
Coll
1​
1​
113%​
GWS0336%
WB
0​
1​
85%​
Port 0347%

Some of the percentage discrepancies between playing within the top 9 group Vs out :
North 112% -> 555% (442% Up)
Melb 217% -> 512% (295%)
Bris 95% -> 281% (187%)

The only exceptions to boosted percentage are Adelaide who has only played 1 top 9 game and Geelong who have been pretty consistent.


No team in the bottom 9 has a better percentage against top 9 sides than they do against the bottom 9. Including some huge swings:
Carlton 321% -> 55% (despite an upset win)
Ess 158% -> 42% (despite being 3-0 inside bottom 9 games)
Syd 127% -> 47%


If we had separated the comp into divisions. The ladders would look more like this.

Top 9WLBottom 9WL
Melb
2​
0​
217%​
Ess
3​
0​
158%​
GC
2​
0​
125%​
Syd
2​
0​
127%​
Adel
1​
0​
342%​
Freo
2​
1​
101%​
Geel
1​
1​
181%​
Carlton
1​
0​
321%​
North
1​
1​
112%​
Port
1​
0​
117%​
Bris
1​
1​
95%​
GWS
0​
1​
90%​
Rich
1​
1​
69%​
Stk
0​
2​
79%​
Coll
0​
2​
49%​
Haw
0​
2​
62%​
WB
0​
3​
52%​
WC
0​
3​
46%​


Also worth noting that 2 of the 3 top 9 teams that have suffered an upset, Coll and WB, are also on the bottom of their division. The other upset, was a 2 point win by Carlton over GC. GC playing away, round 1, against a GC that finished 9th in 2022.

Worth noting the inequity in the draw shown here, with Port, GWS & Carlton having only 1 game Vs other bottom 9 sides. While Essendon & Freo who have had 3.



Had we had 2 divisions:
  • The mostly unbalanced top 9 Vs bottom 9 games would be avoided and the competitions integrity and competitiveness would improve.
  • The incredible inbalance in the fixture could be avoided, by pitting teams against the same teams in their div. Play 16 games a year, your div twice, H&A, it's easily achievable.
  • The top 3 group at the top of div 2, despite having all lost games to div 1 teams, would be playing for promotion. In the current format, if they do pinch a top 8 spot, it will be largely on the back of the imbalance in the draw.
  • Coll (1-3) and WB (0-4) would now be playing to avoid relegation in their div, rather than nothing, despite their horror starts


What I haven't considered here is also just how much the scoring has gone up for those top 9 sides when playing the lower sides. They are not just winning, and comfortably, but they are scoring far bigger than before.

Feels like there is a lot more that could be picked through here, but I'll keep an eye on this as the year goes and see how it unfolds.
 
Last edited:

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Did some quick numbers on the disparity in the AFLW. As I'm a firm believer that a 2 division relegation system should be in place.

So far this season we are:
  • 1-0 @ 117% Vs last years bottom 9.
  • 0-3 @ 47% V last years top 9.

Of 18 matches between last years top 9 and bottom 9.
  • Only 3 upsets have occurred.
  • All 3 top 9 losers, were in the bottom 4 of the last years top 9.
  • Look at the percentages of the top 9 Vs bottom 9.
  • Adelaide cashing in wins and percentage against bottom sides, North, Melb and Bris gaining huge percentage.

Out of Group Games - top 9 groupWLBottom 9 group
Adel
3​
0​
247%​
StK1169%
Bris
2​
0​
281%​
Carlton1255%
North
2​
0​
555%​
Haw1152%
Melb
2​
0​
512%​
Freo0154%
Geel
2​
0​
166%​
Ess0142%
Rich
2​
0​
135%​
WC0126%
GC
1​
1​
218%​
Syd0247%
Coll
1​
1​
113%​
GWS0336%
WB
0​
1​
85%​
Port0347%

Some of the percentage discrepancies between playing within the top 9 group Vs out :
North 112% -> 555% (442% Up)
Melb 217% -> 512% (295%)
Bris 95% -> 281% (187%)

The only exceptions to boosted percentage are Adelaide who has only played 1 top 9 game and Geelong who have been pretty consistent.


No team in the bottom 9 has a better percentage against top 9 sides than they do against the bottom 9. Including some huge swings:
Carlton 321% -> 55% (despite an upset win)
Ess 158% -> 42% (despite being 3-0 inside bottom 9 games)
Syd 127% -> 47%


If we had separated the comp into divisions. The ladders would look more like this.

Top 9WLBottom 9WL
Melb
2​
0​
217%​
Ess
3​
0​
158%​
GC
2​
0​
125%​
Syd
2​
0​
127%​
Adel
1​
0​
342%​
Freo
2​
1​
101%​
Geel
1​
1​
181%​
Carlton
1​
0​
321%​
North
1​
1​
112%​
Port
1​
0​
117%​
Bris
1​
1​
95%​
GWS
0​
1​
90%​
Rich
1​
1​
69%​
Stk
0​
2​
79%​
Coll
0​
2​
49%​
Haw
0​
2​
62%​
WB
0​
3​
52%​
WC
0​
3​
46%​


Also worth noting that 2 of the 3 top 9 teams that have suffered an upset, Coll and WB, are also on the bottom of their division. The other upset, was a 2 point win by Carlton over GC. GC playing away, round 1, against a GC that finished 9th in 2022.

Worth noting the inequity in the draw shown here, with Port, GWS & Carlton having only 1 game Vs other bottom 9 sides. While Essendon & Freo who have had 3.



Had we had 2 divisions:
  • The mostly unbalanced top 9 Vs bottom 9 games would be avoided and the competitions integrity and competitiveness would improve.
  • The incredible inbalance in the fixture could be avoided, by pitting teams against the same teams in their div. Play 16 games a year, your div twice, H&A, it's easily achievable.
  • The top 3 group at the top of div 2, despite having all lost games to div 1 teams, would be playing for promotion. In the current format, if they do pinch a top 8 spot, it will be largely on the back of the imbalance in the draw.
  • Coll (1-3) and WB (0-4) would now be playing to avoid relegation in their div, rather than nothing, despite their horror starts


What I haven't considered here is also just how much the scoring has gone up for those top 9 sides when playing the lower sides. They are not just winning, and comfortably, but they are scoring far bigger than before.

Feels like there is a lot more that could be picked through here, but I'll keep an eye on this as the year goes and see how it unfolds.
Does feel like something needs to be done. This would also allow for an easy 8 game season which hopefully would get more people showing up.

The question the AFL would be asking is are people actually going to show up to see their side in the bottom conference? Also there would be less games and less finals this way.
 

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AFLW West Coast vs Port Adelaide - Round 5 @ Lathlain

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