The trajectories of contenders in 2025

[PerthBoy86]

Still early, but I thought it'd be interesting to briefly speculate who the main contenders will be in 2025, and what factors will play into their success. Not a ladder prediction thread.

Brisbane: the reigning premiers have a ton of key players back, L.Ash, you'd think they'll be stronger and should finish top 4. Only question is if Joe retires and how they'll replace him. Hippy is obviously not a no 1 forward. Will be clear favourites round 1 barring some disaster pre preseason.

Sydney: most will predict the usual post GF fall but have a feeling the Swans will be out for blood (no pun intended) and be up there again. Need for grunt/contested beasts, an actual KPF (sorry Joel and Logan) and bolstered defence. If they do make the gf the demons will be there, they might sack Horse and do a Geelong 94-95.

GWS: second faves for mine. Have all the pieces, just need to rectify the whole controlling momentum thing.

Geelong: annoyingly will be up there, but feel they've overachieved this season. B. Smith won't do that much, imo. Will play finals but not do much, this year was ther chance.

Hawthorn: many predict them to even be flag faves, but they won't have the element of surprise this year. Barrass and Battle will make them a defensive powerhouse, but I still feel they need a tall up forward.

Bulldogs: if Sydney are gf chokers and Port are pf chokers, the Dogs are top 4 chokers. I think this is the season they finally make top 4, though. Darcy will be a monster, and JUH should improve. Probably 3rd faves.

Carlton: unfortunately for Blues fans I don't see them as contenders in 25. They lack structure and a gameplan, and their bottom 6 is bottom 6 quality.

Port: like Carlton, let down by their role players. I feel they'll slide in 2025 and will either just make or miss finals. I think Hinkley will coach one more season.

Freo: always hard to predict, but I think they'll make finals but need a few pieces to truly contend. Don't know if J.Lo and the team has the mongrel to go all the way.

St Kilda: still a mediocre to decent side overall, a smoky for top 4 but with straight sets imo.

Collingwood: like Port I think 6-10. 2026 imo is when they really bottom out.

Don't see the rest featuring. Adelaide might make finals, but are still very average. Melbourne will be bottom 4 imo. Essendon same old same old. Can't see the Eagles off the bottom 4, but I'll be stoked if we finish 14th lol.

 

[Drought Break]

Can’t argue with that list. Lions will be extremely hard to beat especially if Daniher stays. Add the big O, Coleman, Doedee and another Ashcroft from there GF side.

 

[PerthBoy86]

Can’t argue with that list. Lions will be extremely hard to beat especially if Daniher stays. Add the big O, Coleman, Doedee and another Ashcroft from there GF side.

I really hope he goes one more year. I want to see GWS win it, but if not Brisbane going b2b is preferable to any other result.

 

[Defabs]

I think Collingwood could do something similar to Geelong (or Haw in 2018) and potentially make the top 4 next year. Pies season was actually ok apart from the hangover of the first three rounds. (12-2-6 record after 3 games)


They had a positive win loss record against the top 8 teams and had injuries to key players throughout the season. I worry that any charge up the ladder will be a false dawn as they are going to be hit with many retirements over two seasons. It could get ugly from 2026 but they could potentially win the flag next season if things go their way

 

[PerthBoy86]

I think Collingwood could do something similar to Geelong (or Haw in 2018) and potentially make the top 4 next year. Pies season was actually ok apart from the hangover of the first three rounds. (12-2-6 record after 3 games)


They had a positive win loss record against the top 8 teams and had injuries to key players throughout the season. I worry that any charge up the ladder will be a false dawn as they are going to be hit with many retirements over two seasons. It could get ugly from 2026 but they could potentially win the flag next season if things go their way

They could. They beat the premiers twice, which was an effort. I think their round 21 was it victory of the Lions might be their best victory.

Then you look at being 54 points down to North, the Hawthorn loss, and quite a few close ones, and you wonder. They benefited from a weak season imo.

Be an interesting watch.

 

[adammania9]

Sydney watch. History is not kind to sides that lose grand finals by 40 points or more. Dating back to Geelong 94-95 who last beat this hurdle, the last 13 teams to lose a GF by 40+ were unable to win a final the next season. Only one side managed to make top four only to go out in straight sets, granted that was Sydney in 2015.

It's hard to back them to seriously contend again when the data so strongly suggests that a defeat like that carries a serious mental burden for at least the next year. Can they finally break the duck?

For those interested:
1995: Geelong lose by 61. Finish 7th in 1996 and lose. Out.
1996: Sydney lose by 43. Finish 7th in 1997 and lose. Out.
2000: Melbourne lose by 60. Finish 11th in 2001.
2003: Collingwood lose by 50. Finish 13th in 2004.
2004: Brisbane Lions lose by 40. Finish 11th in 2005.
2007: Port Adelaide lose by 119. Finish 13th in 2008.
2010: St Kilda lose by 56. Finish 6th in 2011 and lose. Out.
2014: Sydney lose by 63. Finish 4th in 2015 and lost twice. Out.
2015: West Coast lose by 46. Finish 6th in 2016 and lose. Out.
2017: Adelaide lose by 48. Finish 12th in 2018.
2019: GWS lose by 89. Finish 10th in 2020.
2021: Western Bulldogs lose by 74. Finish 8th in 2022 and lose. Out.
2022: Sydney lose by 81. Finish 8th in 2023 and lose. Out.

 

[joe444]

Geelong: annoyingly will be up there, but feel they've overachieved this season. B. Smith won't do that much, imo. Will play finals but not do much, this year was ther chance.

So, the same prediction as the last sixteen years, shall we?

 

[JackFlash]

The only trajectory i see for Brisbane is down, they could struggle in 2025.

 

[Toffee Lion]

The only trajectory i see for Brisbane is down, they could struggle in 2025.

I agree. I think we only win the flag by 20 points next year. Sad times ahead.

 

[PerthBoy86]

The only trajectory i see for Brisbane is down, they could struggle in 2025.

Why?

 

[HTPunter]

Will be an interesting year. Most years there is a bolter - Essendon was somewhat that team for a large part of the year, then Fremantle, but ultimately no one really jumped up into the 4. Hawthorn ended up being the bolter but secured a spot in the finals late.

I think Freo are probably best placed to be the bolter, but also don’t rate their coach. Carlton too (although the bolter often comes from non finals), except I also don’t rate their coach. Voss would be nowhere without the stars in his side.

Ultimately there’s probably 8 clubs thinking they should be top 4, 15 thinking they should play finals…

Top 4 aspirants - Brisbane, Carlton, Collingwood, Geelong, GWS, Hawthorn, Port, Sydney

I’d expect 3 of the top 4 at a minimum to come from here, and 6 of the finalists. The 4-5 that miss out on the 4 will be disappointed, the 2 that don’t make finals will make some BIG changes - whether it be wholesale squad changes, or the coach. Collingwood, Geelong, Sydney & Brisbane have a lot of older players that could be forced out in a down year now. Port, Sydney & Carlton would be looking at the coach closely.

Finals aspirants (somewhat in order of likelihood to play finals & level of desperation to make it) - Fremantle, Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, Essendon, St Kilda, Gold Coast, Adelaide

A somewhat ok chance at 1 making the 4. Expect 2 to make the 8, up to 3.

The big noteworthy item from this bracket? I expect at least 1 has to finish bottom 4.
All of these sides bar Gold Coast have either played finals or gone close in the past 2 seasons. All bar the Suns would be looking at a crunch year for their coaches if they finish bottom 4.

North, West Coast & Richmond can have a spell. I can see one (most likely the first 2) finishing 15th - but hard to see any great improvement beyond that. A dream injury run year for the Eagles would have them peak 13th I think but I don’t see how they have a “dream injury run” anymore with Optus.

I’ve got Collingwood v GWS grand final tip, injuries permitting, with GWS winning it. Pies I expect to go bang in the off-season, GWS pretty much had a prelim home & hosed twice, and I don’t think the mental damage from embarrassingly losing 2 finals is nearly as bad as embarrassingly losing a grand final (or 2 grand finals). Port 2023-2024, Brisbane 2021-2022, Sydney 2015-2016 just a couple of teams to bounce back and finish higher after some bad straight set exits. GWS lose some depth (Perryman, Cumming, maybe Peatling) but expect the likes of Callaghan, Cadman to be big & they have a bunch of fringe players who were all first rounders begging for a regular game in the 23. They only need 1 or 2 out of 6-7 to be good.