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There's not good evidence for an MCG-based GF home advantage, no. Of course, there's so little data on Grand Finals (only one a year!*), it's hard to conclude anything. But non-Vic teams have done so well in Grand Finals over the last two decades that Squiggle and several other models ignore home ground advantage for them.

Most of this evidence comes from the first decade, though: 1998-2007, when non-Victorian teams regularly beat up on Victorian ones. More recently, Victorian teams have overperformed: the Bulldogs defeating Sydney in 2016 (upset), Hawthorn smashing West Coast in 2015 (bigger win than expected), Hawthorn thumping Sydney in 2014 (upset smashing), and Hawthorn over Fremantle in 2013 (about what was expected, but still, Vic-defeats-non-Vic). The sole recent example of the non-Vic side overperforming is Sydney beating the Hawks in 2012; there weren't any non-Vic sides in Grand Finals from 2008-2011.

So it's all arguable, and you can always think of reasons for exceptions - e.g. the Bulldogs aren't an MCG tenant, so we shouldn't count 2016.

I do agree that "the team that wants it more" often seems to win. But that can't be quantified, of course, and may be circular reasoning... teams that are winning probably always look like they want it more. Especially in Grand Finals! Hard to think of a lazy winner there.

* 1 GF per year except in 2010, when apparently two teams can be exactly matched one week and 10 goals apart the next.