Preview Rd 13 St Kilda v Geelong MCG

[Kildonan]

Grand Final Replay

AFL Premiership Round 13
St Kilda V Geelong

--------- V ---------

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Friday Jun 25
MCG 7:40 PM (Local Time)
Melbourne Forecast Melbourne Radar


Ladder:

Season Win/Loss

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This is a home game for St Kilda and hopefully it will draw a very good crowd bringing in plenty of coffers for our great club.

Geelong are top of the ladder and winning matches seemingly very comfortably having now won 7 in a row, but they are not infallable as attested by their two losses already this year (to Fremantle and Carlton).

The Saints are second on the ladder, having regained their feet after their worst patch of form in over three years. The Saints have won four consecutive matches against the bottom three teams and a depleted Fremantle. Nevertheless winning form is good form.

Together with Hawthorn these two clubs are the in-form teams of the league. Both squads are not at full strength and are hoping for some valued personnel to return for this match.

Injury lists:
*neither club has been very forthcoming with regards to injury information - so estimates only

Joel Corey (knee injury onset Rnd 4) Test
Matthew Scarlett (hamstring strain onset R10 training) Test
Cameron Mooney (ankle sprain onset Rnd 11) Test
Brad Ottens (foot stress fracture onset Rnd 6) Rnd 14
Tom J. Hawkins (foot stress fracture onset Rnd 10) Rnd 16

Zac Dawson (ankle sprain onset Rnd 10) available
Jason Gram (hamstring strain + hip surgery onset Rnd 8) Test
David Armitage (knee MCL onset Rnd 11) Rnd 14
Raphael Clarke (hamstring strain onset Rd 12) Rd ??
Nick Riewoldt (hamstring strain onset Rnd 3) Rnd ??

Whilst Geelong supporters chronically underestimate the Saints, you can be sure the players and coaches out at Kardinia park do not.

Neither club will be willing to expose all they have up their sleeves, so will quite happily go in slightly understrength to broaden the experience of a few players who may be on the fringes of the best 22. This match will provide finals experience to all who play.

The Saints would love to win this match, as we will be understrength in this match no matter who we field. Also this match will be played on the hallowed MCG turf so any experience gained there is great for us. It would give us 4 very valuable points. Most importantly it would send a signal to Geelong and the other challengers puting doubt into their minds. Geelong would love this to be played in the wet, as they have a very good record against us in the wet. They would be keen to maintain their winning ways and blithely carry on as if this was just another game.

What do you think?

 

[Murraj1966]

Please St Kilda, please win this one.

Stanley will be huge I reckon, last time we played Geelong he starred!

 

[Stoddy]

to be honest i'm not that fussed if we actually win this one

i mean i'd be estatic if we did

but i'd be happy if we are competitive and really challange geelong

its only round 13, we've got riewoldt and a few others to come back and obviously dont want to peak too early

if we only beat geelong once this year i'd MUCH prefer it to be on grand final day

 

[ZosoCat]

hopefully be a big win to us but more importantly for the good of the game it should be a high scoring tight match. i think we will win by 30 points.

 

[paul of tuval]

I'm usually an optimist but going on Geelong's form and our form (beating 3 bottom sides not all that convincingly) if we lose by less than 30 I'll satisfied. With Riewoldt and Gram out we are seriously undermanned against such a good team. Even if we get thrashed, IMO it means very little.

 

[Saintland]

Finally on the G after all this time. It isn't our homeground but how many times have Geelong and the Bulldogs been fixtured there already? No fair. Just want us to be at our best and see what happens...

 

[stkildathunda]

I know he's not on the injury list but Pods must be under a cloud wouldnt he? He's got sore groin and did his ankle against Essendon and couldnt walk at half time. Week off may do him good. But if he doesnt play then they wont have a tall forward as Tom "Ken Doll" Hawkins & Cam Mooney are likely to miss, so would Zac come back in at all? Especially if Raph misses through injury it could be interesting to see who plays.

Im pretty confident on snatching a win here by 6 points with Gardiner taking a screamer and knocking Harry Taylor out again 20m out and going back and slotting the goal.

 

[Simon Templar]

The win over Fremantle at Subiaco was a great confidence booster for the Saints. Something that Geelong couldn't achieve earlier in the season.

I love the fact we can win on the road, against good teams & without Riewoldt & others. I would love to beat Geelong at Kadinia Park, that would be the ultimate.

Forget about struggling to beat the lesser lights in the last few games before Freo. Geelong struggled against Westcoast but at crunch time they did what was needed just like the Saints have done in similar games.

I don't see either team holding back but after all we are only playing for four points & bragging rights. That's what last years corrisponding game told us anyway. The real game as we know, only too well, comes in September & this one is only a jostle for position.

I wasn't too confident against Freo but that win makes me think we can match against Geelong, even beat them. I think it will be close & I look forward to a great game.

 

[Jpod31]

Geelong are still the best team, and i reckon they have stretched the gap between st kilda. Geelong have a new weapon in pods, he is prob the best contested mark in the afl, if he is on song he will take many marks inside 50 and he can also set up many goals, he and mooney play the roles of what reiwoldt did. St kilda might have to double or triple team him, but as i say he can leap high, strong mark and doesnt drop the ball, probs would play on gilbert. They say he is also geelongs quickest player on the lead.

geelong by 26-33 pts
if at skilled 60+

 

[ILY Leonard]

based on the last 3 years we shud aim to lose it by a couple of goals so if we meet in the gf the result will be reversed again.

corey, scarlett and mooney are 3 huge ins for them. if mooney does come in dawson will be a certainty for us nd grammy as well if he's fit. out wud be clarke and maybe eddy (didn't see freo game)

i think we can beat them but wud tip the cats by 18 points. ill be happy with any result as long as we get within 20-30 points as that sort of difference cud easily be made up by a fit riewoldt.

 

[Simon Templar]

Geelong are still the best team

,Yeah you're probably right there.

and i reckon they have stretched the gap between st kilda.

Can't agree there. I think it's a far more even competition this year with the exception of Westcoast & Richmond

Geelong have a new weapon in pods,

Fantastic player, great inclusion.

he is prob the best contested mark in the afl

yeah, one of them.

if at skilled 60+

Dream on.

 

[Simon Templar]

based on the last 3 years we should aim to lose it by a couple of goals so if we meet in the GF the result will be reversed again.

Corey, Scarlett and Mooney are 3 huge ins for them. if Mooney does come in Dawson will be a certainty for us and Grammy as well if he's fit. out would be Clarke and maybe Eddy (didn't see Freo game)

i think we can beat them but would tip the cats by 18 points. I'll be happy with any result as long as we get within 20-30 points as that sort of difference could easily be made up by a fit Riewoldt.

I'd be very disappointed if we lost by more than 20 points.

 

[Banked.]

Not too confident about this one. I don't think Ross will reveal all his plans against the Cats as there's a good chance we'll play them sometime in September.

 

[Plugger35]

I don't know why so many people are saying they'd be happy to lose this game. We need to win as many games as we can to cement a top two spot and guarantee a home final. A win over Geelong would go a long way to doing that.

There is no reason why we can't beat Geelong. We might be missing Riewoldt and Gram but they are missing a few important players too at the moment - Corey, Scarlett, Ottens etc. They nearly lost to West Coast a couple of weeks ago so they are beatable.

With two weeks break going into this game we should be nice and fresh and be able to throw the kitchen sink at Geelong. I'm sure our players won't be happy with anything but a win and I won't be either.

 

[ILY Leonard]

I'd be very disappointed if we lost by more than 20 points.

maybe happy wasn't the right word haha. i more meant as long as we arent beaten convincingly.

fore example if theyre all over us all day and then we kick some junk time goals and we lose by 20 ill be much more disappointed than if we take it to them all day and just run out of legs and lose by 30. either way as long as we're in the game for more than 3 quarters, considering were without riewoldt i don't think it's too defeatist to say that a close loss is nothing to get to upset about.

 

[Simon Templar]

I don't know why so many people are saying they'd be happy to lose this game. We need to win as many games as we can to cement a top two spot and guarantee a home final. A win over Geelong would go a long way to doing that.

There is no reason why we can't beat Geelong. We might be missing Riewoldt and Gram but they are missing a few important players too at the moment - Corey, Scarlett, Ottens etc. They nearly lost to West Coast a couple of weeks ago so they are beatable.

With two weeks break going into this game we should be nice and fresh and be able to throw the kitchen sink at Geelong. I'm sure our players won't be happy with anything but a win and I won't be either.

I certainly won't be happy to lose but I think there is a reasonably good chance we won't win. I will be disappointed if we lose but I'm a realist too. If I had to put odds on the game I'd say 45/55% Saints being 45% to win.

I think a lot of people are comparing this year's game with last year & taking it as an omen... lose this one & win the Grand Final... I don't think it works like that.

Most minor premiers don't win the GF though.

 

[mysainters]

I'm actually optimistic, provided...

Kosi gets to rotate through the ruck at times, pretty much matched McEvoy's output for the entire match during his small burst in there on the weekend. It's simple really, let the big guy enjoy his footy, and have a postitive impact the game at the same time.

They don't sacrifice a player to do a full time shut down on Lenny again.

Zac is back in the side, allowing Goddard to play in the midfield pushing forward without having to help out the defence.

Our midfielders, resting ruckmen, and guys pushing up from defence, all continue to contribute to the scoreboard.

 

[Armitage2Riewoldt]

I certainly won't be happy to lose but I think there is a reasonably good chance we won't win. I will be disappointed if we lose but I'm a realist too. If I had to put odds on the game I'd say 45/55% Saints being 45% to win.

I think a lot of people are comparing this year's game with last year & taking it as an omen... lose this one & win the Grand Final... I don't think it works like that.

Most minor premiers don't win the GF though.

We were minor premiers in 1965, 1997 and 2009...

 

[Simon Templar]

We were minor premiers in 1965, 1997 and 2009...

yeah, & we didn't win the flag any of those years

 

[Jpod31]

st kilda defence will struggle to deal with the pods, mooney, stevie j, ablett and chappy

player marks contested marks

Sam Gilbert 104 15
Jason Blake 94 10
Brendon Goddard 81 23
Steven Baker 78 1
Sam Fisher 73 9

430
58 contested
13% of marks contested

pods already has 35 in 9 games
mooney 19
stevie j 10


st kilda rely on extra numbers and hold opponents down while the 3rd man comes in, but if geelong are quick and direct the forwards should eat the saints defence

 

[Look2Me4Guidance]

st kilda defence will struggle to deal with the pods, mooney, stevie j, ablett and chappy

player marks contested marks

Sam Gilbert 104 15
Jason Blake 94 10
Brendon Goddard 81 23
Steven Baker 78 1
Sam Fisher 73 9

430
58 contested
13% of marks contested

pods already has 35 in 9 games
mooney 19
stevie j 10


st kilda rely on extra numbers and hold opponents down while the 3rd man comes in, but if geelong are quick and direct the forwards should eat the saints defence

First of all you're user name relates to Podsiadly but you're a Dogs fan?

Second of all, I'm not sure what your stat is bringing to the table in terms of relevance. Comparing contested marks between forwards and backs is irrelevant. The defence is there to spoil marks and not just take them.

We are extremely difficult to score against. Even for Geelong.

 

[Plugger35]

st kilda defence will struggle to deal with the pods, mooney, stevie j, ablett and chappy

player marks contested marks

Sam Gilbert 104 15
Jason Blake 94 10
Brendon Goddard 81 23
Steven Baker 78 1
Sam Fisher 73 9

430
58 contested
13% of marks contested

pods already has 35 in 9 games
mooney 19
stevie j 10


st kilda rely on extra numbers and hold opponents down while the 3rd man comes in, but if geelong are quick and direct the forwards should eat the saints defence

Hard to take your opinions seriously when you're obviously a troll that has a grudge against St Kilda.

Geelong's forwards struggled to score against us in both games last year so I can't see any reason why they would eat our defence this time. Podsiadly has been impressive but he has been up against some pretty weak defences too. I doubt he will find it as easy against St Kilda.

 

[Saint4Ever]

Should be a ripping game, clearly the two best teams in the comp!
I think it will go down to the wire especially if Kosi can stand up like he did against freo and Milney can continue his steller form.

Goddard is the Key! Absolute superstar, probably the only player in the comp who can dominate any position on the ground

 

[Fehring]

Not too confident about this one. I don't think Ross will reveal all his plans against the Cats as there's a good chance we'll play them sometime One Day in September.

Edited for accuracy.

 

[StFly]

And Pods breakdown in marks is 40-35 which is less than the Bakerdog total, so obviously he should be out matchup so we don't waste a key defender on him right?

If Geelong do choose to move the ball quickly they will need to spot up successive targets, not only thatthey would also need to ensure that the kick isn't translate for players to then leave their man to impact the contest, it's not a case of "well this bloke has contested marks out the wazoo, he must be the second coming of christ!"

Carton zoned a defense and provided numbers behind the ball to congest the 50, Collingwood tend to employ the 3rd man up scenario and weight of number approach in defense, is it coincidence that in these 2 instances are the only times when Geelong have not scored above 100 poitns for the year? I think not.

No doubt their forward line has functioned well with Pods there, however he played in both these instance and has a combined total of 15 marks and 1 goal 6 (0.4 & 1.2) the man has not yet shown that when he comes up against a congested situation that he is capable of impacting games at the level that he has shown (4-5 goals, 5-6 contridutions & assists for further goals) instead his output is way down and the forward line suffers.

St Kilda defense will not "struggle" with the likes of the cats forwards, individually and as a collective group they will break even, the problem will be with the rotations as it always is. Stevie J does not fire, Chappy will, Chappy does not Byrnes will, Byrnes does not Stokes will and so on so forth. This is what killed us and continues to do so (if you look at the games it's rarely the "bug names" that score goals, it's the medium "iffies" that can pop up) that being said, I expect the contest shall be close for a majority of the match, Geelongs run does allow for sides to rebound with gusto, which is where a majority of the better teams get their goals, add to that we both have marking targets up forward, expectation should be a Geelong win, but Pods? Still needs to crack a "worthy" defensive unit, his bags have come against Richmond early on, Sydney at Skilled, Melbourne and Essendon. Hardly awesome defensive units.