Traded Oscar Allen [Joins Brisbane as RFA]

[briztoon]

Why would they get significantly worse when those 4 leave? Have you seen their contribution this season? You think that will offset the improvement from the u23s and then some?

I believe you need to reread the post I replied to, and then my reply. Because I'm pretty sure I wrote WC won't get significantly worse.

 

[JHF1870]

I don't believe WC will get "way worse", but I also believe they haven't hit rock bottom yet. That will come when Yeo, McGovern, JCripps and Kelly retire. Though, Yeo and McGovern aren't really there half the time anyway, and Kelly looks to have checked out already.

Problem is West coast have no high end talent performing, and a very low base

They are so far behind the other clubs it isn't funny

 

[Shueygod]

I believe you need to reread the post I replied to, and then my reply. Because I'm pretty sure I wrote WC won't get significantly worse.

Sorry, why would they hit rock bottom when those players leave? You think the improvement from youth won’t cover their contribution?

 

[Scotland]

I would to think West Coast won't get worse than losing by 122 and 171 in consecutive works.

 

[Shueygod]

Problem is West coast have no high end talent performing, and a very low base

They are so far behind the other clubs it isn't funny

View attachment 2277467

They are playing 13 players 22 or younger, it’s to be expected.

 

[Big_Birdy]

Problem is West coast have no high end talent performing, and a very low base

They are so far behind the other clubs it isn't funny

View attachment 2277467

What is that supposed to represent?

 

[JHF1870]

What is that supposed to represent?

Sorry, I've explained elsewhere. It represents a series of boxplots that show the spread of statistical data for every player who has played this year.

It's my own algorithm which measures impact a player has on the game. Every player then has an average score. The main box in the boxplot (The big box in the middle) represents all scores in the middle 50% of scores. This is where most players in the team are scoring. The top point is usually a very small number of the best players, conversely the bottom is a very small amount of the worst players. single points represent an outlier, or a wild score.

I can't show it because it's a mess, but each team has a median and an IQR. The median is crudely the middle representation of the whole data, the IQR is the median of the box.

Crows have a small box, high median. (Most of their players are impacting on the the game equally)

Still need to investigate further and look at efficiency in scoring from inside 50s, and disposals, which is why Collingwood is doing very well.

West Coast's highest scores are lower than other teams main bulk of scorers. This is concerning.

In terms of Oscar Allen though, I'm not sure whether any outcome helps the club tbh. He really is an important player and his type aren't easy to find.

 

[LongSerong]

What triggers band 1 compensation these days? I know the cap was increased for players recently? (correct me if i'm wrong). Someone here stated that 800K isn't big money anymore in the AFL which I tend to agree with if there's offers of 1M+ going around (even 2M for Harley).

 

[Big_Birdy]

Sorry, I've explained elsewhere. It represents a series of boxplots that show the spread of statistical data for every player who has played this year.

It's my own algorithm which measures impact a player has on the game. Every player then has an average score. The main box in the boxplot (The big box in the middle) represents all scores in the middle 50% of scores. This is where most players in the team are scoring. The top point is usually a very small number of the best players, conversely the bottom is a very small amount of the worst players. single points represent an outlier, or a wild score.

I can't show it because it's a mess, but each team has a median and an IQR. The median is crudely the middle representation of the whole data, the IQR is the median of the box.

Crows have a small box, high median. (Most of their players are impacting on the the game equally)

Still need to investigate further and look at efficiency in scoring from inside 50s, and disposals, which is why Collingwood is doing very well.

West Coast's highest scores are lower than other teams main bulk of scorers. This is concerning.

In terms of Oscar Allen though, I'm not sure whether any outcome helps the club tbh. He really is an important player and his type aren't easy to find.

How do you think Ports would look if they played Gold Coast at home, Bris away, Crows at home and then GWS away, as opposed to Pies away, Tigers at home, Essendon away and then Saints at home.

I think it’s a bit early to use that as any sort of guide when Eagles have had almost certainly the hardest draw in the league (and off the top of my head 2nd wouldn’t be particularly close), while some have gotten 4 non finalists?

 

[JHF1870]

How do you think Ports would look if they played Gold Coast at home, Bris away, Crows at home and then GWS away, as opposed to Pies away, Tigers at home, Essendon away and then Saints at home.

I think it’s a bit early to use that as any sort of guide when Eagles have had almost certainly the hardest draw in the league (and off the top of my head 2nd wouldn’t be particularly close), while some have gotten 4 non finalists?

Agreed, I've also mentioned this in another thread.

1. Crows and GC Will drop, I still think Port will fare well. We are actually playing well statistically but our forward entry is attrocious. If we sort that out, or results might improve. I think our clearance game and inside 50s are good, hitouts to advantage good, intercepts and defensive work is good but converting those stats into scoring is the issue.

Looking at the data with the exception of Sydney and Port it's painting a fair representation to the quality of sides. I'm sure if I investigate further Sydney will have had softish games, or had very efficient transition to scoring.

I guess we will find out by round 9-10 when things even out.

Hopefully you guys get a red hot opportunity this week against the Blues

In terms of Allen, this is the game he needs to step up.

 

[Elixuh]

Sounds like old Don Pyke has really mismanaged this. Needs to repair any relationships which have been damaged. Might be worth organising a camp for the players to galvanise the group.

 

[briztoon]

Sorry, why would they hit rock bottom when those players leave? You think the improvement from youth won’t cover their contribution?

Yes. You are losing most of your experienced players who are supposed to be leaders on the field. Gov and Yeo are still your best two players, when they are fit. And you are not replacing them with senior players of the same quality. (well you might if you can trade in A grade replacements)

Your draftees will still be young players. Look at North and Gold Coast for examples. Just their players. Rowell and Anderson are in their 6th season, and they are just leading their team now. Norths kids are a couple of years younger than GC's, and aren't ready to stand up yet for a full season.

And please don't take this the wrong way, even North and GC had/have better quality second tier experienced players than WC currently does, (though it's close with North) and they both still had draftees coming through from the 2016 to 2021 drafts, which WC are very short on, as has been discussed on your board.

 

[briztoon]

Problem is West coast have no high end talent performing, and a very low base

They are so far behind the other clubs it isn't funny

View attachment 2277467

I agree. But I don't believe they are currently performing much higher than their floor. So it's not a significant gap to bottoming out. Especially on the weekend, when they were missing their best 3 players.

 

[Shueygod]

Yes. You are losing most of your experienced players who are supposed to be leaders on the field. Gov and Yeo are still your best two players, when they are fit. And you are not replacing them with senior players of the same quality. (well you might if you can trade in A grade replacements)

Your draftees will still be young players. Look at North and Gold Coast for examples. Just their players. Rowell and Anderson are in their 6th season, and they are just leading their team now. Norths kids are a couple of years younger than GC's, and aren't ready to stand up yet for a full season.

And please don't take this the wrong way, even North and GC had/have better quality second tier experienced players than WC currently does, (though it's close with North) and they both still had draftees coming through from the 2016 to 2021 drafts, which WC are very short on, as has been discussed on your board.

I don’t see how losing their contributions this season (zero for Yeo, no Gov on the weekend, Kelly dropped) but adding a whole seasons worth of experience to the 13 < 22 kids from the season would cause regression. It’s not even about adding newer draftees to the team, the improvement should come from within the current team.

 

[briztoon]

I don’t see how losing their contributions this season (zero for Yeo, no Gov on the weekend, Kelly dropped) but adding a whole seasons worth of experience to the 13 < 22 kids from the season would cause regression. It’s not even about adding newer draftees to the team, the improvement should come from within the current team.

If/when Yeo and Gov return, that improves your team this year. Yeo's return possibly helps Kelly as well. And that improves your team this year. Once they are gone for good, you've only got Waterman, Baker and Graham. Unless you bring in more quality players.

Adding a year or couple of years experience to your kids, with fewer senior players in the team, just brings you up to the level of North from 2021-2023. But you still don't have an LDU, Simpkin, Zurhaar or Xerri in your team.

My opinion from the neutral seats are that Baker and Graham are not the same quality of player as LDU and Simpkin. They are honest role players, who struggle when they don't have the A grade players around them.

And WC hasn't yet drafted the same number of high end kids that the current North team has on its list.

 

[Shueygod]

If/when Yeo and Gov return, that improves your team this year. Yeo's return possibly helps Kelly as well. And that improves your team this year. Once they are gone for good, you've only got Waterman, Baker and Graham. Unless you bring in more quality players.

Adding a year or couple of years experience to your kids, with fewer senior players in the team, just brings you up to the level of North from 2021-2023. But you still don't have an LDU, Simpkin, Zurhaar or Xerri in your team.

My opinion from the neutral seats are that Baker and Graham are not the same quality of player as LDU and Simpkin. They are honest role players, who struggle when they don't have the A grade players around them.

And WC hasn't yet drafted the same number of high end kids that the current North team has on its list.

North this season would obviously be an improvement on the eagles this year so I dont think it’s a great comparison.

Eagles have more u22 playing prime positions currently than North have ever had at one time. Eagles had 13 players under 22 on the weekend, a lot of those playing major roles.

I don’t see how anyone could not expect significant improvement when over half the team is 22 or younger and a lot of the older guys are very replaceable (Hunt, Cole, B.Williams).

Don’t think anyone would have Baker and Graham of the same ilk as those two, but this isn’t a comparison between eagles and north. It’s between eagles of 2027 and 2025.

 

[briztoon]

North this season would obviously be an improvement on the eagles this year so I dont think it’s a great comparison.

Eagles have more u22 playing prime positions currently than North have ever had at one time. Eagles had 13 players under 22 on the weekend, a lot of those playing major roles.

I don’t see how anyone could not expect significant improvement when over half the team is 22 or younger and a lot of the older guys are very replaceable (Hunt, Cole, B.Williams).

Don’t think anyone would have Baker and Graham of the same ilk as those two, but this isn’t a comparison between eagles and north. It’s between eagles of 2027 and 2025.

Guess we'll wait and see where you're at in 2 years.

Hope we're both around to see it, and one of us remembers this thread.

 

[jenniferHAWKinS]

We were so lucky to miss out on Ratugolea and McKay. Hopefully we are just as lucky to miss out on Allen. We will quickly get over the heartache of Oscar choosing the Lions with the returns of Dear in a month and Lewis around the mid season bye.

 

[Del203211]

Brisbane were a basket case pre Fagan. Gee wizz they are a genuine powerhouse now. He’ll be a great fit if they get him.

 

[briztoon]

Brisbane were a basket case pre Fagan. Gee wizz they are a genuine powerhouse now. He’ll be a great fit if they get him.

Who hasn't been a basket case at one time or another? except Geelong.

 

[freo_leo29]

Just needs to be no bonus clauses in the contract

If Allen is offered 800k a year with clauses for games played or B&F finishes that top him up to a million or whatever then they only count the 800k base contract for Free agency compensation purposes.

This is where it could come undone for WC.


It's becoming clearer that WC are forcing him out, so they'd need to hope that he is being offered guaranteed money and not base + clauses.

 

[THE_GUN]

Just needs to be no bonus clauses in the contract

If Allen is offered 800k a year with clauses for games played or B&F finishes that top him up to a million or whatever then they only count the 800k base contract for Free agency compensation purposes.

This is where it could come undone for WC.


It's becoming clearer that WC are forcing him out, so they'd need to hope that he is being offered guaranteed money and not base + clauses.

You would have to think there will be clauses in his contract with his degenerative knee injury the the eagles fans have mentioned. I mean it would be crazy to pay a player a million dollars and 6 years and only plays limited games a year

 

[freo_leo29]

You would have to think there will be clauses in his contract with his degenerative knee injury the the eagles fans have mentioned. I mean it would be crazy to pay a player a million dollars and 6 years and only plays limited games a year

Thats the issue for WC, if there are clauses then their FA compo gets stuffed, risky to force him out

 

[THE_GUN]

Thats the issue for WC, if there are clauses then their FA compo gets stuffed, risky to force him out

Also the club he selects

If he does actually select Brisbane who are the premiers and well and truly still in their window another 2-4 years
along with the very talented list of young players they have on their lists they wont be wanting to be paying a player like Allen massive cash when its well known his team has low balled him and he wants to be part of a winning team after missing out on the 2018 premiership.

Im thinking the Lions will be at around $750k-$800k x 6 max

 

[bzparkes]

Also the club he selects

If he does actually select Brisbane who are the premiers and well and truly still in their window another 2-4 years
along with the very talented list of young players they have on their lists they wont be wanting to be paying a player like Allen massive cash when its well known his team has low balled him and he wants to be part of a winning team after missing out on the 2018 premiership.

Im thinking the Lions will be at around $750k-$800k x 6 max

So he'd be moving for roughly the same that WCE would be offering him?

Right....