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Most of that stuff is just nice to have, or is actually irrelevant to the AFL like hosting all weather events and concerts

I have zero doubt that Tasmania would sell out an upgraded stadium every week and be a huge success. The roofed stadium would be better, but would have little impact on their success.

It's designed to be a hurdle that's difficult to overcome and it's proving to be that way. Any sensible league would allow Tasmania anyway if the stadium falls through, but I suspect the AFL will pull the plug instead.