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May 5, 2014
1,260
1,721
AFL Club
Gold Coast
P/L -21U (W/L 4-11)

4U - Martinez - $1.95 (TS)
3U - Elkins/ Brown GTD - $1.97 (SB)
2.5U - Yusuff/ Barboza fight starts round 4 - $1.93 (SB)
2U - Pereira/ Petroski O2.5 - $2.25 (SB)
 

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I liked Luque - 1.80 on 365 now btw. Cashout and re-bet it, they allow full cash out usually
If the odds go out on 365 you get the standard penalty applied to your cashout.

If the odds are the same as when you bet it, there is no penalty on your cashout, unlike the other books, though.

I don't really know why he's going out towards a pick em, but it's not usually a good sign.
 
If the odds go out on 365 you get the standard penalty applied to your cashout.

If the odds are the same as when you bet it, there is no penalty on your cashout, unlike the other books, though.

I don't really know why he's going out towards a pick em, but it's not usually a good sign.
Fade the public not always bad

That said I can't see many people even discussing the fight on twitter/sherdog so probably isn't public $ in this case
 
Anything for this card Bucking Bronco ?

I'll probably play Curtis. I don't rate him that highly but Allen isn't deserving of 1.50 when Curtis will land the harder shots

Morono should finish but hard to trust. Hate this card as a viewer too, garbage
2.25U - Peek - $2.67 (SB)

Morono is the only other guy I'm interested in too.

Might parlay him with Talia Santos by decision in the PFL when that comes out.

Personally, I think it's Allen or pass, but you could be on the +EV side there I guess.

Curtis conceded 3 takedowns from 4 attempts to Imavov two fights ago.

In a 5 round fight, if Allen is able to match that kind of success, a finish on the ground could be very likely.

Curtis is also 3 months shy of 37, and older blokes like that are prone to losing their chins all of a sudden, not that I'd expect it to necessarily be a factor here, but you can't expect someone who's been competing for 20 years to just go on forever being able to wear the big shots.

In saying that, Allen is confirmed chinny himself, and Curtis definitely has the power to put him away.
 

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Also, with it being a 5 round fight, fatigue should play a factor, as TDs are a lot easier to get when fatigue sets in.

If Allen doesn't get finished in the first half of the fight, his path to victory should open up more.

But hey, don't let me talk you out of it.

Maybe it will be like Hermansson over Pyfer again which you nailed.
 
Just think Curtis has a better shot than odds suggest. I doubt I bet much as I really have no interest in the fight or the card as a whole...

Allen may well win but I don't think he covers 1.50 - he should be pretty dominant at that price.

I'd still price Curtis as the underdog but 2.70 is pretty big, probably 2.25 for me.
 
Curtis lost a split but sounds like he only lost the 5th because of injury? Value side for sure
Definitely won the final round, but somehow all the stupid judges gave it to Allen.

Looked like he torn his hamstring off the bone with 10 seconds left and started staggering backwards to the fence and Allen started swarming him, making it look like he had rocked him.
 
Shame 300, for such a fun card on paper, isn't particularly great for betting.

I'm on Hill $2.20 & 2.30
Gaethje & O1.5 $2.05
Gaethje & O2.5 at 2.90

I'll probably look at some more of those 365 winner into rounds SGM. Green/Fig could be options there
Weili sub maybe
Turner KO also an option
 
Shame 300, for such a fun card on paper, isn't particularly great for betting.

I'm on Hill $2.20 & 2.30
Gaethje & O1.5 $2.05
Gaethje & O2.5 at 2.90

I'll probably look at some more of those 365 winner into rounds SGM. Green/Fig could be options there
Weili sub maybe
Turner KO also an option
Yeah, not a good card for betting.

Not having any myself.
 
Wish I didn't bother with 300. Shocker

Broken nose at the end of the first changed the fight but Max won that round anyway so likely wins a clear decision without. Hill was just a flat out terrible bet. No way round that

Onto the next
 

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