Game Day Melbourne Demons v Hawthorn: GDT Round 10 - 2/6/2013

Who will win?


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Wonaeamirri33

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THE GAME: MCG, Sunday 2 June, 2013, 3.20pm AEST

HEAD TO HEAD:

Overall: Melbourne 74 wins, Hawthorn 81
Since 2000: Melbourne 5 wins, Hawthorn 15
At MCG: Melbourne 35 wins, Fremantle 40

MEDIA

TV: 7 (live- Vic, NT, SA, Tas, WA), 7mate (live- ACT, NSW, Qld), Fox Footy (live)

RADIO: Victoria- Triple M, 3AW. SA- Triple M, 5AA. Tas- Heart FM. Perth- 6PR.

Ladder position

Melbourne: 17th
Hawthorn: 1st

LAST TIME: Hawthorn 15.25 (115) def Melbourne 6.13 (49), Round 7, 2012, at the MCG.

Bar the first quarter (won by 3 points) and the third quarter (drawn), it was a horror night. Could be described as "mean average"- i.e. "bloody awful".

Demon recruit of the decade Mitch Clark was one of the few highlights when he sent flutters through the hearts of the Hawks' fans early in the evening, kicking three great goals despite starting in the ruck. At one stage, we were almost double that of the opposition so those in the crowd who believed in miracles were becoming enthralled at the possibility of a boilover. Miraculous, because when the Demons led late in the opening term they had half their opponents' possession and trailed in almost every statistical category available except on the scoreboard.

But forty minutes after Clark had booted his third goal when the half time siren sounded, the Hawks had added a further 7.8.50 to the Demons' 0.2.2 (from three shots of which .666 of them were from sitters directly in front). Clark was still Melbourne's sole goalkicker.

There weren't all that many stars in the Melbourne lineup other than Clark. James Magner, Clint Bartram, Nathan Jones and Mark Jamar all putting their hands up, but too many of their teammates seemed indifferent to the task at hand. As usual there was little run and spread and the Hawks beat Melbourne for skill and execution.

For the most part, they basically did as they pleased and too many of our playing group simply failed to produce. Colin Sylvia (6 disposals in 85% of game time), Jamie Bennell (4 - 91%) and Ricky Petterd (5 - 84%) had statistics barely better than the spectators in the stands.

There was one absolutely damning statistic (among many available from this game) and that was scores from stoppages which Hawthorn won 8.8.56 to 0.4.4. That with a ruck division which had 31 hit-outs to 26 on the night but whose hit-outs to advantage were half that of the opposition. Therein lies 95% of the problem. A systemically dysfunctional on-ball division. Still the overwhelming majority of the problem we face today.

GENERAL INFO:

The gulf in talent between these two sides is vast; taking into account who played for Melbourne last weekend and is likely to play this week, only three Demons – Nathan Jones, James Frawley and Jeremy Howe – would be rated as highly as most Hawks.

The only issue ahead of Sunday's clash is what the Hawks want to get out of it. They were scrappy for large parts of their win over Gold Coast last weekend and, according to coach Alastair Clarkson, have a bit to work on.

It is Hawthorn’s last match before the bye, so look for Clarkson to pick his best team and to have a red-hot push for four quarters to enter the break on the best possible note. It shapes as a long afternoon, and how the Demons approach the task and stick with it will have a huge bearing on what happens for the rest of the season. Careers are on the line here.

Selection notes

For the Demons, co-captain Jack Grimes (collar bone) and spearhead Mitch Clark (foot) are still six weeks away, while youngster Jimmy Toumpas (ankle) is close to full fitness but won't play this week. Shannon Byrnes is out with a wrist injury. Jack Fitzpatrick, who kicked five goals in Casey's 13-point VFL win against Geelong, has been called up, along with Cam Pedersen, who had 23 disposals and 10 marks playing in defence.

Dean Kent, James Strauss, Joel Macdonald and David Rodan also come back into the team for this game. With five otherwise left out, including Sellar, Jetta, Nicholson, and, very surprisingly and somewhat weirdly as far as I can see, Max Gawn and James Magner. You'd certainly hope there's some sort of reason to do with injury as to why neither of them have been selected.

On the face of it, those two omissions look very strange to me, and not particularly justifiable - unless there is another reason we don't know about.

Hawthorn regain Grant Birchall (back soreness) and David Hale (ankle) for Sunday's match after both trained strongly during the week, with Jack Gunston out due to a calf injury, and Max Bailey omitted. In other news for the Hawks, midfielder Xavier Ellis made a successful return to football for Box Hill on Saturday. Ellis has been sidelined with a calf injury since the pre-season, with his game for Box Hill his first of 2013.

Players to watch

Melbourne:

Jack Trengove: The Melbourne co-captain was one of the few shining lights for the Demons last weekend. Trengove led from the front, laying six tackles and gathering 20 touches. The young midfielder continues to improve each week after missing much of the pre-season with a foot injury.

Mark Jamar: An All Australian ruckman, Jamar looks far from the form that won him the honours in 2010. In that year, he combined impressive ruck work with the ability to play as an extra midfielder and push forward and kick goals for his side. This year, he is struggling both in the ruck and around the ground. He had just one possession against Fremantle last week and needs to bounce back against Max Bailey this week, though it’s not an easy task as Bailey had one of his best game for the Hawks last Sunday.

Jack Watts: Watts will most likely play across half back again on Sunday and be a key player to get his side out of trouble, and he's proven himself to be very skilled in driving the transition out of defence before now. Hawthorn are one of the best at locking the footy inside their forward half.

Jeremy Howe: He is an excitement machine, but now the Melbourne forward has combined the ability to win the footy and take spectacular marks. He is now a threat in every aspect, given he kicks goals and can gather 20 plus disposals. He has pace and provides opposition's with a match-up headache because of his versatility.

Hawthorn:

Bradley Hill: Hill has stepped into the void left by Cyril Rioli, adding plenty of excitement and dash to the Hawthorn team. Now in his second year, Hill uses his blistering pace to full advantage.

Jonathan Simpkin: Simpkin will be enjoying playing against struggling sides as he continues to gel with his new teammates. He was given the chance to play four quarters against GWS and Gold Coast and has responded with 23 and 33 possessions in those games. Another strong performance on Sunday will make him, hard to overlook against Carlton in Round 13 where he will have the opportunity to show he can have an impact against sides challenging for the eight.

Lance Franklin: His first half last week was something not many have seen from Lance Franklin since he became one of the competition’s best forwards all those years ago. Dropped marks, fumbles and poor skills were part of his game last week and continued in the second half despite a marked improvement in his ability to handle the footy. He finished with five goals and proved the match-winner, but will be looking for a much better outing against Melbourne.

Isaac Smith: He is one of the players at Clarkson’s fingertips with genuine leg speed, but Gold Coast were able to force the speedster into kicking errors by forcing him onto his wrong side. A talented left footer, Smith struggles with his right and the challenge for him is to find ways to catch out opponents and not allow them to dictate his play. If he can establish successful ways against lower ranked sides, then he can take that confidence into the second half of the season as he heads towards finals. A key player for the Hawks.

Key matchups

Chris Dawes v Brian Lake

Dawes has been one of those really putting in and delivering a good performance regularly for the Demons in recent weeks, now that he’s been able to string games together. Lake is also settling into his role at the Hawks after crossing from the Bulldogs.

James Frawley v Lance Franklin

It’s always exciting when a first class forward and defender match-up. Frawley is one of the few defenders in the league who has the size and speed to go with Franklin. But Frawley will need plenty of assistance to stop one of the best in the business.

LAST FIVE MEETINGS:

R7, 2012: Hawthorn 15.25 (115) d Melbourne 6.13 (49) at the MCG
R18, 2011: Hawthorn 20.12 (132) d Melbourne 12.6 (78) at the MCG
R2, 2011: Hawthorn 16.26 (122) d Melbourne 12.5 (77) at the MCG
R20, 2010: Hawthorn 15.9 (99) d Melbourne 12.6 (78) at the MCG
R1, 2010: Hawthorn 17.15 (117) d Melbourne 8.13 (61) at the MCG

BRIEF POINTS

1. Hawthorn has a nine-match winning streak over Melbourne coming into this clash, including four by more than 50 points. The Demons last beat Hawthorn in round eight, 2006, when David Neitz kicked six goals in a 75-point victory.

2. This will be the 156th clash between the sides, with Hawthorn winning 81 games to Melbourne’s 74. At the MCG, there have been 76 previous contests, with the Hawks victorious in 40 of those.

3. Defender Kyle Cheney is a former Melbourne player, while senior coach Alastair Clarkson and assistant coaches Adem Yze and Cameron Bruce also played for the club. Director of coaching Chris Fagan is a former assistant coach and administrator as well.

4. Hawk superstar Lance Franklin has kicked 29 goals in nine games against Melbourne, with a best of six coming in round 1, 2008 at the MCG. Despite his five goals against Gold Coast last weekend, Franklin dropped out of the top 10 in the Official AFL Player Ratings. He now sits in 11th place.

5. Hawthorn averages 118 points per game in 2013 compared to Melbourne 70. Hawthorn averages 57.7 inside 50s in 2013 (equal second); Melbourne average 39 per game, although conversion rates from those inside 50s are amongst the best of any club.

_________________________________________________________________________________

From Chief:

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Quotes from Jordie McKenzie:

“Personally, I used to watch all the footy shows and read all the papers, but now I don’t go near them – that’s the opinion [of the media] of where we’re at,”

“But as a playing group, we’ve been pretty good not to get too sucked in or too frustrated with where everything is at. Of course, there is pressure, when you’re one [win] and eight [losses], and have had some heavy defeats, so we’re just doing everything we can to turn it around.”

“It's important to remain focused on the message within the club, because if you start listening to everyone, you’re going to start wondering who to listen to. We're still coming into the club with a positive mindset and trying to improve each week.”

“It’s the opinions of the people internally that matter. Internally, we give and receive a lot of feedback, so any pressure externally is about how each individual person wants to go about it – as far as taking it on or letting that mountain build,”

“Freo beat us in every facet of the game in the first half, especially contested footy. In the second quarter, we got annihilated in hard ball gets, and then the backs were under an influx of pressure, which is hard to defend,”

“All our key performance indicators, we were down by a long way, so we’re going to be a bit of strife on the scoreboard. But credit to the boys, it could’ve got even uglier, but we had to come out competitively in the third quarter.”

“It’s a large leadership group, so it’s been good to work alongside eight other blokes and see how they go about it off the field. You see their actions on the field, but it’s good to see how positive they are around the club and they’re trying to help everyone improve,”

“It’s a challenging role, but one I’ve really enjoyed. Hopefully, I can continue to develop in that area.”

“I played on a few of Freo's good midfielders and at times, I was able to get off them and get a bit of footy myself and provide a bit offensively, which is something I’m continually working on,”

“From that aspect, there were a few positives, but overall, I think I was part of a midfield that was soundly beaten and played against some opponents who got on top of me. I wasn’t overly happy with my performance, so I’m working hard to get some consistency in my game and do it each week and take it into Hawthorn.”

“Every week is a tough week, the competition is so even, but it’s a big couple of weeks coming up,”

“Hawthorn is coming off a win from Gold Coast, but from watching that game, it showed that if they’re (Gold Coast) putting enough pressure on [Hawthorn], anything’s possible.

“We know we’ve got to be competitive for all four quarters, and if we do that we’ll be right in the contest. We know it’s going to be a tough contest, but we’ve got to keep making inroads and keep improving.”


Quotes from Jack Trengove:

“It’s very frustrating when you’re on the end of those types of losses. It was definitely a tale of two halves and we shot ourselves in the foot in that first half,”

“Freo, credit to them, they’re a very good defensive side and they put us under the pump and we just weren’t up for it unfortunately. We did fight it out in the second half and we won that third quarter, but to be honest, we lost it in the first quarter and it was really, really frustrating.”

“I thought we got off to a great start, with Wattsy (Jack Watts) kicking that first goal. Then Freo put us under the pump and we just weren’t up for that challenge … which was really annoying, because we knew that was going to be the case going into that game,”

“The first half was nothing more than frustrating. We weren’t able to play the way that we wanted to and we were reactive to what they (Fremantle) were doing and then they piled on the goals and we were unable to do anything about it, which was really annoying.

“You never like going into half-time that far down, but … [you’ve just got to] put it all behind you and come out with a fresh start. There’s no point dwelling on it, because that’s going to get you nowhere.

“We really just tried to put that aside and start again and unfortunately the damage was done at that point in time. we fought back to an extent, but it was unacceptable.”

“No one wants to be in this position at the moment, towards the bottom of the ladder and not performing consistently well. The only thing we can do is control the controllables and keep working hard and persisting out on the track. That’s the same way I’m taking it,”

“You have your 24-hour rule after a performance like that [against Fremantle], then you’ve got to forget about it, because that’s the modern day football – just move onto the next week as best as possible and remain upbeat and positive around the group.

“There is no point going in with your tail between your legs, because that’s just going to set the wrong tone for the rest of the boys, so I’ve just got to make sure that I remain really positive and keep moving towards success in the future.”

“It’s hard to rate yourself individually after that team performance, because in the end, that’s what you’re judged on,”

“It was good that I could get my hand on the ball a few times and hit the scoreboard, but at the end of the day, we lost by 90 points and it was really disappointing from us. We have to keep persisting and keep working hard, because that’s the only way we’re going to get out of it.”


Quotes from Mark Neeld:

“People have their own views … you know that that comes with the territory. It’s not about me. We know what our roles are – we being the coaches.

“The job of being of an AFL coach – or at least, I know what it’s like to coach Melbourne … if I had the moments that everybody thinks I have during the day to read every newspaper article and [listen to every] podcast and everything that’s said on the radio … you just don’t have the time.”

“We know that we don’t have anything to put our hand up with, with results at the moment … it’s not as major an issue within the footy club. We’re really realistic with where we want to get to and how we want to get there. We also know [that] it is what it is,”

“We’re not sitting around having a look at our player list going ‘we’ve got to cull this many players’ – [because] this is the group that will take the football club through.

“We’re not going to put our hand up for anything in the first half [against Fremantle], but we felt in the second half that there were things there … and the players are aware of that.”

“My role at the football club is to coach the football side – to coach a developing football side, I’ve got a year and a half of a contract to go, which is the first stage of redeveloping the footy club, and I intend to uphold my end of the bargain. My job is to coach a footy team and a club, and I can’t control those external noises.”

“Jesse Hogan, who can’t play yet, kicked five goals and we’ve got another young player, who has missed a lot through illness and injury in Jack Fitzpatrick, and he’s had a really good month. He’s going to put his name up for senior selection this week,”

“We’ve got guys like Dean Kent who went back into the VFL and played particularly well, and we know that we’ve got guys like [Jimmy] Toumpas and [Jack] Viney on our injury list, along with Mitch [Clark], and when they all come together and come through, there’s certainly the makings of a really strong competitive outfit.

“We’re privy to the changes, in terms of the player application from Monday to Friday that other people don’t see, but we are bringing a developing side together in one go and that’s the role.”

“Hawthorn are certainly a well respected outfit, and have got some very experienced players - the opportunity for our boys to go out against them for two hours is the best development that we can get.”

“The loss of communications against Freo changes what you’re doing, but it has no impact on the outcome of the game. In terms of utilising every available minute, when we are coaching a developing side, you need every available minute to make them better. We just lost a little bit of that because it’s very difficult to see down there,” he said.

“It created, again, some challenges that happen from time to time in the AFL. The positive would be that our IT boys had to perform some miracles under extreme pressure and one day they might have to do that as the side moves up the ladder, so it’s probably good practice for them. It’s not an ideal situation, but again you’ve just got to be flexible and roll with it.”


Quotes from James Frawley:

“The game was already lost, but we just had to come out and start again. The boys were a lot better in the second half, but I couldn’t tell you why to be honest. I think the boys were just sick of being pushed around and losing.

“We played a normal structure and we were actually not too bad after half-time, and we ended up winning the third quarter.”

“It hasn’t been a great year so far, we’ve only won one game and it’s pretty shattering to be honest. To come out and play footy, you want to enjoy it and you want to have fun with your mates out there, but when you’re 40 points down at quarter-time, it’s hard to. It’s not much fun at all.”

“Ever since I’ve been here, we haven’t had a winning culture, but we’re trying to change that now. It’s not working for us at the moment, but hopefully soon enough it’ll change and turn around for us. That’s all we can try and do.”


Quotes from Dave Misson:

“Grimesy’s started running and he’s probably four or five sessions into his running program, so he’s going really well,”

“From a running point of view, he’s going to be ready to go, but we need to wait six weeks until he’s allowed contact on his shoulder, so that’s another three weeks away. He’s going to be well prepared when he comes back, but we need to pay respect to the surgery that he had.

“Mitch is also going well and hasn’t started running yet, but he’s doing some good off legs training and would look to run either the end of this week or next week.”

“Jack (Viney) is still in a boot and will come out of the boot this week. He’s probably two to three [weeks] away, maybe an extra one, but we’re not going to be over cautious. We’re not going to be pushing Jack back too quickly, because it was a bone stress injury.”

“Toump was touch and go to play last week actually. He rehabbed really well and he was really professional in his approach to rehab and he’s done some good running sessions early in the week.”

“Tom (McDonald) has been training really well and essentially he’s unrestricted now, from a shoulder point of view.”

“Sam (Blease) copped a knock during the game and he didn’t finish the game, but he’s done some concussion tests this week, which have been all clear.”
 

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SUMMARY:

The season began with some promise for the Melbourne Football Club. But, with poor performances mixed with injuries and off-field issues, it's been a nightmarish year so far.

The coaching staff, players, board and supporters are searching for signs of improvement from week to week.

After a poor start against Fremantle last week, blown out of the water thanks to a 13 goal to two first half from the Dockers, the Demons were able to crawl out from under an insurmountable rock to win the third term.

It was a marked improvement on the first half effort as Melbourne restricted Fremantle to just two goals for the quarter and kicked three themselves before being beaten by 90 points in Perth.

The week before was a much better performance from Mark Neeld’s side across four quarters, challenging Richmond and looking as though they could pull off an upset and defeat a side challenging for a finals spot.

The Demons trailed by just five points at half-time and were well and truly in the game at the final break before the Tigers kicked away in the final term to win by 34 points.

Melbourne brought the intensity and endeavour required for four quarters and the ball use was much better, spotting up targets inside 50 and moving the ball well in transition.

Neeld will be looking for a similar display of intent from his side today in front of a home crowd at the ‘G.

The Hawks are sitting pretty atop the AFL ladder, but that doesn’t make them exempt from concentration lapses despite their undeniable reputation as one of the league’s best sides. Many expected Hawthorn to easily account for GC$ last weekend, after all, it was a side who played off in last year’s Grand Final versus a side in just their third year in the AFL.

But the game was not what everyone expected, as the Hawks were sluggish and Alastair Clarkson was rightly frustrated with his side’s lack of intensity and endeavour in the first half.

The stars aligned in the second half, however, as Hawthorn flexed its muscles and booted 11 second half goals to five to run out 26 point winners.

It was an “out of the blue” performance, given the Hawks have had an outstanding start to the 2013 season and are now in a great position as it begins preparations for the second half of the season.

Of the nine matches to date, the Hawks have played five of the teams currently sitting inside the top eight, and have won four of those five games (losing only to Geelong in Round 1). They have also played each of last year’s top eight sides, and its return from that draw – six wins from seven games.

Hawthorn are in a favourable position and are a formidable opponent for any side, let alone one struggling for form and under pressure to perform from both a coaching and playing perspective.

This is as close to mission impossible as it gets.

We are Hawthorn's whipping boys, they own us and have done for some time. We talk about '87, the '88 through the early 90's and especially over the past 9 years. In 2004 they only won four games, but still beat us in, round 1, 2005, Hawthorn only won 5 matches, they beat us, 2006, one year we smashed them and that's the last time we've done that.

The loss in round 1, 2008 was bonecrushing. They destroyed us and basically have done so every game since. In 2011 we had them at half-time to be absolutely smashed in the third quarter. This week... I don't have any expectations at all particularly.

Unless our team can show fight from the outset, this could get very ugly indeed. We need to get stuck in from the opening whistle in the first quarter, and if we do, we can gain the necessary confidence to match it the rest of the way.

Brereton spoke this week about the Hawthorn/Essendon game in 2006 - I think it was - frustration was apparent amongst the playing group at the Hawks, and it was clear Hawthorn had become Essendon's bunnies. They still got beaten that game, but gave a serious fight, and won the next - they haven't lost to Essendon since. It was the turning point for that young inexperienced group, and it could be again for us in this matchup.

Amidst the gloom of the season to date, the form of Nathan Jones has been the shining light. Jonesy, a leader and one of the few experienced players on the list, has led from the front this season and will no doubt be leading the best and fairest at this point.

The midfielder is as hard at the footy as they come and has improved his skills on the outside. He is averaging 22 disposals and three tackles per game. He is also ranked number one at the club for contested possessions, clearances and centre clearances (also ranked seventh in the competition in this area). A bigger contribution from the likes of Jack Trengove and David Rodan is badly needed though.

Jeremy Howe has also provided supporters with something to smile about, now combining the ability to win lots of the ball and kick goals joining his freakish aerial talents.

He had his best game for the club last weekend against Fremantle, gathering 27 disposals, taking 11 marks and kicking two goals.

He is a unique player and it will be difficult for Clarkson to find a match-up for him, but expect to see Josh Gibson shadowing Howe for most of the game.

ANALYSIS:

Fremantle set out to teach Melbourne a lesson in their clash at Patersons Stadium and the Dockers well and truly did this from the first minutes of the game.

It started when the usually reliable Michael Barlow turned the ball over coming out of defence, resulting in a good goal for Jack Watts. From that brief but painful beginning for the home team, the Demons took the lead from their hosts and stumbled, fumbled and turned over the football to their opposition gifting away goal after goal to give them leads of 40 and 71 points respectively at each of the first two breaks.

Surprisingly, Melbourne won the premiership quarter and narrowed the deficit by a few points in the third before the inevitable fall off at the end which resulted in a thumping defeat that filled the heart of the faithful with enough pain and provided the club with a further dose of humiliation. It was a result which almost certainly will hasten the end of the coach's career.

One senses that the silence coming from both the Board and the newly appointed and temporary CEO points to the fact that the end will inevitably come shortly and all that remains to make it complete is the bean counting on the final settlement and the finalisation of the name of the fill-in coach.

That will be a sad day for the club because Mark Neeld has had the unenviable task of changing what for lack of a better description can be termed "the club's poor culture".

Jack Trengove continues to impress, as a young man who has been given a job that would be difficult on many other older and more experienced shoulders. He has carried himself well both off the field and now on the field through last week's game, and he must become one of the club's spearheads for its ultimate revival. Jeremy Howe's work was great, especially given that he looked gone going for the obligatory weekly mark of the year after suffering a tunneling attack from a Docker opponent. The two Jones boys worked hard but for most of the rest, it's the failure to work hard that again brought the team undone.

PREDICTION:

I really don't want to make one today. We're all basically thinking the same thing.

 
I've got nobody to go with. I'd go it alone again, but I might just nurse my hangover and do some work.

This, all my Melbourne supporting mates have footy/coaching/work on sundays - plus I've got a dinner for my gf's 21st at 6.

I've gone alone 3 or 4 times this season though, now that Melbourne are shit my neutral mates are less and less likely to come with me :(
 
Melbourne by 1.... million

You're low-balling it mate. Far too generous. The reason I omitted any prediction in my writeup was because it was just so blindingly obvious to all of us, of course.

We know what's going to happen.

Melbourne to win by...

v38aA5.gif
 

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Tapscott as sub is a strange call, not least for my UF team. Surely you go with Bail, the man cannot football.


Tipping Bail to have 20 possies and kick 3 goals.

;)
 
It feels like watching this game is like knowing the family dog is gonna be shot out back , but still going to watch it happen even tho it's not gonna be pleasant

grim
 
Oh ****. Game day is here. Time to crack open a tinnie! (we either celebrate with cheers, or we mask the depression. But either way, the booze is there to be had!) xD

LET'S ROLL. GO THE DEES!!!!! :thumbsu:
 
Buddy franklin to self implode in the first and subsequently take out roughead and hodge leaving the hawks with 1 player on the bench and the dees to get up by a goal... Rodan to kick all our goals
 
Who are the 3 people so far who've voted for Melbourne? Love the belief

+ 1 for me, although i think when i went to click cast your vote i think it accidently hit down the well... Stoopid phones and fat fingers
 
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