Prediction Ladder predictor

[Super Hans]

Thought it would be interesting for everyone to give the AFL websites ladder predictor a go given it's the half way mark.

http://www.afl.com.au/ladder/ladder-predictor

Here's my final ladder*:

*didn't do margins, so % is as it stands now.

And here's what I had for our games.

Port Adelaide(A) - Win
Geelong(H) - Win
Sydney(A) - Loss
Richmond(H) - Win
Gold Coast(H/Cains) - Win
St Kilda(H) - Win
Geelong(A) - Loss
North Melbourne(H) - Loss
Collingwood(H) - Win
Essendon(A) - Win
Fremantle(A) - Win

There's one game that stands out like dogs balls for me, the one at Etihad vs Norf. We win that (and get atleast one win vs Geelong) and we should be good for top four.

 

[BallaratBulldog]

I agree as long as the results of last year losing to Dee's and Saints have been learnt. We need to stop floating along, but the west Coast game seemed to have kicked started better play.

 

[JTCWBFC]

Just ran an updated ladder prediction, this doesn't account for upsets or margins.

Assumed:

1) If the match is a current Top 8 Team v a current Bottom 8 Team, the Top 8 Team Wins
2) If the match is a current Top 8 Team v another current Top 8 Team, the Home Team Wins.

Will update after the weekend.

If we drew Geelong week 1 of finals would we have to play at SS? If so this shits me given we couldn't play at Etihad last year.

 

[TimlinOfficial]

North finishing 8th with 15 wins, very possible and very bonkers

This shows how vital the weekend's win was to our top four chances. I don't think Geelong would play another Victorian team in a final at SS.

 

[Bont2Bruce]

Most (6 out of 10) of the Hun sports writers this morning predicted that we'd finish with 68 points.
i.e. we will win 7 out of 8 (all except the Geelong game) from our remaining matches.

The other 4 think we lose to North and finish on 64 points.

 

[fred cook]

If we drew Geelong week 1 of finals would we have to play at SS? If so this shits me given we couldn't play at Etihad last year.

That wont happen the only reason they played Freo there a few years ago was the fact that Freo would only have maybe 3 K of fans turn up for the game

We will have 30 K turn up for the game

 

[Bont2Bruce]

The most wins in a 22-round season we have ever had is 16 (1985, 1992).

 

[MJ_Dogs]

That wont happen the only reason they played Freo there a few years ago was the fact that Freo would only have maybe 3 K of fans turn up for the game

We will have 30 K turn up for the game

Yeah Geelong will only play at home if it's against GWS. Otherwise it'll be the G. I'd say it'll be the same with us and Etihad

 

[MJ_Dogs]

The most wins in a 22-round season we have ever had is 16 (1985, 1992).

16 wins should be our absolute minimum from here. Can't be dropping games against the bottom 10 sides. We need 17 wins to get top 4

 

[TempletonTheRat]

it is possible that after Rd 19 the top 8 teams are all on the same points

would need a couple of upsets for it to happen.

 

[Gollo]

It's optimistic towards the Dogs, relying on us beating Fremantle away and Norf at Etihad. From the H&A season I've got Hawthorn losing to WC away, Sydney beating Norf in Hobart, Norf beating GWS at Etihad, WC beating Collingwood in Melb, and Port beating GWS in Adelaide which could all go either way.

 

[yebiga]

The odds are very high a number of top 8 teams will drop surprise games to teams outside the 8.
Teams likely to cause an upset particularly on their home turf:
Port, st kilda, melbourne, collingwood, Gold Coast, Richmond, and even Freo

 

[VogonProsthetnic]

So if we beat the Cats at SS we could finish top. What a great effort that would be given our injuries. Our last 3 games are Collingwood,mEssendon and Freo- surely there is scope to get our % up if we need to.

 

[go you pups]

Not confident of the next 3 weeks to be honest

We've been good against bottom 10 teams, but with Adams going down are we able to stop all of these 3 sides we come up against big guys?

Key forwards are strengths of Richmond, Gold Coast and St Kilda and imo if we have a down one against any of them their key forwards could be the difference with Richmond and St Kilda showing they can beat decent teams on their day.

Can't get complacent, we just need to take it one week at a time

 

[LondonBulldog]

The problem with all these predictor things is they don't allow for the unexpected.

Look at Geelong's losses this year. Anyone in the top 8 can finish top 4 and anyone can finish bottom 4.

 

[Kony Abbott]

Thought it would be interesting for everyone to give the AFL websites ladder predictor a go given it's the half way mark.

http://www.afl.com.au/ladder/ladder-predictor

Here's my final ladder*:

*didn't do margins, so % is as it stands now.

And here's what I had for our games.

Port Adelaide(A) - Win
Geelong(H) - Win
Sydney(A) - Loss
Richmond(H) - Win
Gold Coast(H/Cains) - Win
St Kilda(H) - Win
Geelong(A) - Loss
North Melbourne(H) - Loss
Collingwood(H) - Win
Essendon(A) - Win
Fremantle(A) - Win

There's one game that stands out like dogs balls for me, the one at Etihad vs Norf. We win that (and get atleast one win vs Geelong) and we should be good for top four.

I think you're underestimating Adelaide a fair bit there mate

 

[Kony Abbott]

I did the ladder predictor today and had us finishing 5th on percentage (Adelaide 4th) I went back and changed our game against Geelong to a win and what do you know - first.

It's insane how close the top 8 is this year. Blowing lesser teams away is going to become pivotal.

 

[The Inbetweener]

Yeah Geelong will only play at home if it's against GWS. Otherwise it'll be the G. I'd say it'll be the same with us and Etihad

Geelong only played Freo at home that final as the G was unavailable.

Both us and the Cats will play finals at the G no matter who we play.

It's not right as they deserve to play finals at home but the precidence was set last year when we weren't allowed to play our final at Etihad

 

[TempleKelvington]

So 15 wins is needed for top 8? Not sure that's ever been the case. Usually 12 or 13 is the mark.

 

[Bulldog Brent]

So 15 wins is needed for top 8? Not sure that's ever been the case. Usually 12 or 13 is the mark.

12 or 13 will be enough - given Port will probably finish on 11 or 12 wins. It's just that the top 8 will win more matches than usual hence 8th will finish on 15 wins, even though 12 or 13 wins will be enough. A weird, but fascinating and exciting, season!

 

[hydestreetband]

12 or 13 will be enough - given Port will probably finish on 11 or 12 wins. It's just that the top 8 will win more matches than usual hence 8th will finish on 15 wins, even though 12 or 13 wins will be enough. A weird, but fascinating and exciting, season!

Would love us to finish top 4 but as long as we do not finish 7th or 8th we will be guaranteed at least one final in Melbourne. I think the best we can finish is 4th (too much percentage to make up on some of the others) and ideally a game against the cats at the mcg. It is about time we burst the cats hoodoo and on the mcg, I think we can beat them. St Kilda and Carlton showed how you can exploit their old and slow defence and if we have everyone on the park for the game, we can do the same. The game at SS in a few weeks will not give an indication of our ability to beat them because the narrow ground makes it easy to defend and suits them. I think we beat Norf but the game I am most worried about is the Suns who are getting all their players back and have the type of team who can exploit some of our weaknesses. I hope that we do not regret having the game moved to Cairns as clearly we beat them at Etihad!!

 

[_Mike_]

FWIW, that's tipping a few upsets and us to beat Geelong at SS

 

[GreatSouthWest]

At least tell us who wins the GF Mike__

 

[Bont2Bruce]

FWIW, that's tipping a few upsets and us to beat Geelong at SS

View attachment 264083

View attachment 264084

Why the hell would we draw with Essendon?

 

[_Mike_]

Why the hell would we draw with Essendon?

mistake..