Opinion Knightsight v Hinesight v Hindsight 2015

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Sep 22, 2010
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AFL Club
Collingwood
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Chicago Bulls
Will this be the year I outperform our superstar recruiting team including Derek Hine, Matt Rendell and Dom Milesi and company?

Hinesight (Collingwood selections):
32: Brayden Sier: Tall, strong bodied midfielder. Have not sighted and this is very early for a midfielder who only managed 16 and 14 disposals from only the two games in the TAC Cup. But the club clearly are sold on his upside and likely see him as something like a Patrick Cripps equivalent as a selection that makes very clear that we want more height/size through the midfield.

58: Tom Phillips: Excellent selection. Phillips can play midfield (outside/inside), can push forward and offer scoreboard impact and can also go back and look comfortable. Production excellent, and has the class, footskills, movement and sidestep to be a have long term best 22 chances. It's not out of the question that Phillips could be another Tom Langdon (not necessarily a general defender but more from the perspective of being another late draft overage value pick others have completely missed).

63: Rupert Wills: Another tall midfielder and it's clear we want to continue adding height to our midfield group. I'm just not seeing the point. Unimpressive at VFL level (for Collingwood) in those games he played (others may have a different view here and are welcome to weigh in), but I didn't feel his impact and as a 22 year old I'm expecting a best 22 player but what I'm seeing is more just depth/ VFL midfielder. I can't imagine demand would have been high so I'm personally puzzled as to why we even needed to pick him in the national draft.

65: Ben Crocker: Crocker is a strong marking medium sizer. He has the versatility to play through the midfield or at either end but this year played his best footy as a medium marking forward. He has some class, ball use at times good, at other times inconsistent. He isn't a star, but he has generally in the even Oakleigh side been looked at as their number one forward and star player/fan favourite which is more an indication of how even that team is - where Phillips also played his footy again this year.

RD.
7. Lachlan Keeffe
25. Josh Smith
42. Josh Thomas
55. Tim Golds

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Knightsight: My preferred players at each selection based on my pre-draft rankings at per my draft almanac: http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/knightmares-2015-draft-almanac.1091303/
32: Mitch Hibberd
There were some really nice options still available in Mitch Hibberd, Tom Cole, Harley Balic, Rhys Mathieson and Riley Bonner but Hibberd of these was my preference as my 10th rated player in this draft. Hibberd is a tallish outside type who has had his injury issues but has improved rapidly this year and has some real ability to do damage with his long damaging kick, some outside running ability, strong overhead marking ability, able to win the contested footy, has strong numbers but then versatility to his game. He is something like a poor man's Brendon Goddard and an ideal list fit as a wing/back flanker who could plausibly even play forward flank or on the ball in the future.

58: Tom Phillips
Phillips as above was my highest rated available talent and I'm very excited to see the club agree with my evaluation. With his production, improvement and how well rounded his game is. He may become someone.

63: Nicholas Coughlan
Nicholas Coughlan makes it three overagers from three selections. Coughlan this year has made the switch from key forward into key defender and has come a long way. He has a good balance between being able to beat his direct opponent and take intercept marks and rebound. Also importantly he has not only performed well through the TAC Cup this season but has also stood up at VFL level and looked the part.

65: Michael Hartley
Hartley is a second key defender after Coughlan but Hartley has had an excellent season at VFL level as a still very good stopper but now also is more of a balanced player now with some intercept marking ability now a new part to his game, and finally better health these past two seasons and consistently good on field performance.

66. Sam Menegola
Menegola as a mature age midfielder is a tall, big bodied midfielder with excellent endurance and the ability to push forward and offer scoreboard impact. He has improved significantly this past season and his all-round game is much better than when he was on Hawthorn and Fremantle's rookie lists as an advanced and AFL ready midfielder now.

Of those on my draft board I would be willing to rookie: Daniel Capiron, Nick Dodge, Ben Crocker, Josh Wagner, Chris Jansen, Kaine Stevens, Jesse Glass-McCasker Tom Keough, Nash Holmes, Clint Hinchliffe and Jadyn Brind. And of those Capiron is not expected to get selected at all given he was not invited to the state or national combines and Dodge is only a fair rookie chance so I would look to manipulate that order somewhat to ensure I get the best combination of players possible.

Rookie draft:
7. Nick Dodge
25. Daniel Capiron
42. Chris Jansen
55. Kaine Stevens

*Didn't think Keeffe/Thomas should return given two years of being inactive to due drug ban.

*Trade note. Of the trades made. The James Aish trade was one I was opposed to and would not have allowed pick 26 (31 after bidding) and St Kilda's second round pick for 2016 to have moved as part of the trade. Had the trade not been made I would have taken Mitch Hibberd at 31 (allowing me to take Ryan Clarke at 32) and with 33 in 2016 it would have allowed me to take Willem Drew at 30 still and with 33 if a bid on Brad Scheer would be matched Dylan Clarke would have been my choice.

Hindsight:
32: Sam Collins

58: Anthony McDonald Tipungwuti

One I felt for a few years now should have been drafted. Finally did and has been incredible.

63: Sam Menegola
Menegola as a mature age midfielder is a tall, big bodied midfielder with excellent endurance and the ability to push forward and offer scoreboard impact. He has improved significantly this past season and his all-round game is much better than when he was on Hawthorn and Fremantle's rookie lists as an advanced and AFL ready midfielder now.

65: Tom Papley

66. Dan Houston

Rookie draft:

7. Luke Ryan (2016 draft)
25. Tim Kelly (2017 draft)
42. Liam Ryan (2017 draft)
55. Brody Mihocek (2017 rookie draft)


*I would have Tom Stewart in under hindsight except I can't imagine he would have nominated for the draft in 2015 given he only just was about to make the move into the VFL from local football.
Blake Hardwick at 32 is an obvious alternative choice if you're not trilled about Collins needed to be delisted and then redrafted to become a good player.

*Summary - We both got Phillips. Sier remains heading into the 2021 season a wait and see but picking Menegola I'll give myself the points for 2015.





2014 edition:
http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/knightsight-v-hinesight-v-hindsight.1082834/

2013 edition:
http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/hinesight-knightsight-and-hindsight-end-of-2013.1041937/
 
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Just looked at the 2014 one again. Remembered the hype around Laverde and saw him as your preferred pick 5 over De Goey (as well as probably half this board). It reminds me why Hine is a top 3 drafter in the AFL... We are so lucky to have him.

Completely agree. Hine and Rendell particularly are special and top three in the game standard recruiters. And in an 18 man competition, having two of the best three in any area of the game is really something. And that's why I challenge myself to pick v Collingwood rather than say Carlton or GWS who more years than not I can out-pick and continue to out-pick if you go through my power rankings of each year. I love nothing more than that challenge.

If I'm to re-do last years draft I'd be taking De Goey at number one overall (closely followed by Heeney). De Goey's contested ball winning ability is on another level and I'm looking at him as a potential brownlow medalist down the line because he has that dominance of contested ball winning and stoppage work, but then also has the class, footskills and possible marking ability and scoreboard impact that can develop with it given they were areas of competency of De Goey as a junior.

De Goey's production through 2013 in the TAC Cup was only average for a midfielder/forward as he was with (15.1 disposals, 6.9 contested possessions, 2.3 clearances and 2.8 tackles per game just isn't that exciting), but he was playing mostly forward (14 goals from 9 games) which disguised his numbers somewhat.

My key learning is that I should have placed more stock into De Goey's midfield numbers through the u18 championships when he played most of his footy through there and dominance of his contested ball winning and stoppage game at that level (averaging 9 contested and only 5.6 uncontested per game). And with contested ball winning that one area of the game that translates most strongly to AFL level that kind of thing is something I'm increasingly looking for more.

And that dominance of contested ball winning and stoppage ability theory is exactly why I have Hopper at number one and Oliver at number two with Hopper gifted like no other in this draft at stoppages and with the contested side of the game, and Oliver with his contested ball winning but then like De Goey attributes that go with it with good movement and some explosion but then the skills and some signs of potential to offer scoreboard impact with a 6 goal game late season and strong improvement over the course of the season.
 

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Hey NM. What Indigenous players were available around our selections and do you think we should have taken one?

Yestin Eades is the indigenous player we could have selected. And he would have been a suitable alternative to Wills and in my view arguably the best pure linebreaker in this draft. Just his production is only mild, endurance while better this season can continue to improve and by foot he can at times struggle. So that's what you weight up. But can really break the lines and have a high impact per disposal and plausibly offer some scoreboard impact. Some may remember him stepping up to VFL level and kicking a couple of goals v Collingwood VFL.

Davin Ferreira as a small forward in the rookie draft is someone else we could plausibly look into selecting. Though I favour Tasmanian Nick Dodge on performance and completeness of talent.
 
Yestin Eades is the indigenous player we could have selected. And he would have been a suitable alternative to Wills and in my view arguably the best pure linebreaker in this draft. Just his production is only mild, endurance while better this season can continue to improve and by foot he can at times struggle. So that's what you weight up. But can really break the lines and have a high impact per disposal and plausibly offer some scoreboard impact.

Davin Ferreira as a small forward in the rookie draft is someone else we could plausibly look into selecting. Though I favour Tasmanian Nick Dodge on performance and completeness of talent.

Thanks NM.
 
And that dominance of contested ball winning and stoppage ability theory is exactly why I have Hopper at number one and Oliver at number two with Hopper gifted like no other in this draft at stoppages and with the contested side of the game, and Oliver with his contested ball winning but then like De Goey attributes that go with it with good movement and some explosion but then the skills and some signs of potential to offer scoreboard impact with a 6 goal game late season and strong improvement over the course of the season.

Loving your work as always KM - you're the best thing on Bigfooty! But!....your grammar teacher should be shot! ;) (That sentence there is like doing two balks then three blind turns then kicking the ball 50m the wrong way before tripping over your own foot!)
 
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So why did we pick Wills? He sounds like a wasted pick. What on earth do our recruiters see in him?
 

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I remember everyone saying Laverde was the pick that we should go with.

De Goey seems a lot better selection.

At five I lacked excitement for anyone last year. I really wanted Reece McKenzie and Connor Blakely as many will probably remember, but with the rumours suggesting both would be available later it left pick five somewhat open. With McKenzie reserved for a later pick along with Moore coming to the club then Grundy, Witts and Cox as ruckmen I didn't see a need for Peter Wright which in some ways by default left Jayden Laverde as my pick at 5. Laverde has shown some promise for Essendon, but De Goey has his measure.

So why did we pick Wills? He sounds like a wasted pick. What on earth do our recruiters see in him?

I'm interesting to hear Derek's rationale assuming the club website get Derek to talk about each selection. As per my comments above, I'm scratching my head at the selection. I don't get why we wanted him firstly and secondly why we needed to spend a national draft selection to get him. He wasn't invited to the state screenings which suggests that other clubs had an interest. Given this, I can't work it out.
 
Question Knightmare . If you were selecting for us last night and the draft unfolded the same way, who would your selections have been?

Based on your rankings, I'd imagine that Balic wouldn't have falled further than our first?
 
Hey NM,

I've mentioned in the past how Hine seems to shop in 'themes'. One year he seems to load us up on defenders. Seems like this year we are loaded up on midfielders.

Perhaps he might be considering players not just on their ability to be best 22, but also on their competitive juices and ability to push their team-mates to be better. It's a 'holistic' thing (Hine did actually use that word at the members forum)
 
Like you Knightmare, I got very excited when our pick came along because there was still Bonner and Hibberd available.

They were clearly our best list fits as we lack so badly for ball carriers with good footskills.

But it's very hard to be critical of the selection of Sier as I simply don't know anything about him. I thought to myself for a moment that if we wanted a big bodied midfielder, then Mathieson was still also available...however the more I am reading on Sier it is obvious he has much more speed and ability to spread and his footskills look solid.

I'm also reading that a number of teams had tested him, so Hine must have been of the opinion that he wouldn't last until the next selection.

It doesn't strike me as a real 'needs' selection because we have De Goey and Crisp who are big bodied mids. But clearly 190cm mids are the future of the game and I've got no problem stocking up....especially because this guy seemingly has great pace and endurance.

It's a huge investment by Hine & co because Hibberd was the most logical selection at our pick.


I do agree 100% on your call with Wills. I never saw that much in him, but it's interesting to read the comment today that we have been trying to 'hide him'.
 
Question Knightmare . If you were selecting for us last night and the draft unfolded the same way, who would your selections have been?

Based on your rankings, I'd imagine that Balic wouldn't have falled further than our first?

That's all in the OP. These threads are awesome. Hine's picks, versus Knights picks, and finally hindsight to see the victor
 
Thanks,some of the best stuff on big footy
 
Hey NM,

I've mentioned in the past how Hine seems to shop in 'themes'. One year he seems to load us up on defenders. Seems like this year we are loaded up on midfielders.

Perhaps he might be considering players not just on their ability to be best 22, but also on their competitive juices and ability to push their team-mates to be better. It's a 'holistic' thing (Hine did actually use that word at the members forum)

and Tall Mids with Willis and Siers being 190cm+ Tall Mids

Hine has said he like players who are Competive and very Professional.

Crockers Coach said he was amazing on the Training Track
 
Knightmare

Any idea why kerbatieh wasn't picked?

Poor endurance. My best guess is in interviews an inflated sense of self worth may have been present and on the field he is from my observations not a particularly team first guy as very much a get ball, look for goal first, look for goal second, think of something else to do third type.
It's a bit of a similar story from what I can gather with Nick Dodge.

I'd like to see Kerbatieh and particularly Dodge selected as rookies though. Both have the talent and production to have cases.

Question Knightmare . If you were selecting for us last night and the draft unfolded the same way, who would your selections have been?

Based on your rankings, I'd imagine that Balic wouldn't have falled further than our first?

As per the op. Balic can play and will have been a popular choice along really with several others who I certainly didn't expect to see available. I just personally favoured Hibberd with some of his attributes and incredibly rate of improvement despite the adversity he has faced with the injuries he has struggled with over the journey.

Hey NM,

I've mentioned in the past how Hine seems to shop in 'themes'. One year he seems to load us up on defenders. Seems like this year we are loaded up on midfielders.

Perhaps he might be considering players not just on their ability to be best 22, but also on their competitive juices and ability to push their team-mates to be better. It's a 'holistic' thing (Hine did actually use that word at the members forum)

Themes do seem present in pretty much every one of our drafts and we didn't see a clear tall, big bodied midfielder theme in this draft.

In saying that Hine mentioned in his interview that he simply selected the best available player on our draft board (the implication being most specifically that we had our 1-50 order and picked the highest rated player at each choice). In saying that though along the lines of your thinking I expect within those rankings there are may have been a leaning to a specific type and particularly those taller, bid bodied mids (with the game going that way) with a further emphasis on competitive, high character workers - with that personality profile part playing a big part in our draft day rankings from everything Derek has said throughout the past months in his interviews.

Like you Knightmare, I got very excited when our pick came along because there was still Bonner and Hibberd available.

They were clearly our best list fits as we lack so badly for ball carriers with good footskills.

But it's very hard to be critical of the selection of Sier as I simply don't know anything about him. I thought to myself for a moment that if we wanted a big bodied midfielder, then Mathieson was still also available...however the more I am reading on Sier it is obvious he has much more speed and ability to spread and his footskills look solid.

I'm also reading that a number of teams had tested him, so Hine must have been of the opinion that he wouldn't last until the next selection.

It doesn't strike me as a real 'needs' selection because we have De Goey and Crisp who are big bodied mids. But clearly 190cm mids are the future of the game and I've got no problem stocking up....especially because this guy seemingly has great pace and endurance.

It's a huge investment by Hine & co because Hibberd was the most logical selection at our pick.

I do agree 100% on your call with Wills. I never saw that much in him, but it's interesting to read the comment today that we have been trying to 'hide him'.

You're right, there were just so many unexpected sliders that it felt like Christmas, and then Christmas came and didn't deliver. Or so it felt.

Sier theoretically sounds interesting in a lot of ways. And with his height and size and with what looks like fine movement and footskills it will be interesting with his stated late growth and a late year birthday to see how he develops. We wouldn't have drafted him if he wasn't of the absolute highest character. So all those bits combined and I'm certainly intrigued and eager to see more.

Through the midfield there may be a slight acknowledgement that Pendlebury is nearing 30, Swan turns 32 this season and Thomas and Ball are both gone, so I anticipate while we have some pieces coming through that we're probably looking towards some star power, and star power with height and size. And overall our midfield numbers are lowish, with few reserve midfielders, whereas by comparison our back half is stacked with depth.

It's overall interesting to see that we have landed particularly the two tall, big bodied midfielders but it's all down to best available talents and I'm fine if that's who we see as the best guy.

and Tall Mids with Willis and Siers being 190cm+ Tall Mids

Hine has said he like players who are Competive and very Professional.

Crockers Coach said he was amazing on the Training Track

Competitive and professional is very clearly what we are after and consistently what Hine has mentioned he is focusing on through the draft. And I imagine those values are driven by Buckley firstly, but also in part some influence via Matt Rendell, and maybe the height factor somewhat from Dom Milesi as an ex Hawthorn recruiter and prior even to that Hawthorn fan who would without question be hyper aware of their recruiting style and strategies.
 
Hey NM,

I've mentioned in the past how Hine seems to shop in 'themes'. One year he seems to load us up on defenders. Seems like this year we are loaded up on midfielders.

Perhaps he might be considering players not just on their ability to be best 22, but also on their competitive juices and ability to push their team-mates to be better. It's a 'holistic' thing (Hine did actually use that word at the members forum)

It's weird, I would of thought our midfield was our strongest area prior to the draft.
 

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Opinion Knightsight v Hinesight v Hindsight 2015

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