Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[pupstar]

Breust has been better probs, Moore is probably close tho and arguably could be better next year.

Moore wins more footy than Pickett, uses it better and has kicked similar amounts of goals in a worse team. Both similar with Moore leading in scoring things like assists and involvements but are similar (like goals). Inside 50 tackles are the same.

Totally agree.

 

[briztoon]

Pickett?
This year Weightman went past him as the better small forward from his draft! Not sure how he can be AA?

Libba gets no protection from the umpires, gets tackled & pushed from behind before the ball is even tapped by the ruckman…. IF he got the same protection as a few other midfielders do, he would make the team. As he doesn’t, he isn’t AA squad level. Lots of footage around showing what I am talking about….

Agree on Andrews. I would even have him in the team.

lol what! Pickett is hands down the best young small forward in the league. And it’s not even close.

 

[Blackhawk42]

22 games v 13 in Pickett v Weightman. Hard to be an All-Australian when you only play half a season. Even on a per game basis, I'm taking Pickett if I can have one or the other on 2021 play and I don't necessarily rate them as closely as many others would. Weightman is the greater overhead threat but for tackles per game, tackles i50 and pressure acts, Pickett stands out ahead with separation at this stage to the extent where I'd even be prepared to say he's the competition's premier small forward at this time.

For tackles inside 50m, Pickett ranks third (behind only Neal-Bullen and J.Cripps). For forward 50m ground ball gets, Pickett is 5th this year (behind Papley/Hawkins/Petracca/Greene). For pressure acts he's 25th and 3rd of all forwards (behind only Butler and Neal-Bullen) and for goals kicked he's of those who aren't 190cm+ 5th (behind Cameron/Fritsch/Greene/Papley). Having that tackling/pressure/ground ball winning/contested/goal kicking combination to his game, he's pretty close to the perfect small forward and when you're looking for small forwards, you're after proficiency in those areas to complement your talls, particularly with how the key forwards have become more valuable this year. With none of the better goal kickers anywhere near him in the tackling or pressure components or those better pressure types not able to hit the scoreboard like Pickett can, he's my pick. Greene I would regard as this year's best general forward, but he hasn't played enough, and I'd pick a Zorko also ahead of Pickett, but he has played a lot of midfield, so Pickett would in a forward pocket be my choice this year if I'm to credit a specialist small forward.

Pickett from a gameplan and winning perspective has been perhaps the biggest difference for Melbourne between last year and this year. His pressure forward of centre has been huge and if you look at any metrics around their forward pressure it will show how much better it is this season with Pickett doing what he's doing this year.

And none of that should be see as me putting down Weightman. He's looking like a very good piece now and has become a valuable component in his own right.

I haven't put an All-Australian team together but Liberatore would be close if not in there. He's #1 for clearances per game, #3 for pressure acts and would be up there for tackles and contested possessions too. As with the forwards, through the midfield I like those really high pressure mids who win a high % contested and how they impact games - as factors that enhance the value of those tall marking key defenders. Liber doesn't have the impact of a lot of guys outside of stoppages, but still at stoppages there aren't many I'd want ahead of him because he allows you to play a more offensively geared midfielder, as the type of midfielder who impacts games in not necessarily the ways people generally look at.



For tackles/tackles i50/pressure acts/ground ball gets/contested/goals Pickett does have separation.

I won't discredit the season Dylan Moore has had though. He's one of Hawthorn's capable young players and has played good footy.

On 2021 play of interest. Breust or Moore? Who has played the better season?

Breust kicked more goals but basically played a regular Breust season. Not his best, not his worst.

Moore offered more up the ground and was top 5 for tackles inside 50. He got better as the year went on. For about 5 weeks before he was put on ice Moorey was starting to regularly get around 20 touches and kick a goal or two a game. It's no secret that he's been Breusts little apprentice. Next the expectation on Moore will be getting that 15 disposal average up closer to 20. If he's doing that and kicking 30 goals a season I could see an All Australian jumper in his future.

Was touted highly in his draft year from memory but surprised Hawthorn by slipping to 67. He's a pure footballer who just happens to have elite endurance. Loved watching him develop over the last 12 months.

 

[briztoon]

Knightmare what two mids would best suit Richmond say circa pick 9 and pick 18 odd

Any of Hobbs, Ward, Roberts or Erasmus at your first.

Any of Rachelle, Sinn, Chesser or Goater at your second.

 

[Stevi_Tigers]

Any of Hobbs, Ward, Roberts or Erasmus at your first.

Any of Rachelle, Sinn, Chesser or Goater at your second.

Cheers some highlights to watch

 

[Knightmare]

Breust has been better probs, Moore is probably close tho and arguably could be better next year.

Moore wins more footy than Pickett, uses it better and has kicked similar amounts of goals in a worse team. Both similar with Moore leading in scoring things like assists and involvements but are similar (like goals). Inside 50 tackles are the same.

I was suspecting this would be your response re. Breust v Moore. I completely agree with your position, just wondered if a Hawthorn supporter's perception would be any different.

Moore compared to Pickett looks better more-so across half-forward. Pickett is ideal as the pressure/crumber. So they're different roles.

Pickett is more stylistically the Cyril Rioli. Moore should be looking to win a spot more-so off of a Zac Bailey, who at this stage is a fair way ahead and really not far off All-Australian calibre. I do agree though that Moore is the better playmaker - as that type who does the better job finding those i50 targets.

Knightmare what two mids would best suit Richmond say circa pick 9 and pick 18 odd

Matthew Roberts and maybe a Josh Goater could be a possible combination to consider and would be good gets. Roberts as that ball winner who can push forward - has some Dayne Beams to him, and Goater as a taller more versatile mid who can also play back would be good example picks for consideration to give you two names to watch.

Probably a bit of a general throwaway question looking for a general throwaway answer but do you see many midfielders that'll be available in the 30s that you'd be keen on? Most phantoms only go to 30 or even 20

It's a draft with mostly midfielders as the strength and I do expect even late draft for there to be some who are worthwhile.

Bodhi Uwland I haven't heard anyone talk about (am I the only one in the country who genuinely rates him?) and I can't imagine anyone has him as a first round pick. For me he's a genuine top-10 calibre selection and someone I'd be placing a bid on early and looking to snag, but he might only in reality attract a late bid. Beyond that, maybe a Zac Taylor if there in the second round could be nice, and while he's a smaller mid, he can rack it up, moves really well and has nice skill. Mitch Knevitt as a tall mid is another good one and appealing at 194cm.

Hugh Jackson who has really been pretty poor the last month, but was great through the first half of the season could be available late/rookie and doesn't seem to be attracting a lot of AFL interest. He can really rack it up and is a sweet user of the footy.

So there are enough midfielders and a first round pick isn't required to get one.

I think as a post my next power rankings, and then for my YouTube my extended power rankings, you'll see a remarkable split between the players I'm liking this and the names the other analysts are putting forward. There are so many early draft guys where I'm of the view that I'd just rather not have to pick them, to such an extent where I'd be comfortable basically trading out of this draft and just taking a few of the value guys on my board late/rookie.

 

[Knightmare]

Breust kicked more goals but basically played a regular Breust season. Not his best, not his worst.

Moore offered more up the ground and was top 5 for tackles inside 50. He got better as the year went on. For about 5 weeks before he was put on ice Moorey was starting to regularly get around 20 touches and kick a goal or two a game. It's no secret that he's been Breusts little apprentice. Next the expectation on Moore will be getting that 15 disposal average up closer to 20. If he's doing that and kicking 30 goals a season I could see an All Australian jumper in his future.

Was touted highly in his draft year from memory but surprised Hawthorn by slipping to 67. He's a pure footballer who just happens to have elite endurance. Loved watching him develop over the last 12 months.

That's largely my view also with Breust. He's really consistently just about every year that edge of AA calibre piece and one of those better general forwards.

Will be interesting to see if Moore can become that All-Australian. I see continued improvement in his future also.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

I was suspecting this would be your response re. Breust v Moore. I completely agree with your position, just wondered if a Hawthorn supporter's perception would be any different.

Moore compared to Pickett looks better more-so across half-forward. Pickett is ideal as the pressure/crumber. So they're different roles.

Pickett is more stylistically the Cyril Rioli. Moore should be looking to win a spot more-so off of a Zac Bailey, who at this stage is a fair way ahead and really not far off All-Australian calibre. I do agree though that Moore is the better playmaker - as that type who does the better job finding those i50 targets.



Matthew Roberts and maybe a Josh Goater could be a possible combination to consider and would be good gets. Roberts as that ball winner who can push forward - has some Dayne Beams to him, and Goater as a taller more versatile mid who can also play back would be good example picks for consideration to give you two names to watch.



It's a draft with mostly midfielders as the strength and I do expect even late draft for there to be some who are worthwhile.

Bodhi Uwland I haven't heard anyone talk about (am I the only one in the country who genuinely rates him?) and I can't imagine anyone has him as a first round pick. For me he's a genuine top-10 calibre selection and someone I'd be placing a bid on early and looking to snag, but he might only in reality attract a late bid. Beyond that, maybe a Zac Taylor if there in the second round could be nice, and while he's a smaller mid, he can rack it up, moves really well and has nice skill. Mitch Knevitt as a tall mid is another good one and appealing at 194cm.

Hugh Jackson who has really been pretty poor the last month, but was great through the first half of the season could be available late/rookie and doesn't seem to be attracting a lot of AFL interest. He can really rack it up and is a sweet user of the footy.

So there are enough midfielders and a first round pick isn't required to get one.

I think as a post my next power rankings, and then for my YouTube my extended power rankings, you'll see a remarkable split between the players I'm liking this and the names the other analysts are putting forward. There are so many early draft guys where I'm of the view that I'd just rather not have to pick them, to such an extent where I'd be comfortable basically trading out of this draft and just taking a few of the value guys on my board late/rookie.

Moore's xfactor is the most underrated part of his game, look at all of the stuff that Kozzy can pull off, it's freakish but Moore literally has the nickname Moorey Magic, he's unreal super underrated and is just a genuine under 22 star.

 

[chopflop]

Moore's xfactor is the most underrated part of his game, look at all of the stuff that Kozzy can pull off, it's freakish but Moore literally has the nickname Moorey Magic, he's unreal super underrated and is just a genuine under 22 star.

Dom literally nobody called him moorey magic like ever. Except you... Just now

 

[LittleG]

lol what! Pickett is hands down the best young small forward in the league. And it’s not even close.

First half of the season he was the best small forward around. Being really involved. Second half, he wasn’t close to that level.
I watch almost as much Dees as Dogs. A good friend who is a Dees supporter initially suggested it to me. It’s close but when we are watching from behind the goals footage away from the ball, Weightman was more involved and providing more options.

 

[Psicosis]

Dom literally nobody called him moorey magic like ever. Except you... Just now

Nobody:

Dommy talking about Hawthorns kids:

 

[Suntory Boss Coffee]

Nobody:

Dommy talking about Hawthorns kids:

View attachment 1218317

It is getting ridiculous on the Hawthorn board. We have 22 future Brownlow medallists on the list! Not sure how they will all share the award though

 

[Gratees]

It is getting ridiculous on the Hawthorn board. We have 22 future Brownlow medallists on the list! Not sure how they will all share the award though

Just cut it up in to 22 little pieces

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Dom literally nobody called him moorey magic like ever. Except you... Just now

AHAHAHAHHAAHH, you clearly live under a rock.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Nobody:

Dommy talking about Hawthorns kids:

View attachment 1218317

You literally think LDU is the next Judd.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

It is getting ridiculous on the Hawthorn board. We have 22 future Brownlow medallists on the list! Not sure how they will all share the award though

Gotta spread the load, one year per player.

 

[Psicosis]

You literally think LDU is the next Judd.

Don't make up stuff to try and drag me into your sleazy salesman bucket Dommy. I've never once said that, Magic Dominic.

 

[chopflop]

AHAHAHAHHAAHH, you clearly live under a rock.

Dom. There is a search function on bigfooty. The word combination "moorey magic" features 3x in big footy history. Once in this thread and twice in two different threads. And guess who was the poster???

 

[Knightmare]

What I notice looking at Hawthorn's youth, and it has long been this way. So many of them have developed on an extreme level beyond what their ability should allow to be the case.

Day shouldn't have had the first year he did and adapted as easily as he did to AFL play. Worpel shouldn't have won a B+F. Sicily becoming as good as he has become. Impey becoming a valuable piece. Scrimshaw becoming a valuable piece. Hardwick becoming a good piece in defence. Jiath breaking out this year into a good footballer. Moore becoming a very good piece. Gunston becoming a seriously good forward? Breust becoming a seriously good forward? Mitchell becoming a Brownlow Medalist. No reasonable projections when any of these guys joined Hawthorn would suggest they could be as good as they've become.

I can name names all day that Hawthorn have developed on a level that they just shouldn't be able to do. And it's far from an exhaustive list. Stacking on top of all this, Hawthorn are consistently developing bad or inconsistent kicks into great kicks.

That's why there will be so many Hawthorn fans with TO THE MOON projections of their young players, even if they've been drafted late/rookie because there has been this continued success these past 10+ years with developing players they just shouldn't be able to develop to anywhere near the standard they're reaching.

Will it all continue with Clarkson going? We'll have to see. All I can say for sure is while Clarkson was head coach, his players have developed to levels I've never seen before given the relatively mild talent brought in a lot of the time. Sam Mitchell seems to have a knack with developing young talent and has done well with that this year which is a reason for optimism, so there is hope the youth can continue developing, but Clarkson as coach has been that consistent factor, and he has chosen his own staff which has in large part as well as with the veteran leaders Hawthorn have had in place had a huge impact. So whether that can continue without necessarily that same core of leaders, without necessarily all the same senior people inside the club, we'll have to see, and if it does, can it be to the same level? I can't say I'm predicting that success to continue. I'm expecting Hawthorn to revert back to the mean, and at least revert back closer to the mean.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Dom. There is a search function on bigfooty. The word combination "moorey magic" features 3x in big footy history. Once in this thread and twice in two different threads. And guess who was the poster???

LOL, you think it's just BF? I was mostly talking about Twitter.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Don't make up stuff to try and drag me into your sleazy salesman bucket Dommy. I've never once said that, Magic Dominic.

Didn't say you said it, but you think it. Just look at the way you speak about the man! i mean i don't blame you i love LDU.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

What I notice looking at Hawthorn's youth, and it has long been this way. So many of them have developed on an extreme level beyond what their ability should allow to be the case.

Day shouldn't have had the first year he did and adapted as easily as he did to AFL play. Worpel shouldn't have won a B+F. Sicily becoming as good as he has become. Impey becoming a valuable piece. Scrimshaw becoming a valuable piece. Hardwick becoming a good piece in defence. Jiath breaking out this year into a good footballer. Moore becoming a very good piece. Gunston becoming a seriously good forward? Breust becoming a seriously good forward? Mitchell becoming a Brownlow Medalist. No reasonable projections when any of these guys joined Hawthorn would suggest they could be as good as they've become.

I can name names all day that Hawthorn have developed on a level that they just shouldn't be able to do. And it's far from an exhaustive list. Stacking on top of all this, Hawthorn are consistently developing bad or inconsistent kicks into great kicks.

That's why there will be so many Hawthorn fans with TO THE MOON projections of their young players, even if they've been drafted late/rookie because there has been this continued success these past 10+ years with developing players they just shouldn't be able to develop to anywhere near the standard they're reaching.

Will it all continue with Clarkson going? We'll have to see. All I can say for sure is while Clarkson was head coach, his players have developed to levels I've never seen before given the relatively mild talent brought in a lot of the time. Sam Mitchell seems to have a knack with developing young talent and has done well with that this year which is a reason for optimism, so there is hope the youth can continue developing, but Clarkson as coach has been that consistent factor, and he has chosen his own staff which has in large part as well as with the veteran leaders Hawthorn have had in place had a huge impact. So whether that can continue without necessarily that same core of leaders, without necessarily all the same senior people inside the club, we'll have to see, and if it does, can it be to the same level? I can't say I'm predicting that success to continue. I'm expecting Hawthorn to revert back to the mean, and at least revert back closer to the mean.

I don't ever think it's been Clarko who's been developing these guys, it's overall just the system etc. It was Wright and Clarko doing it, then it was Sam and Clarko, and Sam is probably the best there at developing talent. Not sure about coaching yet as the only coaching Sam has done is taking West Coasts midfield to the moon in 2018, BH coach this year and doing well and being an assistant helping player development when he joined back a year or so ago.

 

[chopflop]

LOL, you think it's just BF? I was mostly talking about Twitter.

Next minute you'll be telling me all about tik tok. Come on Dom

 

[Savage Kent]

Hey KM as a saints supporter I'd like to see us pick up a gun mid at our first pick. In your opinion who is the best of the bunch who are likely to be available at our pick?

Based on your write up for Rachele he sounds like an exciting prospect. Based on our list, would Rachele make more sense compared to the other mids in the frame? As a forward how does Rachele compare to guys like Weightman, Pickett? Is he likely to be better than them?

I enjoy your analysis. Keep up the good work.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Next minute you'll be telling me all about tik tok. Come on Dom

Wait, what about tiktok. Love seeing my Moorey Magic vids there