Opinion Has this Carlton list already peaked?

[carlton_99]

I think most of your thoughts in this thread have been pretty spot on.

But Carlton's best 22 will be better off without all of the players they've delisted - even if they were fit - except Martin. Kennedy didn't quite work in that midfield balance-wise, Owies kicked goals but was limited and obstructive otherwise, and Marchbank/Cunningham really didn't belong in anyone's best 22. Martin could be a point of difference if his body held up, but it's fair enough that they got sick of its failure to do so.

So I wouldn't fear going backwards before going forward. The clear out will allow for a better best 22 to develop as soon as 2025. Depth may be a concern, so a lot comes down to successful that fitness and conditioning department is.

Doing another hamstring in an incident where he collided with Fogarty who fractured his collarbone was really the final nail in the coffin

 

[Kobe Gryant]

As said above, the Blues have axed a fair bit of their stagnated role players/depth in the hopes to bring through our kids and fast track their development who are more suited to the modern game and compliment the senior players that remain better than the players we traded and delisted in the off season.

Out of the finals contenders I'd say we're the one relying on youth development the most, purely on the basis that most of the other teams have a fairly set senior core and didnt make many changes to that mix in the off season by attacking the draft.

The Blues got rid of Kennedy, Owies, Martin, Marchbank and Cunningham who would all be best 22 when fit imo.

The only real option to replace them is through youngsters now given our delistings and trade moves of late.

I can still see us making the 8 on the back of the senior players, but imo if we're to give the flag a genuine crack it would be solely reliant on players like Moir, Hollands, Lord, Motlop etc coming on in a big way.

As for what transpires in 2025, I could see the Blues going backwards before going forwards, which I'd be fairly unhappy with given it's essentially squandering another year of prime Cripps, Curnow etc...

On the other hand, if Hollands, Jagga, Moir etc can find their place as genuine contributors on the field rather than just being along for the ride I think their upside far surpasses the players we got rid of and thus would see significant improvement to our performances.

That's all fair and well articulated, but again, I don't necessarily see Carlton as unique in that area.

Just using some of the finals contenders, all of these clubs would have a similar argument in terms of the importance of the improvement of their youngsters who are expected to play regularly, and how that's going to correlate to their premiership chances.

Key: Youth = U24

Hawthorn: Watson, Dear, Mackenzie, Ward, MacDonald, D'Ambrosio, Newcombe, Day, Ginnivan, Weddle.

Brisbane: Morris, W. Ashcroft, L. Ashcroft, Fletcher, Lohmann, Wilmot, Marshall.

Port: Horne-Francis, Burgoyne, Georgiades, Bergman, L.Evans.

GWS: Cadman, Jones, Callaghan, Ash, Green, McMullin.

Fremantle: Treacy, Amiss, Serong, Young, Jackson, Sharp, Draper, Chapman, Clark, O'Driscoll.

Geelong: Holmes, Bruhn, Henry, Neale, Dempsey, Humphries, De Koning, Smith, Clark

Sydney: Warner, Gulden, McDonald, Roberts, Cleary, Campbell.

Dogs: Ugle-Hagan, O'Donnell, Sanders, Darcy, Weightman, Freijah, Gallagher.

___________________________

I don't disagree with what you're saying at all in terms of what the Blues are doing.

It's all correct, and changing direction towards youth over regurgitating the same old/same old is a sound premise.

I just don't believe the change is going to be so dramatic that the Blues are going to be unique in that area though, or "relying on youth development more than any finals contender" as you put it.

Let's just say for the sake of argument all of Lord, Moir, Jagga, Motlop, Cowan, & Hollands (x2) are playing every single week.

If I'm off the mark and there's another youngster who should be playing instead, feel free to substitute one of the names mentioned above to your desired player.

Even if the Blues are doing that every week though, it still only puts Carlton in the same basket as most of the other finals contenders in terms of the expected improvement of their youngsters in 2025, and the roles and players they could be replacing.

So to round back to my original post, in all likelihood Carlton's premiership chances are going to be decided by the fitness and form of their top 6-10, and the tactics employed by the coaches.

Relying on youth development would be great, and it's a very real possibility that it could improve both the quality and balance of the side.

By that same token though, just about every other club - and the mentioned examples of some of the expected finals contenders - could say the exact same thing.

 

[Mr Meow]

Doing another hamstring in an incident where he collided with Fogarty who fractured his collarbone was really the final nail in the coffin

I might be in the minority for Geelong supporters but I think Martin can play 12-15 senior games in 2025.

Sometimes a move suits club and player after bad injury runs. Linc McCarthy until 2024 had some healthy years at Brisbane but only after he left Geelong.

Moir is an exciting talent though. Hollands can play. Fogarty plays his role. Maybe Jagga can start off as a creative forward flanker who chops out midfield?

 

[dazzledavey36]

How do Carlton fans rate Ollie Hollands?

 

[voorhees]

Destiny is in there own hands with the blues..
they are in a great spot to have a huge crack at the prem this year.
with that said..I said the same thing last year.

 

[Robertio]

How do Carlton fans rate Ollie Hollands?

I think he is ready to step up a notch, playing off a HBF with his running power he should be a key player for us from now on.

 

[carlton_99]

I might be in the minority for Geelong supporters but I think Martin can play 12-15 senior games in 2025.

Sometimes a move suits club and player after bad injury runs. Linc McCarthy until 2024 had some healthy years at Brisbane but only after he left Geelong.

Moir is an exciting talent though. Hollands can play. Fogarty plays his role. Maybe Jagga can start off as a creative forward flanker who chops out midfield?

If Martin can stay fit I have no doubt he will play a heap of games for Geelong in 25'. Unfortunately, his position just became untenable at Carlton - very talented but just a cursed injury run.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Proof will be in the pudding this year, if they don't win this year, surely the coach goes.

 

[Jeremias]

How do Carlton fans rate Ollie Hollands?

He’s a great runner and you can never fault the endeavour, but he has limitations.

He’s very slight so can be pushed off the ball too easily at times.

My main criticism though is the time it often takes him to get ball to boot. Has been too slow in his first 2 years and often gets caught out, whether that’s a confidence or inexperience thing, or a fundamental flaw, time will tell.

I think he can be a good player for a long time, but I don’t think he’ll ever be a star.

Proof will be in the pudding this year, if they don't win this year, surely the coach goes.

You think we sack Voss if we go deep into September but not all the way?

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Doing another hamstring in an incident where he collided with Fogarty who fractured his collarbone was really the final nail in the coffin

Fantastic player who was made of glass unfortunately.

How do Carlton fans rate Ollie Hollands?

Not as good as his brother, but looks far more at home at half back this pre season than on the wing. We'll see how that experiment goes this year.

 

[Red_man2008]

How do Carlton fans rate Ollie Hollands?

Started the season very slowly but still kept getting games. We’ve put a lot of development and time into him as a result. Second year blues would almost be true but he came good late in the year. I see him as a third year break out contender. Half back will be great for him as he can run a lot of miles. I think if he has the whole ground in front of him he shouldn’t have as many problems getting caught while trying to get his boot to ball. He will be starting in my SC backline for sure.

AND he definitely is better than his brother.

 

[Mr Meow]

Started the season very slowly but still kept getting games. We’ve put a lot of development and time into him as a result. Second year blues would almost be true but he came good late in the year. I see him as a third year break out contender. Half back will be great for him as he can run a lot of miles. I think if he has the whole ground in front of him he shouldn’t have as many problems getting caught while trying to get his boot to ball. He will be starting in my SC backline for sure.

AND he definitely is better than his brother.

Definitely better than his brother?

 

[zyzzbruh]

I've always been a curious Carlton watcher and want them to do well, but they're just not it let's be real.

Top end talent is great, but they just can't string it together. Their game plan is poor, if there is one at all. In an era of run and gun footy they're just way too disorganized, and overall a poor 'make it up as you go' ball movement team with crap decision making. Add to that their core group is aging whilst other competent teams are quickly developing a strong crop of young and depth players - their mix is starting to look lop sided and not that one of a premiership fancy. They had an opportunity in 23 but only a matter of time before teams accelerate past them. And injury is not an excuse for their non existent ball movement ability, it's still bog average even with a full strength team with Curnow and Cripps genuinely doing all the heavy lifting in many wins.

Either their players just don't have it in them, or they're coached poorly. They won't be winning anything with this crop, and especially with Voss. If i were the board i would've been on the phone with Longmire the second he stepped down with a godfather offer - they would instantly become a better offensive transition team. With their strong contested ability it really goes to show how bad they are in transition, they should be dominating the comp ferociously with that midfield group.

 

[carlton_99]

With their strong contested ability it really goes to show how bad they are in transition, they should be dominating the comp ferociously with that midfield group.

Carlton were one of the better teams in the competition when it came to scores from turnover differential which is a good metric for the transition game. 3rd in the comp overall only behind Lions and Swans (who were only slightly ahead). Still some room for improvement especially with ball movement from the defensive 50 but I think you have overstated the issue a bit.

 

[carlton_99]

Add to that their core group is aging whilst other competent teams are quickly developing a strong crop of young and depth players - their mix is starting to look lop sided and not that one of a premiership fancy.

I don't understand this at all personally. All I hear is how much Carlton rely on their top 6 or 7 core players and all bar Cripps are under 28. We have a bunch of players still playing at a high level over 28 (Cripps, Saad, Acres, Newman, Hewett, McGovern etc) and then the rest of the team are younger.

We have also brought in a bunch of younger talent over the last few years to boost our under 23 crop. Doing it now when our experienced players are still playing well gives them time to develop unlike other teams who have many more 30 year old + players that will likely retire in the next year or so and need their young players to bridge gaps immediately.

Really not seeing how our age demographic is not that of a contender when we have seen the Pies and Cats win flags with far older lists in recent years...

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

I've always been a curious Carlton watcher and want them to do well, but they're just not it let's be real.

Top end talent is great, but they just can't string it together. Their game plan is poor, if there is one at all. In an era of run and gun footy they're just way too disorganized, and overall a poor 'make it up as you go' ball movement team with crap decision making. Add to that their core group is aging whilst other competent teams are quickly developing a strong crop of young and depth players - their mix is starting to look lop sided and not that one of a premiership fancy. They had an opportunity in 23 but only a matter of time before teams accelerate past them. And injury is not an excuse for their non existent ball movement ability, it's still bog average even with a full strength team with Curnow and Cripps genuinely doing all the heavy lifting in many wins.

Either their players just don't have it in them, or they're coached poorly. They won't be winning anything with this crop, and especially with Voss. If i were the board i would've been on the phone with Longmire the second he stepped down with a godfather offer - they would instantly become a better offensive transition team. With their strong contested ability it really goes to show how bad they are in transition, they should be dominating the comp ferociously with that midfield group.

While I'd love to have Longmire as coach, I don't think you can fairly say we have no ball movement or game plan...

Our biggest Achilles heel this year was defending defensive half stoppages, which is something we did exceptionally well at in 2023. In 2025 we excelled at defending from turnover and scoring from turnover, two indicators that our transition play was actually working rather well.

I believe we finished 4th and 3rd in those metrics at the end of the year from memory, down from 1st and 1st at round 19. We finished bottom 3 for defending stoppage in our D50.

 

[fnerd]

With their list , guru for a coach , financial backing , bottom 4 team like fixture and superstar stacked side Carlton just have to be flag favourites .
It’s elephant in the room and if you don’t think so then you obviously haven’t been paying attention.

Flagton 2025’

 

[RonnieRaven]

I've always been a curious Carlton watcher and want them to do well, but they're just not it let's be real.

Top end talent is great, but they just can't string it together. Their game plan is poor, if there is one at all. In an era of run and gun footy they're just way too disorganized, and overall a poor 'make it up as you go' ball movement team with crap decision making. Add to that their core group is aging whilst other competent teams are quickly developing a strong crop of young and depth players - their mix is starting to look lop sided and not that one of a premiership fancy. They had an opportunity in 23 but only a matter of time before teams accelerate past them. And injury is not an excuse for their non existent ball movement ability, it's still bog average even with a full strength team with Curnow and Cripps genuinely doing all the heavy lifting in many wins.

Either their players just don't have it in them, or they're coached poorly. They won't be winning anything with this crop, and especially with Voss. If i were the board i would've been on the phone with Longmire the second he stepped down with a godfather offer - they would instantly become a better offensive transition team. With their strong contested ability it really goes to show how bad they are in transition, they should be dominating the comp ferociously with that midfield group.

They should have signed RTB over crazy Vossy.
I’ve said it before I’ll say it again.
Blues list is perfect for RTB.
Gun key forwards gun mids and he’d turn all the rest in to honest hard working role players.
Look at Freo’s team in 2015
He got them top of the home and away with cam Sutcliffe danyl pierce and Tommy Sheridan in the first 18.
Yes he’s failed multiple times on the last couple hurdles but so did blight with some freaks before he went to the crows.
Crazy vossy learnt his coach craft from Ken Hinkley.
Bomb it long and press forward
No accountability on the turn over
No distinct jobs for the role players
No plan b

 

[Mr Meow]

They should have signed RTB over crazy Vossy.
I’ve said it before I’ll say it again.
Blues list is perfect for RTB.
Gun key forwards gun mids and he’d turn all the rest in to honest hard working role players.
Look at Freo’s team in 2015
He got them top of the home and away with cam Sutcliffe danyl pierce and Tommy Sheridan in the first 18.
Yes he’s failed multiple times on the last couple hurdles but so did blight with some freaks before he went to the crows.
Crazy vossy learnt his coach craft from Ken Hinkley.
Bomb it long and press forward
No accountability on the turn over
No distinct jobs for the role players
No plan b

Freo fell into the same trap with Longmuir.

Send Chris Scott over there and they'd probably be defending their premiership this season.

But few sides with a lot of talent will twist rather than stick, because the win-loss column rarely looks terrible and a new coach often takes a while to get their ideas across. If you're in the contending window, that's a risk. As opposed to just trying to give the current coach the best support possible.

 

[zyzzbruh]

Carlton were one of the better teams in the competition when it came to scores from turnover differential which is a good metric for the transition game. 3rd in the comp overall only behind Lions and Swans (who were only slightly ahead). Still some room for improvement especially with ball movement from the defensive 50 but I think you have overstated the issue a bit.

I don't doubt your scores from turnover would still be on the higher end, but I think that comes from your sheer individual talent and contested ability - weight of those numbers are still going to get you winning scores on the board regardless of how bad your method can be at times.

My point is that with better coaching and decision making you guys should be absolutely dominating the comp. Watching you guys there are just way too many times the offensive build up is broken and/or opt for the dump kick. The saving grace is you have 2 of the best marking forwards in the comp that help settle that issue.

As a swans fan I think it's easy to say we are spoilt as we probably do have the best offensive transition and is scintillating to watch when we are on. Hence when I watch Carlton your build up always feels frustrating to watch. It's an obvious thing to notice from the outside looking in and I can see how you might not notice it yourself when you're so focussed on your own team. The ebbs and flows of Carltons recent seasons where your fanbase grows super optimistic and then end up annoyed throughout points of the year is always such a shock and frustration to you guys, but in 100% honesty i see it happening a mile away every time.

 

[carlton_99]

I don't doubt your scores from turnover would still be on the higher end, but I think that comes from your sheer individual talent and contested ability - weight of those numbers are still going to get you winning scores on the board regardless of how bad your method can be at times.

My point is that with better coaching and decision making you guys should be absolutely dominating the comp. Watching you guys there are just way too many times the offensive build up is broken and/or opt for the dump kick. The saving grace is you have 2 of the best marking forwards in the comp that help settle that issue.

As a swans fan I think it's easy to say we are spoilt as we probably do have the best offensive transition and is scintillating to watch when we are on. Hence when I watch Carlton your build up always feels frustrating to watch. It's an obvious thing to notice from the outside looking in and I can see how you might not notice it yourself when you're so focussed on your own team. The ebbs and flows of Carltons recent seasons where your fanbase grows super optimistic and then end up annoyed throughout points of the year is always such a shock and frustration to you guys, but in 100% honesty i see it happening a mile away every time.

I think where we disagree massively is the bolded comment. The game plan or system a coaching group tries to implement for their team is based on the players that have at their disposal. Getting the ball fast and long into situations where we are likely going to get Curnow and McKay in one-on-one matchups is part of our game plan BECAUSE we have two dominant key forwards that excel in those situations and it is an efficient way for us to score as backed up by the numbers. As I have posted previously Carlton were ranked very highly in 2024 in overall scores for and scores per inside 50. It may not look pretty but it has been effective.

I agree that Sydney have the best offensive transition play in the competition to the eye but their team makeup is very different. They have more elite ball users and a more balanced midfield than Carlton had in 2024. That allows them to get the ball to the outside effectively and move it cleanly inside 50. As they don't have the same quality of key forwards however their ball movement will obviously have to be more considered as the players themselves aren't likely to win as many one-on-one contests as the more dominant key forwards in the competition. You also get goals from the likes of Hayward and Papley - elite mid-sized and small forwards who won't be relying on one-on-one contests for their goals.

You keep saying Carlton should be dominating with that midfield group if we fixed up our ball movement but in reality the midfield was the major issue in 2024. With the likes of Cripps/Hewett/Kennedy/Carroll it was not a balanced midfield in 2024. Too many ball hunters that means if we don't win the ball at the source their opponents leak out and burn us on the outside and they can get clean inside 50 entries. More importantly for this topic, offensively we didn't have enough elite ball users around the contested mids who can get the ball as a distributor and hit a target inside 50. The likes of Cerra is massive for this who missed a lot of 2024 and is also why I am hoping to see E.Hollands get a bigger midfield role in 2025. Jagga Smith will also likely improve this area because he can also effectively get from inside to outside of a stoppage and provide more running options for our contested mids that can hit a target inside 50.

In your last comment I think if you watched Carlton when they were doing well and then when they weren't the difference was not offensive transition at all. In fact the game plan didn't change much at all imo. The big difference was our ability and then inability to lock the ball inside forward 50. We were a great forward pressure team ranking pretty much first for inside 50 tackles in 2024 for most of the year until the falloff. This is critical if you are going to target the talls as much as we do. Once it fell off teams rebounded off us far too easily and we struggled. It's why I was pretty content with us moving on Owies who is not great at reading the ball off a contest with our talls or at anything related to defensive pressure at all. The likes of Fogarty, Williams and Motlop should be far better in this area.

Overall, I think our game plan has suited the players we have at our disposal so far. With a better balanced midfield in 2025 I hope that our midfield-forward connection improves which will continue to lead to increased offensive efficiency. Movement from defensive 50 is another thing all together and I hope if a focus in the offseason. It's why I am such a massive fan of Jordan Boyd in our 23 - he is someone that always looks to hit that target in the corridor which opens up the field ahead rather than going long down the line.

 

[zyzzbruh]

I think where we disagree massively is the bolded comment. The game plan or system a coaching group tries to implement for their team is based on the players that have at their disposal. Getting the ball fast and long into situations where we are likely going to get Curnow and McKay in one-on-one matchups is part of our game plan BECAUSE we have two dominant key forwards that excel in those situations and it is an efficient way for us to score as backed up by the numbers. As I have posted previously Carlton were ranked very highly in 2024 in overall scores for and scores per inside 50. It may not look pretty but it has been effective.

I agree that Sydney have the best offensive transition play in the competition to the eye but their team makeup is very different. They have more elite ball users and a more balanced midfield than Carlton had in 2024. That allows them to get the ball to the outside effectively and move it cleanly inside 50. As they don't have the same quality of key forwards however their ball movement will obviously have to be more considered as the players themselves aren't likely to win as many one-on-one contests as the more dominant key forwards in the competition. You also get goals from the likes of Hayward and Papley - elite mid-sized and small forwards who won't be relying on one-on-one contests for their goals.

You keep saying Carlton should be dominating with that midfield group if we fixed up our ball movement but in reality the midfield was the major issue in 2024. With the likes of Cripps/Hewett/Kennedy/Carroll it was not a balanced midfield in 2024. Too many ball hunters that means if we don't win the ball at the source their opponents leak out and burn us on the outside and they can get clean inside 50 entries. More importantly for this topic, offensively we didn't have enough elite ball users around the contested mids who can get the ball as a distributor and hit a target inside 50. The likes of Cerra is massive for this who missed a lot of 2024 and is also why I am hoping to see E.Hollands get a bigger midfield role in 2025. Jagga Smith will also likely improve this area because he can also effectively get from inside to outside of a stoppage and provide more running options for our contested mids that can hit a target inside 50.

In your last comment I think if you watched Carlton when they were doing well and then when they weren't the difference was not offensive transition at all. In fact the game plan didn't change much at all imo. The big difference was our ability and then inability to lock the ball inside forward 50. We were a great forward pressure team ranking pretty much first for inside 50 tackles in 2024 for most of the year until the falloff. This is critical if you are going to target the talls as much as we do. Once it fell off teams rebounded off us far too easily and we struggled. It's why I was pretty content with us moving on Owies who is not great at reading the ball off a contest with our talls or at anything related to defensive pressure at all. The likes of Fogarty, Williams and Motlop should be far better in this area.

Overall, I think our game plan has suited the players we have at our disposal so far. With a better balanced midfield in 2025 I hope that our midfield-forward connection improves which will continue to lead to increased offensive efficiency. Movement from defensive 50 is another thing all together and I hope if a focus in the offseason. It's why I am such a massive fan of Jordan Boyd in our 23 - he is someone that always looks to hit that target in the corridor which opens up the field ahead rather than going long down the line.

I agree partly that your method is set out to Curnow and Mckays strengths which is not a completely bad thing, but i also think that is an easy out. You can still make life easier for them with better efficiency because the second they are blanketed it's game over.

Better ball use will not only make life easier for them but it would also create other avenues to goal - it creates other ways to win a game and would allow Curnow to become dangerous in other means. The group needs to be challenged. If the mindset is to just give them a basic game plan that purely matches their strengths then expect the same results in 2025, there will be no improvement. The team needs a way to improve on the last 2 seasons, and it's not as simple as expecting them to do the same things better. Some sort of different spice has to be added and for me, as you mentioned, i think that has to be a strong focus on ball use and less pragmatic movement from defensive 50.

 

[NetworkNerd]

Peak Carlton would be a 21 win season
Split Hawthorn games 1-1
Win all other games in Vic
Win 2 of Port, Sydney, Freo away

So no, have not peaked yet

 

[LFTWNG11]

The list never “peaked”… and most likely won’t peak mainly due to poor fitness and poor coaching.

It’s pretty obvious from the recruitment strategy it’s going to be very similar results to the previous three years under Voss.

 

[GC2015]

Injuries will mount again for the Blues .... closer to a rebuild than another Finals appearance

Geez. Carlton are already getting pretty unlucky this preseason with their injuries. Walsh out for at least a month and Newman's season is over before it even began. Curnow is obviously hurt as well.

Not much you can do. Just really unlucky.