Freo’s record vs top 8 teams this season

[chaosball32]

Over half way through the season and our record vs top 8 teams stands at 0-1-3. 0 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses.

The 1 draw being against Collingwood, and the 3 losses coming against Carlton, Port, and Sydney.

With us playing Sydney in Sydney this weekend, the far and away best team in the league right now, and our 2 key defenders for the game having a combined 10 or so games between them, that records looks likely to extend to 0-1-4.

The only team with a worse record against top 8 teams this season is North, who stand at 0-0-7. Freo and North are the only 2 teams yet to beat a current top 8 team this season.

You can make arguments against this saying we were robbed against Carlton, we lost by 3 points to Port, and the unfortunate circumstances of Cam McCarthy’s sudden passing meant we never stood a chance against Sydney. You could say we’ve only played half of the top 8 and still haven’t played Essendon, GWS or Geelong. You could say the fluctuant nature of the top 8 renders this stat meaningless, for example Melbourne were 4th when we played them but thanks to us handing them a 92 point smacking they dropped all the way down to 10th.

Or you can say that we are a team who struggles to handle the pressure of the best teams in the league, whether that be physical or mental pressure. You could say we are just making up the numbers in the 8 and if we do make finals our poor record against top 8 teams will become apparent. You could say that our gameplan and often negative style of play doesn’t bode well against more structured and experienced teams.

You could say that we are 5th so clearly we are doing something right, or you could say that given the nature of how tight this season is (only 2 wins separating 3rd and 13th) that it’s hard to get a grasp of how good we actually are, and despite being 5th still aren’t taken seriously because we haven’t beaten a good team yet.

Genuinely interested to hear your thoughts about this. Is it a glaring red flag, or a meaningless stat?

 

[The Feeder Club]

Yes when we beat Melbourne they were in the top 8. When Brisbane win tonight, as of tonight we have beaten a team in the top 8.
I get it and there is an asterisk against what our ladder position actually means, but it's a weird season

 

[anchor man]

Yes when we beat Melbourne they were in the top 8. When Brisbane win tonight, as of tonight we have beaten a team in the top 8.
I get it and there is an asterisk against what our ladder position actually means, but it's a weird season

Teams we have beaten early have been teams that were supposedly, according to the experts, going to be top eight.
You can only beat who is in front of you on the given day.
The crap bye rounds and opening round have made a joke of the entire season so far.

 

[Paracleet]

Our record against the Squiggle top 8 is 2-3*-1 and one not played against as yet. Probably more indicative.



*includes the Carlton game fandango

 

[s_wd6]

There’s a scenario where we lose tomorrow, and other results go a certain way and suddenly our record v the top 8 is 3-1-3.

 

[sdfc]

I'm pretty happy with fifth with some of the tripe we've dished up.

It's a good platform. If we miss it'll be because we are not good enough.

But yeah, we crack under pressure and the comp knows it.

 

[s_wd6]

Our record against the Squiggle top 8 is 2-3*-1 and one not played against as yet. Probably more indicative.

View attachment 2032875

*includes the Carlton game fandango

We’ve beaten 3 of those teams

 

[Paracleet]

We’ve beaten 3 of those teams

Sorry should be 3-3-1

Moral Ashes style 4-2-1

5-2 if Sharp had a left foot.

 

[doppo]

It's only really a relevant stat as a talking point, often for media types to downplay us or as a reason not to rate us. It's pretty useless as an actual guide to form.
Apart from Syd, everyone's form is so up and down that it's much more about when you play a team in the season versus who you play.
And the ladder is so close that losing to a team can mean they're in the 8, and beating a team means they're out on any given week.

 

[Joao]

I have zero concerns.

 

[Kapow!!!]

...and yet I genuinely think we could beat everyone currently in the 8 except Sydney. Weird season.

 

[chaosball32]

...and yet I genuinely think we could beat everyone currently in the 8 except Sydney. Weird season.

Agree. I genuinely think if things go our way, we could make a Grand Final this year. Besides Sydney, none of the other top 8 teams have fully convinced me this year. It’s one of those years where there’s a clear premiership favourite, a big gulf, then everybody else.

Which is what makes the statistic confusing. Feels like we should have beaten at least one of the top 8 teams by now given how even the season has been and how good we’ve looked at our best.

 

[Kapow!!!]

Agree. I genuinely think if things go our way, we could make a Grand Final this year. Besides Sydney, none of the other top 8 teams have fully convinced me this year. It’s one of those years where there’s a clear premiership favourite, a big gulf, then everybody else.

Which is what makes the statistic confusing. Feels like we should have beaten at least one of the top 8 teams by now given how even the season has been.

Stats without a decent sample size are always misleading and there are very, very few stats available in footy which can ever achieve anything close to a reasonable data set, especially results.

Tight games it's literally just a fraction of maturity, experience, specific training and, most importantly, luck that gets it done. Carlton loss was luck, Port was maturity, Collingwood we actually overpowered a better drilled team to that exact situation snatch some points. Brisbane wasn't Top 8 position wise but probably had a Top 8 game. Melbourne were top 8 positionwise but had a bottom 2 game.

We're literally in the position now where the games which tell us how good we are are ahead of us so we'll deserve finals if we make it. Conversely Essendon could arse finals (potentially Top 4) despite being probably the 10th or 11th best team. It's frustrating yet very compelling

 

[ImperialPurple]

Part of the reason some of the bottom half teams are in the bottom half is because we beat them. Bulldogs, Brisbane and Melbourne are all out of the 8, but because we took the points off them. It’s all swings and roundabouts till about round 18.

 

[Joao]

We're going to have 1 win after tonight anyway.

 

[pK75]

We're going to have 1 win after tonight anyway.

Yep, it’s meaningless, as of right now, it’s 1-2-1 as port have dropped out of the eight. By the end of the round it could be 3-3-1 (if we beat Sydney and dogs get into the 8 at the expense of port and Geelong) the weird fixture means we would have played 2 top 8 teams twice (Sydney and Dogs) but not played 2 others at all (GWS and Bombers)

 

[freo1]

Stats without a decent sample size are always misleading and there are very, very few stats available in footy which can ever achieve anything close to a reasonable data set, especially results.

Tight games it's literally just a fraction of maturity, experience, specific training and, most importantly, luck that gets it done. Carlton loss was luck, Port was maturity, Collingwood we actually overpowered a better drilled team to that exact situation snatch some points. Brisbane wasn't Top 8 position wise but probably had a Top 8 game. Melbourne were top 8 positionwise but had a bottom 2 game.

We're literally in the position now where the games which tell us how good we are are ahead of us so we'll deserve finals if we make it. Conversely Essendon could arse finals (potentially Top 4) despite being probably the 10th or 11th best team. It's frustrating yet very compelling

you're right. stats will show in 30 yrs we're shithouse, but really we're awesome.

 

[FreoGirl]

Agree. I genuinely think if things go our way, we could make a Grand Final this year. Besides Sydney, none of the other top 8 teams have fully convinced me this year. It’s one of those years where there’s a clear premiership favourite, a big gulf, then everybody else.

Which is what makes the statistic confusing. Feels like we should have beaten at least one of the top 8 teams by now given how even the season has been and how good we’ve looked at our best.

sure, but so many pundits had us finishing at 13 or lower, and we have shown we are better than that

 

[Piggy Smalls]

Over half way through the season and our record vs top 8 teams stands at 0-1-3. 0 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses.

The 1 draw being against Collingwood, and the 3 losses coming against Carlton, Port, and Sydney.

With us playing Sydney in Sydney this weekend, the far and away best team in the league right now, and our 2 key defenders for the game having a combined 10 or so games between them, that records looks likely to extend to 0-1-4.

The only team with a worse record against top 8 teams this season is North, who stand at 0-0-7. Freo and North are the only 2 teams yet to beat a current top 8 team this season.

You can make arguments against this saying we were robbed against Carlton, we lost by 3 points to Port, and the unfortunate circumstances of Cam McCarthy’s sudden passing meant we never stood a chance against Sydney. You could say we’ve only played half of the top 8 and still haven’t played Essendon, GWS or Geelong. You could say the fluctuant nature of the top 8 renders this stat meaningless, for example Melbourne were 4th when we played them but thanks to us handing them a 92 point smacking they dropped all the way down to 10th.

Or you can say that we are a team who struggles to handle the pressure of the best teams in the league, whether that be physical or mental pressure. You could say we are just making up the numbers in the 8 and if we do make finals our poor record against top 8 teams will become apparent. You could say that our gameplan and often negative style of play doesn’t bode well against more structured and experienced teams.

You could say that we are 5th so clearly we are doing something right, or you could say that given the nature of how tight this season is (only 2 wins separating 3rd and 13th) that it’s hard to get a grasp of how good we actually are, and despite being 5th still aren’t taken seriously because we haven’t beaten a good team yet.

Genuinely interested to hear your thoughts about this. Is it a glaring red flag, or a meaningless stat?

We beat Brisbane. I feel like it's a meaningless stat until the H&A season is completed. For example, it's not inconceivable that we beat Sydney and the Dogs beat North today. And then within 21 hours of your post we could have a perfectly neutral 3-1-3 record against other teams in the 8, or better perhaps.

*Noted we haven't played GWS or Essendon yet and would have played Dogs and Swans twice.

 

[WilloTree]

Over half way through the season and our record vs top 8 teams stands at 0-1-3. 0 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses.

The 1 draw being against Collingwood, and the 3 losses coming against Carlton, Port, and Sydney.

With us playing Sydney in Sydney this weekend, the far and away best team in the league right now, and our 2 key defenders for the game having a combined 10 or so games between them, that records looks likely to extend to 0-1-4.

The only team with a worse record against top 8 teams this season is North, who stand at 0-0-7. Freo and North are the only 2 teams yet to beat a current top 8 team this season.

You can make arguments against this saying we were robbed against Carlton, we lost by 3 points to Port, and the unfortunate circumstances of Cam McCarthy’s sudden passing meant we never stood a chance against Sydney. You could say we’ve only played half of the top 8 and still haven’t played Essendon, GWS or Geelong. You could say the fluctuant nature of the top 8 renders this stat meaningless, for example Melbourne were 4th when we played them but thanks to us handing them a 92 point smacking they dropped all the way down to 10th.

Or you can say that we are a team who struggles to handle the pressure of the best teams in the league, whether that be physical or mental pressure. You could say we are just making up the numbers in the 8 and if we do make finals our poor record against top 8 teams will become apparent. You could say that our gameplan and often negative style of play doesn’t bode well against more structured and experienced teams.

You could say that we are 5th so clearly we are doing something right, or you could say that given the nature of how tight this season is (only 2 wins separating 3rd and 13th) that it’s hard to get a grasp of how good we actually are, and despite being 5th still aren’t taken seriously because we haven’t beaten a good team yet.

Genuinely interested to hear your thoughts about this. Is it a glaring red flag, or a meaningless stat?

What round are you taking this from?

Gold Coast were in the top 8 in R 12. Lost to FREMANTLE 2 weeks later.

 

[mattis117]

If you want a more meaningful ladder, look at results vs. the top 13, separating out only the teams who's years are already over.

 

[VolgaBoatman]

Yeah, it's kind of meaningless at the moment with the competition being so close. We are now 1, 1 and 2 after Brisbane's win and would have been the same anyway if Melbourne had won.

 

[arsesmart]

These types of tallies are generally a bit circular through the early stages of the season. I'd also take late season form over early season form every day of the week.

The amount of times we've seen a team hit high form after smashing a struggler or two and carry that against top 8 teams shows the role timing and luck can have. I don't think we've had much luck with our timing at crucial moments. Sure there's more we might have been able to do...but even some of that revisionism is highly iffy.

It's all about doing whatever to get to being there or thereabouts as the season heads towards it's climax and hopefully being able to hit a heady chemistry-mix and have as many pieces as possible fall into place (particularly for a younger team).

 

[Paracleet]

These types of tallies are generally a bit circular through the early stages of the season. I'd also take late season form over early season form every day of the week.

The amount of times we've seen a team hit high form after smashing a struggler or two and carry that against top 8 teams shows the role timing and luck can have. I don't think we've had much luck with our timing at crucial moments. Sure there's more we might have been able to do...but even some of that revisionism is highly iffy.

It's all about doing whatever to get to being there or thereabouts as the season heads towards it's climax and hopefully being able to hit a heady chemistry-mix and have as many pieces as possible fall into place (particularly for a younger team).

I'd say the last time someone was this far ahead of the competition statistically after around 14 games was Collingwood in 2011. They were 13 and 1 at this point. Only 1 game ahead of Geelong but fully 45% on ahead on percentage (180! to 135).

Falling back on the 'ol squiggle they were actually way further in front than Sydney are now:
Then:

Now:


Absolute machine of a side around that time the Pies which, like us and the saints in that extended period, unfortunately hit their peak at the same time as two all time great sides happened to be in theirs.

 

[Wray27]

Maybe wait until the season pre finals games are finished and the 8 is finalised and then make a judgement.
The ladder position of the opposition is meaningless until it actually matters and that’s who you are playing in the finals.