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Footy tipping "secrets"

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Pessimistic

Cancelled
30k Posts 10k Posts HBF's Milk Crate - 70k Posts TheBrownDog
Joined
Sep 13, 2000
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Location
Melbourne cricket ground. Australia
AFL Club
Hawthorn
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Horks
Lets have them folks.

I have one which is rule No 1 for office tipping comps

"You dont have to get 8 every week you just need more than anyone else"

First you need to have a good idea who the popular tips are - the tips in the paper will give a clue to this. Some online comps even tell you which teams are most heavily tipped - it's not always the same as the media tips. If so wait as long as possible to get the best feedback.

Then enter the favourites for each game.

Next, try to work out which games are most likely to have the favourite losing. Give yourself a maximum of 2 games to change - the odds of that happening every week are very low. In some cases dont even change any. In essence make none or just one change to the favourites.

Use all the other advice people give to determine this

It makes it very much easier (only one game to agonise over)and more likely to be successful
 
I came 10th out of 180,000+ people last year in the Herald Sun weighted tipping.. My advice is Dont treat weighted tipping any different to normal tipping. I think i was 6 points off first place, which is 1-2 games in equivelant.
 
I came 10th out of 180,000+ people last year in the Herald Sun weighted tipping.. My advice is Dont treat weighted tipping any different to normal tipping. I think i was 6 points off first place, which is 1-2 games in equivelant.

Congrats, thats really good :thumbsu:

I think an obvious one is dont tip with ur heart :D
 

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Don't tip Richmond,Melbourne ever. Pick a draw if they play each other

If in a knockout comp, never rely on Freo as your guaranteed winner.
 
Enter all your tips for every game prior to Round One - picking solely the home teams or 'left hand side'.

9 times out of 10 you'll beat the total you'll end up with if you take each match as it comes on form, feel and lineups.
 
First 5 rounds base your tips on last years end of season ladder positions.

Last year I did a 'never pick Freo' rule and it worked out magnificently for me. This year I would imagine Richmond to be that team.
 
My tips on tips are the following:

Freo - If you think they are going to win, tip against them and vice versa.

Collingwood - Pick us if we are playing away. If at home and against an interstate side, pick them. If a game is sold out, pick against us. If we are favourite with the bookies, tip against us.

That's all I have.
 
Few theories. Not accepting any liability though.

Early in the season pay particular attention to which team has had the most days rest between games.

Never pick a team that is playing at a venue they've never played at before. You get a few weird venues (Canberra, Gold Coast, Tassie) each year... virgins lose.

If you have to pick a Friday night margin as your tie breaker always go with 39 points.

For the various 'showdown' type matches (Ess-Coll, Port-Adel, WCE-Frem) go for the lower ranked club, especally late in the season. All they've got to play for...
 
I don't think you should heavily weight previously mentioned factors, like a teams rest, whether they have played at a venue before, wet weather, etc. It deserves some consideriation, but shouldn't sway your vote. Normally it doesn't have an impact and the favourite wins anyway
 
with most rarely tipping teams when interstate (with good reason) footy tipping is often won by getting the melb club v melb club matches right.

Just on that point consider the following:

never tip richmond or melbourne

never tip against St Kilda at telstra or Geelong at KP

consider the outider (so long as its not Tigers or Dees) when they play on a Sat afternoon at the MCG - for some reason have noticed the Sat afternoon fixture for god knows what reason often throws up a rough result
 

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Tip Hawthorn if we play against collingwood, if you're in a highest possession comp pick Mitchell for that game. Also, don't assume that tassie is a 'fortress'. We're actually a bit hit-and-miss down there.

Remember it's no Fev no Carlton usually, so if for some reason he's not in their side tip against them.

In Collingwood/Richmond games tip Jake King to be involved in at least 4-5 scuffles.
 

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Dont know if its still running since its been a few years but in my last year before I lost interest in tipping and took up my addiction to Dream Team I just picked the favourite on centrebet's website an hour before the tipping closed. Won my comp by a fair bit too.
 
1. cheat

failing that

2. open two accounts, tip same until mid season, then when a clinche game comes up, you've got both bases covered... (everyone knows 'great' tippers secretly have 6+ accounts running)

3. some results never change: collingwood always beat sydney, hawthorn alway beat collingwood etc... if u cant decide, go on last years result...

4. never tip richmond
 

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