Brownlow: Tips, Thoughts and Smokeys

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M

mt87

Draftee
Jul 11, 2006
4
0
AFL Club
Melbourne
It clearly would have to be out of Judd and Goodwin - Judd is a love child of the umps and has had about 5 clear B.o.g's this year, Goody is just racking up quality touches week in week out in a winning team. However Goody is not a proven poller and has many stars to take votes off him - they all seem to play well at the same time.

Westy is also a chance as he comes top 5 pretty much every year, is leading possies at this stage - difference is dogs are top 4 this year as opposed to bottom 8, which will result in many more votes to their players.

Smokey: Tyson Edwards - having a better season than last year. Looked up some stats and he polled 2 and 3 votes from 15 touch games. wtf.

THoughts guys?
 
Tip - Scott West (is due for one surely)

Smokey - Was Andrew Mcleod up until the weekend but now keeping with the Bulldogs theme how about Brad Johnson?
 

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Johnno would be up there but if Tredrea/Riewoldt in'04, Pav and Hally last year, and Carey/Ablett in the 90's tought us anything its that forwards don't poll. Johnno has had some absolute blinders but dunno whether he'll get kudos for them.

Goody has featured in the Herald Sun top 5 in 11/16 games this year, and he's had 6 30+ touch games already this year. hard to see him get beaten (cept by sir Judd).
 
Personally ill have to go Judd, in a non biased sense.

The reason is, pretty much all year West Coast have been playing like sh*t, yet most games Judd is a standout player.

Adelaide have been playing bloody good all year, and with a team that has been thrashing teams all year, it becomes a bit harder whether to pick how many votes he has got, because so many of his team mates could have got votes.
 
Bollox said:
No interest anymore in th 2006 brownlow...had good money on Hayes at good odds and already started planning the holiday with the winnings...i hate that inconsiderate prik.
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i agree, took him at 51-1 after round 8 (opened at 41, drifted to 51 then firmed to 31 by end of week after 34 touches BOG) then he does a knee.
still got goody at 41-1
 
I'm going for Goodwin or Judd.

I doubt West will win (although I'll happily eat my words). He will go close (again), but will end up on his standard 18-19 votes and end up 3 or 4 behind the winner.

I'm really liking Brad Johnson as a smokey. Plenty of goals, always in the right place at the right time and can pick up 20+ touches a game.
 
I have a running tally going and have Brad Johnson in the lead by about 3 votes, followed by a 3-way tie between west/goodwin/judd

dont be so confident on Judd.. there are only really 6 possible games he has polled in.. but i have him on 3 for all those games including the dockers loss....

West/Johnson/Goodwin have been up there in about 8-10 games and that could be the difference.

i think Johnson will do a lot better than riewoldt, tredrae etc in previous years... what is his previous polling record like??

Goodes/Riewoldt will have to come home real strong to catch the top 4 id say.
 

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The Magenius said:
Interesting stat and reason why judd is favourite

Judd has kicked as many goals as west and goodwin combined this year.
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so has fevola. Judd has only played 5-6 good games - although at least 4 will be 3 voters. Goody has played 11 good games, will probably poll in 7-8, at an average of 2. will be neck and neck. Goodes and Riewoldt are no hope.
 
As a dog's fan i personally dont think West has much of a chance this year. I'd love him to win, dont get me wrong, but i just dont think he has been as good this year as he has in other years. I think Johnson will definatly be on more votes than scotty at this stages. I would have Goodwin as my faviorite, in a fair and equal world, but we all know judds ability to stand out and poll, and he could well blow the comp out of the water with 3 or so more best on's this season. Looking forward to the night, i dont really care who wins, id love johnno or westy, but i respect goodwin and judd just as much to be honest, both champions.
 
Tip- Chris Judd. Would love to see Goody win it but Judd is well recognised by the umpires and had about a month of footy where he will poll about 10 or so votes. Very hard to see him not winning his second Brownlow.

Smokey- Luke Power. Polled 17 votes in 2004 and is having his best season yet stats wise. Kicked 13 goals too and 9 games with 25+ possessions. Although the Lions have struggled should still poll well.
 
Never rated the brownlow (except when Crawf won it ;) ) because the amount of times there has been standout players and they haven't got anywhere near it.

Tredrea, Riewoldt Salmon... were all massive chances in different years and got no where near it.

We bag the umpires all year, then talk about the brownlow as if it is the be all and end all of all awards.

Having said that, I think Goodwin should win it this year, consistency all year and should have enough BOG to get him there. Judd probably needs a few more late BOG to get him back into contention.

Not sure about a dark horse..... Brad Johnson has had a ripper season, he'd be an outside chance.
 
My tip: Tie between Judd and Goodwin

Some smokies that haven't been mentioned:

- Nathan Thompson (been very prominent in the games the kangas have won or got close in - BOG or close to it.)

- Matthew Pavlich (having a good year, maybe the umpires will reward him more this year?)

- Nathan Buckley (made some handy contributions this year and is a proven vote getter)

- Brett Burton (goalkicking ability has improved heaps this season and he averages around 20 possessions.)
 
goodwin for mine, i have him in my DT and haveing watch about 6 adl games on TV he has been right up there in the best for almost all of them

Luke power is a bit of a smokey althought brisbane probably have not won enough games. He looks like a cert for their b and f
 

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Brownlow: Tips, Thoughts and Smokeys

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