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I remember this fixture being an absolute graveyard game for Geelong for the past decade. Always the overwhelming favourites and pretty much always lose. It's mind boggling to think that overconfidence might be a concern for Geelong.


In both of our most recent years where we've missed the eight (2015 and 2023), St Kilda at Marvel late in the season was the death knell. We were blown away in the second half last year and it cost us a top two finish. It was our last loss in 2022. I even remember a game around 2016 where we were smashed in the first half, mounting a furious comeback to get back in front and then they pinched it back from us with Jade Gresham and Jack Steven goals in the last couple of minutes.


I believe Rowan Marshall has six votes from his last two games against us and seven from his last three, so I'd be interested to see how he's pulled up after he had ice on his leg on the bench in the last quarter on Sunday. But I don't feel good about this game at all.


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