Analysis Adelaide vs Sydney list builds - 2015 to 2023

[BACCS]

For fun, I just went through Sydney's 1st round draft haul since 2015

Callum Mills - 2015
Oliver Florent - 2016
Matt Ling - 2017
Nick Blakey - 2018
Dylan Stephens - 2019
Logan McDonald - 2020
Braedon Campbell - 2020
Angus Sheldrick - 2021
no 1st round pick - 2022
Will Green - 2023

So of that group - Mills, Florent, Blakey, Campbell & McDonald are all top line players. Busts are Ling, Stephens and Sheldrick and we have no idea about Green at this stage.

So of the 9 1st round picks they had in that period, 5 of them are genuine topline players with 3 having played over 100 games and 2 over 150 games. so its a 55% strike rate with 1st round picks

This is regardless of the later picks they also nailed.

In that same time, here are our 1st round picks

Wayne Milera - 2015
Tom Doedee - 2015
Jordan Galluci - 2016
Darcy Fogarty - 2017
Chayce Jones - 2018
Ned McHenry - 2018
Fischer McAsey - 2019
Riley Thilthorpe - 2020
Luke Pedlar - 2020
Brayden Cook - 2020
Josh Rachele - 2021
Max Michalanney - 2022
Dan Curtin - 2023
Charlie Edwards - 2023
Oscar Ryan - 2023

That is 14 1st round picked players

Of this group and still at the club, Fogarty, Thilthorpe, Rachele, Michalanney and maybe Milera are the hits so far. Like with Will Green at Sydney, its too early to say on Curtin, Edwards and Ryan. Cook and Pedlar are at the crossroads where they could go on to become good p;layers or they might not. Galluci, Jones, McHenry, McAsey are busts and Doedee is gone

So right now, that is 5 of 14 players we have that we can reasonably say are worthy picks in the 1st round - 35% hit rate over a greater number of picks. Now it may rise if Curtin does what we all expect and become a star, Edwards and Ryan may also come on - we just don't know as yet.

Its merely just a look at the 2 clubs to see what sort of strike rate they have had with their 1st round picks in that window of time. Sydney with les picks seem to have had more 'luck' it seems to date.

Good analysis, don't disagree with any of that.

Lets now have a look at what both clubs have done with later picks and trades over the same period (must be still currently on the list and played at AFL level with that club):
2015 - Tom Papley (Sydney)
2016 - Robbie Fox (Sydney); Elliot Himmelberg (Adelaide)
2017 - Tom McCartin, Joel Amartey (Sydney); Lachie Murphy (Adelaide)
2018 - Sam Wicks, James Rowbottom, Justin McInerney, Hayden McLean (Sydney); Will Hamill, Kieran Strachan, Lachie Sholl, Jordon Butts
2019 - Chad Warner (Sydney); Harry Schoenberg, Josh Worrell, Lachie Gollant, Ben Keays (Adelaide)
2020 - Errol Gulden (Sydney); Mitch Hinge, James Borlase, Brayden Cook, Sam Berry, Nick Murray, Patty Parnell (Adelaide)
2021 - Peter Ladhams, Corey Warner, Matt Roberts (Sydney); Jordan Dawson, Jake Soligo, Luke Nankervis (Adelaide)
2022 - Aaron Francis (Sydney); Izak Rankine, Max Michalanney, Billy Dowling, Mark Keane (Adelaide)
2023 - Taylor Adams, Brodie Grundy, James Jordon (Sydney); Chris Burgess, Dan Curtin (Adelaide)

Out of Sydney's 17 selections, these are regular or semi regular best 22 players (13 hits):
Papley, McCartin, Chad Warner, Adams, Grundy, Fox, Amartey, Wicks, Rowbottom, McInerney, McClean, Jordon, Roberts

Out of Adelaide's 25 selections, these are regular or semi regular best 22 players (16 hits):
Murphy, Sholl, Butts, Worrell, Schoenberg, Keays, Hinge, Murray, Cook, Berry, Dawson, Soligo, Nankervis, Rankine, Michalanney, Keane

There is some talent on both sides that are only recent draftees but are showing promise; however, left them out of this exercise for simplicity.

These were posted in the Nankervis thread, but they could get lost in there and wanted to get more opinions on this. Have used Sydney as the example for this exercise as we finished in similar positions last year and now they've rocketed ahead of us.

Are the list builds that different in terms of quality? Should we be this far behind Sydney at this stage of our list build, or is coaching and lack of exposure of the list holding us back?

Sydney built a fair portion of their current best 22 during 2015-2019 and then topped up well in 2023; while Adelaide has had most hits from 2019-2023.

 

[Archie87]

Sydney having an Academy is a huge part of their success. Having Heeney as a mid and another year into Guilden and Blakey is pretty much what has rocketed them up the ladder...

Yes, our own list management has been rather ordinary and Sydney have had some recruiting wins with the likes of Warner and bringing in Grundy but they aren't a top 4 side without those Academy picks...

 

[BACCS]

Sydney having an Academy is a huge part of their success. Having Heeney as a mid and another year into Guilden and Blakey is pretty much what has rocketed them up the ladder...

Yes, our own list management has been rather ordinary and Sydney have had some recruiting wins with the likes of Warner and bringing in Grundy but they aren't a top 4 side without those Academy picks...

Oh that has certainly helped them, but are the lists 7 wins different in terms of quality since the end of 2023? I know the ladder says that obviously, but more referring to whether this is more of a coaching and development issue.

 

[StonesThrow]

Sydney are better at everything. In addition they get a handy leg up with the academy picks. Imo they would be regular finalists without the academy. Let's see where the current crop takes them (Mills, Heeney, Gulden, Campbell) in terms of flags

 

[MarcusP2]

These were posted in the Nankervis thread, but they could get lost in there and wanted to get more opinions on this. Have used Sydney as the example for this exercise as we finished in similar positions last year and now they've rocketed ahead of us.

Are the list builds that different in terms of quality? Should we be this far behind Sydney at this stage of our list build, or is coaching and lack of exposure of the list holding us back?

Sydney built a fair portion of their current best 22 during 2015-2019 and then topped up well in 2023; while Adelaide has had most hits from 2019-2023.

The level of what are considered 'hits' aren't remotely the same.

Chad Warner and Errol Gulden are hits and so are Berry and Schoenberg?

 

[BACCS]

The level of what are considered 'hits' aren't remotely the same.

Chad Warner and Errol Gulden are hits and so are Berry and Schoenberg?

Well that’s fairly shallow analysis. Dawson, Rankine and Soligo would be our comparable players there.

Nankervis vs McInerney
Worrell or Keane vs McCartin
Cook vs Wicks

It’s a bit hard with the talls as our hits are largely KPDs while theirs are KPFs.

I would be hopeful that Dowling and Taylor could be our version of Rowbottom and Adams, as we don’t have that type of player yet.

This is the type of analysis I’m talking about.

 

[BACCS]

Ruck is obviously the most glaring hole between the lists

 

[BACCS]

Rachele has the most potential on our list to do what Sydney has done with Heeney this year, but I also hope it doesn’t take 8 seasons for the club to make him a full time mid like Sydney has done with Heeney.

 

[MarcusP2]

Well that’s fairly shallow analysis. Dawson, Rankine and Soligo would be our comparable players there.

Nankervis vs McInerney
Worrell or Keane vs McCartin
Cook vs Wicks

It’s a bit hard with the talls as our hits are largely KPDs while theirs are KPFs.

I would be hopeful that Dowling and Taylor could be our version of Rowbottom and Adams, as we don’t have that type of player yet.

This is the type of analysis I’m talking about.

No, because we acquired Dawson and Rankine with first round picks. I'm talking later picks.

 

[Scorpus]

Sydney extract more value out of role players which suggests to me there is a large difference in coaching

 

[BACCS]

No, because we acquired Dawson and Rankine with first round picks. I'm talking later picks.

That’s not the analysis, it’s just trade and acquisitions through draft picks, no need to overcomplicate it. Sydney has traded out first round picks too. This is trying to highlight the many mechanisms lists are built with and go beyond the ‘herp derp can’t draft in first round herp derp’.

 

[BACCS]

Sydney extract more value out of role players which suggests to me there is a large difference in coaching

Yes, exactly what I’ve been trying to get at by doing this comparison. The top end talent on both lists is there, but they get way more out of role players like Wicks and even Jordon this year.

 

[Scorpus]

Yes, exactly what I’ve been trying to get at by doing this comparison. The top end talent on both lists is there, but they get way more out of role players like Wicks and even Jordon this year.

They've also developed players better.

For example Rachele has gone backwards, while Gulden and Blakey have improved

Guys like Amartey and McLean starting to look AFL quality while Himmelberg never has.

Just some examples

 

[jackster83]

Compare their coaching panel to the bargain basement bunch of shit we've assembled.

That's the biggest difference.

 

[1970crow]

Sydney extract more value out of role players which suggests to me there is a large difference in coaching

I expect they demand more, we satisfy ourselves with metrics unrelated to footballing performance.

 

[Mutineer]

Sydney are better at everything. In addition they get a handy leg up with the academy picks. Imo they would be regular finalists without the academy. Let's see where the current crop takes them (Mills, Heeney, Gulden, Campbell) in terms of flags

Wicks goes alright too.

 

[Crows I Am]

I have been thinking about our lack of depth and our recent drafting performance. It has been clear to everyone that our midfield was our biggest weakness and we have all been crying out for the club to draft or trade for that blue chip A grade mid. The club has been trying to address this over the last few years in the draft but instead of targeting the premium top end talent, they have gone with the scattergun approach of bringing in as many options as they could and hoping some would end up being a top line mid.

Below is a summary of our national draft picks from the last 6 years (Bold are no longer with the club)

2018 - Jones, Mchenry, Hamill, Sholl
2019 - McAsey, Schoenberg, Worrell, Oconnor, Gollant
2020 - Thilthorpe, Pedlar, Cook, Berry, Rowe
2021 - Rachele, Soligo, Taylor
2022 - Michalanney, Dowling, Bond
2023 - Curtin, Edwards, Ryan

Breaking down these selections a bit further looking at which areas we have been targeting.

Mids - Jones, Mchenry, Schoenberg, Pedlar, Berry, Rachele, Soligo, Taylor, Dowling, Bond, Edwards
Key Forwards - Thilthorpe
Medium Forwards/Utility - Sholl, Oconnor, Gollant, Cook, Rowe
Key Defenders - Mcasey, Worrell, Curtin
Medium Defender - Michalanney, Ryan

So in that time we have heavily focused on trying to improve the midfield with quantity over quality. But by doing this we have ignored other areas of our list. The flow on effect to this is we are now having to play players out of position as there are only limited midfield positions available. So you end up with guys like Berry, Pedlar and Dowling all having to play half forward if they ever want to play in the AFL side. The only genuine half forward we have drafted is Cook. We haven't drafted an actual small forward for a long time and instead expect our guys drafted as mids to play this role.

We have totally ignored the ruck position and now find ourselves in desperate need of someone to take over from ROB. We have only brought in Thilthorpe as a key forward and can now see we have no other depth when he is out injured.

The worst part is that during this time of bringing in as many midfield options as we can to try and find that A grade mid, our two best options are players we have traded in (Dawson and Rankine). Soligo is really the only player we have drafted that looks to be capable of being that player. Because we have brought so many mid options in, we are not getting a proper look at some of these guys in their preferred position and giving them the best chance to succeed.

I understand that you need to have a very good midfield if you are going to be a serious premiership contender. But you need quality all over the ground. Because of our poor drafting over the last few years we have so many holes in our side and our depth is awful.

 

[BACCS]

They've also developed players better.

For example Rachele has gone backwards, while Gulden and Blakey have improved

Guys like Amartey and McLean starting to look AFL quality while Himmelberg never has.

Just some examples

Himmelberg has shown AFL level qualities, just never consistently. However, RT and Fog should be better players for us in that position. Both clubs develop KPDs really well from cheap picks.

In fairness to Rachele, Heeney was quite inconsistent in his first few seasons too and heading into the midfield in his 9th season has been his true breakout as a player. Far too early to say Rachele is going backwards as a 3rd year player.