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People underestimate the advantage of a side sending players for surgery round 22 or 23 (if their season is over by then) as opposed to after the grand final. That can end up being a 6 or 7 week difference in the end. Geelong's strong start in 2024 compared to 2023 was a good example of that effect.

And yeah I'd say on average teams are going to be less motivated to put in a serious amount of work before Christmas if they've just won a flag. So a lot of other teams probably start fitter and in better condition for at least the first couple of months of the season. The dynasty sides have got around this by not having such an old list - players less broken down etc.