2016 AFL - Round 22

[balmainforever]

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\West Coast |$1.92|$1.92|$1.92|$1.85|$1.91|$1.92
\Hawthorn |$1.92|$1.92|$1.92|$1.95|$1.91|$1.92
\|line:W2.5|line:H0.5|line:H0.5|line:W1.5|line:W1.5|line:N/A
\total score:|***.5|170.5|***.5|***.5|170.5|170.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\North Melb. |$3.15|$3.40|$3.40|$3.15|$3.25|$3.35
\Sydney |$1.38|$1.32|$1.32|$1.36|$1.35|$1.33
\|line:18.5|line:19.5|line:19.5|line:18.5|line:19.5|line:19.5
\total score:|***.5|167.5|***.5|***.5|166.5|166.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Richmond |$2.05|$1.98|$2.00|$2.00|$2.00|$1.96
\St.Kilda |$1.80|$1.83|$1.82|$1.82|$1.82|$1.87
\|line:S2.5|line:S1.5|line:S2.5|line:S2.5|line:S2.5|line:S1.5
\total score:|***.5|168.5|***.5|***.5|168.5|169.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\G-W Sydney |$1.05|$1.01|$1.02|$1.03|$1.025|$1.02
\Fremantle |$11.00|$19.00|$14.00|$13.00|$12.00|$15.00
\|line:55.5|line:57.5|line:56.5|line:57.5|line:57.5|line:57.5
\total score:|***.5|168.5|***.5|***.5|169.5|169.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Collingwood |$1.36|$1.32|$1.33|$1.33|$1.30|$1.33
\Gold Coast |$3.25|$3.40|$3.35|$3.35|$3.60|$3.35
\|line:20.5|line:19.5|line:20.5|line:20.5|line:20.5|line:20.5
\total score:|***.5|176.5|***.5|***.5|178.5|177.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Port Adelaide |$5.25|$6.05|$5.50|$5.50|$5.75|$5.50
\Adelaide|$1.18|$1.13|$1.15|$1.15|$1.14|$1.15
\|line:34.5|line:34.5|line:32.5|line:33.5|line:34.5|line:34.5
\total score:|***.5|183.5|***.5|***.5|182.5|185.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Carlton |$3.50|$3.80|$3.70|$3.60|$3.60|$3.45
\Melbourne |$1.33|$1.27|$1.28|$1.30|$1.30|$1.32
\|line:20.5|line:22.5|line:22.5|line:21.5|line:21.5|line:21.5
\total score:|***.5|170.5|***.5|***.5|170.5|170.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Brisbane |$14.00|$14.00|$14.00|$14.00|$12.00|$15.00
\Geelong |$1.03|$1.02|$1.03|$1.02|$1.025|$1.02
\|line:59.5|line:58.5|line:59.5|line:58.5|line:57.5|line:57.5
\total score:|***.5|185.5|***.5|***.5|190.5|190.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Essendon |$11.00|$11.00|$11.00|$11.00|$10.00|$13.00
\West.Bulldogs |$1.05|$1.03|$1.04|$1.04|$1.04|$1.03
\|line:52.5|line:51.5|line:52.5|line:50.5|line:52.5|line:52.5
\total score:|***.5|166.5|***.5|***.5|168.5|166.5

ODDS AT 22.00 ON 15/08/16

 

[Zevon]

Keen on West Coast @ $1.92 (Crown).

I expect there to be a bit of debate about this game with a decent case to be made for both sides, but I'm still not quite sold on everything being rosy for the Hawks after yesterday. The barnstorming first quarter was awesome but an understrength North had them on toast in the middle two quarters despite spotting them an 8 goal start; the Roos probably should have been a couple of goals up at the last change.

 

[srobbo]

Keen on West Coast @ $1.92 (Crown).

I expect there to be a bit of debate about this game with a decent case to be made for both sides, but I'm still not quite sold on everything being rosy for the Hawks after yesterday. The barnstorming first quarter was awesome but an understrength North had them on toast in the middle two quarters despite spotting them an 8 goal start; the Roos probably should have been a couple of goals up at the last change.

Agree. Will be all over West Coast. Think Giants win & Nic Nat back has given them that 2nd wind they've lacked all year.

 

[Cringle]

Hawthorn to win at $1.87
Sydney (-18.5) at $1.87
St Kilda (-2.5) at $1.87
Stake @ $6.54

not sold on Hawthorn though...

 

[chrisdon16]

North/Sydney-U182 (got on before the drop)
Collingwood/Gold Coast-O175.5
Brisbane/Geelong-O188.5
Essendon/Dogs-U168.5

 

[AFLFootyChick]

Oscar McDonald (Melb.) got the Rising Star nod for Round 21. He's currently 250-1 on Sportsbet. Same situation as Dunkley last week. Dunkley was 250-1 and came in to 101-1 after the nod. A $100 bet became $149 on the cash out. Will the same thing happen this week? Not sure. Just a heads up.

 

[aFiimOnz]

Liking these odds in the behinds market.

GWS vs Fremantle - Fremantle O 1.5 Behinds 4th Quarter @ 1.68

• Freo have hit o 1.5 behinds in their 4th quarters 17/20 times this year in all games.
• Freo have hit o 1.5 behinds in their 4th quarters in 8/10 times this year in their away games.
• GWS have conceded o 1.5 behinds against opposition 15/20 times in all their 4th quarters.
• GWS have conceded o 1.5 behinds against opposition 8/10 times in 4th quarters at home.
• Fremantle also scored o 1.5 behinds (3) against GWS in the 4th quarter in their previous meeting.

 

[dandyjester]

North/Sydney-U182 (got on before the drop)
Collingwood/Gold Coast-O175.5
Brisbane/Geelong-O188.5
Essendon/Dogs-U168.5

Bris/Geel at 185.5 Sports

Sent from my SM-G900I using Tapatalk

 

[benji21]

Brisbane game at 188.5 what am i missing?

 

[chrisdon16]

Brisbane game at 188.5 what am i missing?

It changed in the last half hour

 

[chrisdon16]

Port/Adelaide-O182.5

 

[benji21]

It changed in the last half hour

Yeah just seems low considering how high scoring has been there all year

 

[OhhhhhCyril]

Hawthorn's form hasn't been flash all season, however I feel this is a must win game and we might go into this with the same mindset as we did v Sydney and Port. Happy to have a nibble at us when we get out to $2 (doesn't happen often) I remember round 2 this season, we lost to Geelong and all the money came for WC, we drifted out to $2.15 and never looked like loosing all day.

 

[chrisdon16]

Yeah just seems low considering how high scoring has been there all year

It is, and some people may disagree with this but it's at the Gabba during the day forecast sunny 23, warm weather. Makes it easier to play. At the gabba this year Brisbane have allowed 131.5 points/game including teams that aren't high scoring teams (Freo, Collingwood, Carlton, gold coast) but have also scored 82.7 themselves. Plus Geelong need % for top 4, they're currently behind Sydney, Adelaide and GWS on %

 

[chrisdon16]

GWS/Freo-O168.5, forecast wasn't great but the latest update has just been changed to mostly sunny day with an early shower (0-1mm)

 

[TheScream]

Only bet for this weekend is gonna be on the giants. How is the line only at 55ish? Giants off a loss should murder them, especially in the first quarter/half.

2U Giants -13.5 Q1 @1.9 - SB
1U Giants 33+ Q1 @8.5 - SB
5U Giants -27.5 H1 @1.93 - SB
4U Giants -57.5 @1.92 - SB
1U Giants -99.5 @9.5 - B365

 

[tan0]

Hawthorn to win @ 1.92
Saints (-1.5) @ 1.92
Gold Coast (+19.5) @ 1.92



What do you fellas reckon of my picks? Personally feel Hawks at even odds are value given they are top of the table and favourites and with the cash back offer on SB seems like a very decent shout. Saints look good against weaker teams and so does GC but I'm taking the line because their loses against weaker teams, if it does happen against the Pies, have been small.

Let me know what you think, still very much new to Footy betting but just my two cents...

 

[pcrowle55]

Oscar McDonald (Melb.) got the Rising Star nod for Round 21. He's currently 250-1 on Sportsbet. Same situation as Dunkley last week. Dunkley was 250-1 and came in to 101-1 after the nod. A $100 bet became $149 on the cash out. Will the same thing happen this week? Not sure. Just a heads up.

how does this constantly occur? slack bookies?

 

[Jugada]

Im more surprised that they even shorten these no hopers at all this late into the season

 

[AFLFootyChick]

how does this constantly occur? slack bookies?

Dunkley came in, but it took until Thursday, yet he's still not listed as the nominee. Last I checked, earlier this evening, McDonald was still 250-1 and not listed as this week's nominee. Go figure?! Not expecting them to win. My point was to give a head's up for the cash out and quick buck. I haven't backed McDonald this week. Not quite sure how much he'll come in by. It was an easy $49 profit on Dunkley, for doing nothing but wait for the odds to come in.

 

[benji21]

Jumped on over 188.5 Brisbane game. Adelaide game over 181.5

And round specials Brisbane/geelong highest scoring game @ 4

 

[chrisdon16]

Carlton/Melbourne-U168.5
Game capped at 165.5. 80% chance of rain Sunday in Melbourne, up to 6mm.

 

[mookieb]

Hawthorn to win @ 1.92
Saints (-1.5) @ 1.92
Gold Coast (+19.5) @ 1.92



What do you fellas reckon of my picks? Personally feel Hawks at even odds are value given they are top of the table and favourites and with the cash back offer on SB seems like a very decent shout. Saints look good against weaker teams and so does GC but I'm taking the line because their loses against weaker teams, if it does happen against the Pies, have been small.

Let me know what you think, still very much new to Footy betting but just my two cents...

The Hawks game had a similar scenario at the end of last year and we won the regular season game very narrowly, but then lost the final a couple of weeks later (although there were a few quirky coaching moves on the Hawks side). Hawks have been very up and down, but good on the road of late (beat Sydney) whereas the WC win might be the spur they need to escape being good but not very good. I wouldn't tip either side without the fall back of the SB special.

Saints seem good value. Very hard to beat against teams outside the 8. Won their two games at the G by good margins. Have a great record of late when not travelling. They take a bit of a hit with Fisher and perhaps Hickey out, but have proven themselves a better team than Richmond and could well win this quite easily if Richmond come off flat after their collapse against the Cats.

GC vs Coll is a tough one because at this stage of the season you have to guess which teams are going to have a crack and which one's have put the cue in the rack. Coll were fantastic last week and Gold Coast lost to Essendon so you would have to be assuming there was going to be a significant improvement by GC. This realistically is Coll last chance for a win whereas GC face off with Port next week where I expect they will get their final win (even though they are dogs at this stage). GC might keep it close but hard to tell.

 

[tan0]

The Hawks game had a similar scenario at the end of last year and we won the regular season game very narrowly, but then lost the final a couple of weeks later (although there were a few quirky coaching moves on the Hawks side). Hawks have been very up and down, but good on the road of late (beat Sydney) whereas the WC win might be the spur they need to escape being good but not very good. I wouldn't tip either side without the fall back of the SB special.

Saints seem good value. Very hard to beat against teams outside the 8. Won their two games at the G by good margins. Have a great record of late when not travelling. They take a bit of a hit with Fisher and perhaps Hickey out, but have proven themselves a better team than Richmond and could well win this quite easily if Richmond come off flat after their collapse against the Cats.

GC vs Coll is a tough one because at this stage of the season you have to guess which teams are going to have a crack and which one's have put the cue in the rack. Coll were fantastic last week and Gold Coast lost to Essendon so you would have to be assuming there was going to be a significant improvement by GC. This realistically is Coll last chance for a win whereas GC face off with Port next week where I expect they will get their final win (even though they are dogs at this stage). GC might keep it close but hard to tell.

Yeah, feeling most confident with the Saints tip - the look very good against mid-bottom table teams. Reasoning behind the GC tip is similar to the Saints one - with the exception of losses to Demons, Lions, Dons and Tigers most of which were less than 20 points hence the line. Expecting them to go out there and put in a good shift following the uneventful loss to the Dons but close games against both the Giants and Demons previously. Same goes with Hawks really - they're 3 time champions for a reason. I trust they'll know when a good shift from them is needed.

Thanks for the comment mate, just one more question: just recently started getting into footy in general. How do you identify the key players in each team? Perhaps it's due to the reason I don't watch the games very often…

 

[mookieb]

Yeah, feeling most confident with the Saints tip - the look very good against mid-bottom table teams. Reasoning behind the GC tip is similar to the Saints one - with the exception of losses to Demons, Lions, Dons and Tigers most of which were less than 20 points hence the line. Expecting them to go out there and put in a good shift following the uneventful loss to the Dons but close games against both the Giants and Demons previously. Same goes with Hawks really - they're 3 time champions for a reason. I trust they'll know when a good shift from them is needed.

Thanks for the comment mate, just one more question: just recently started getting into footy in general. How do you identify the key players in each team? Perhaps it's due to the reason I don't watch the games very often…

You could do a player model to identify which players are elite, good, average etc as a guide. Alternatively you identify key players in respect of matchups ie Gawn against a weak ruck, Buddy against the Saints last week (no logical matchup), Ade forwards (mobile and good marking options) vs Port backs (young, unproven). Richmond are pretty reliant on Dustin Martin, Dangerfield for Geelong. WCE are average without Nic Nat.

Tipbetpro.com have a player rating model for the top 100 players.