Friday August 16th
7:40 PM
Essendon vs Sydney
Prediction: Sydney by 17 points.
Expanded Reasoning: Sydney heads into this match with a strong incentive to secure their top spot on the ladder, which adds an extra layer of motivation for them to perform. Their recent form, highlighted by key victories, suggests that they are peaking at the right time as they gear up for finals. Essendon, while competitive, has shown inconsistency against top-tier teams, struggling to maintain performance levels throughout games. Sydney’s ability to apply pressure and capitalize on turnovers will be crucial, especially given Essendon’s tendency to falter under sustained pressure. Additionally, Sydney’s defense, combined with their forward line’s efficiency, should allow them to control the game, particularly in the second half when they have often pulled away from their opponents. Essendon will need to be at their absolute best to challenge Sydney, but the Swans’ superior form and the stakes at hand make them the likely winners in this encounter.
Saturday August 17th
1:45 PM
Gold Coast vs Melbourne
Prediction: Gold Coast by 29 points.
Expanded Reasoning: This match presents a fascinating dynamic as both teams are out of finals contention, yet Gold Coast has significantly more to play for, particularly at home where they have been dominant. The Suns’ recent form, especially their one-point victory after the siren against Essendon, shows their resilience and fighting spirit. With Melbourne missing key players like Christian Petracca, Steven May, and Clayton Oliver, the Demons are severely weakened, especially in the midfield and defensive areas. Gold Coast’s Ben King is in excellent form, and with May out, he could have a field day, further tipping the scales in the Suns’ favor. Melbourne’s recent performances indicate that they may have mentally checked out of the season, making them vulnerable to a heavy defeat, particularly against a team like Gold Coast that thrives at home and will be eager to finish the season on a high note.
1:45 PM
GWS Giants vs Fremantle
Prediction: GWS by 19 points.
Expanded Reasoning: The GWS Giants are in a rich vein of form, having secured six consecutive wins, which has propelled them into the top-four conversation. Playing at home, where they have been particularly strong, gives them an additional edge. Fremantle, meanwhile, is fighting for their finals spot, making this game crucial for their season. However, the Giants have shown consistency and resilience, particularly in their midfield, which could be bolstered by the return of Stephen Coniglio and Kieren Briggs. Fremantle will need to be at their best defensively to contain the Giants’ potent forward line, led by Jesse Hogan, who has been in excellent form. Given that GWS has scored heavily in recent games and their ability to control the tempo and dictate play at home, they are deserved favorites. Fremantle’s challenge will be significant, but the Giants’ momentum and home advantage should see them secure a critical win.
4:35 PM
Collingwood vs Brisbane
Prediction: Brisbane by 9 points.
Expanded Reasoning: Both teams have had turbulent seasons, but Brisbane has managed to find form at the right time, positioning themselves as strong contenders as they head towards the finals. Collingwood, on the other hand, faces a must-win scenario to keep their finals hopes alive. Historically, Brisbane has had the upper hand in this matchup, and their confidence will be bolstered by their overall stronger form in recent weeks. While Collingwood will draw on the memory of their earlier win against Brisbane this season, the Lions’ consistency and ability to perform under pressure give them a slight edge. The match is expected to be tightly contested, with both teams having plenty at stake. However, Brisbane’s more consistent forward line and their ability to capitalize on Collingwood’s defensive lapses make them the slight favorites in what should be a close and thrilling encounter.
7:30 PM
Port Adelaide vs Adelaide
Prediction: Adelaide by 13 points.
Expanded Reasoning: The Showdown between Port Adelaide and Adelaide is always a highly anticipated match, and this edition is no different. Despite Port Adelaide’s strong position on the ladder, Adelaide has been playing with a newfound freedom, having nothing to lose at this stage of the season. The Crows have won the last three Showdowns, which gives them a psychological edge heading into this game. Port Adelaide has a lot on the line, particularly their top-four spot, but the pressure might weigh heavily on them, especially against an Adelaide side that is playing with confidence and flair. The Crows’ recent performances, including a dominant win over the Western Bulldogs, suggest they are more than capable of pulling off an upset, especially if Port Adelaide shows any signs of vulnerability. Adelaide’s ability to disrupt Port Adelaide’s game plan and their recent head-to-head success make them a genuine threat in this match.
7:30 PM
St Kilda vs Geelong
Prediction: Geelong by 17 points.
Expanded Reasoning: Geelong’s quest to lock in a top-four spot is a significant motivating factor for this match against St Kilda. The Cats have been consistent performers in recent weeks, with Patrick Dangerfield leading the way in what could be a career-best run of form. Geelong’s experience in navigating high-stakes matches gives them a crucial edge over a St Kilda side that, while showing signs of improvement, is still inconsistent. The Saints have been competitive, particularly at Marvel Stadium, but Geelong’s need to secure a win to solidify their finals position makes them the more determined and likely victors. While St Kilda might challenge early on, Geelong’s ability to grind out wins, particularly in low-scoring contests, should see them through. The Cats’ superior experience, coupled with their current form, suggests they will emerge victorious in this critical clash.
Sunday August 18th
1:10 PM
Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne
Prediction: Western Bulldogs by 1-39 points.
Expanded Reasoning: The Western Bulldogs have been one of the more unpredictable teams this season, but their need to bounce back after a disappointing loss to Adelaide is critical. North Melbourne, while showing fight, has struggled to close out games, as seen in their recent loss to West Coast. The Bulldogs have a strong track record against North Melbourne, having won their last six encounters, and this game is expected to follow a similar pattern. Marcus Bontempelli and Adam Treloar are likely to play key roles in the Bulldogs’ midfield dominance. Although the Bulldogs have been inconsistent, the stakes of securing a finals spot should see them focused and determined to secure the win. North Melbourne’s vulnerabilities, particularly in defense, are likely to be exploited by the Bulldogs’ forward line, making a Bulldogs victory the most probable outcome.
3:20 PM
Hawthorn vs Richmond
Prediction: Hawthorn by 39.5 points.
Expanded Reasoning: Hawthorn has been one of the surprise packages late in the season, particularly after dismantling Carlton to secure a spot in the eight. Their aggressive playstyle, focusing on quick ball movement and scoring from the back half, has made them a formidable opponent. Richmond, in contrast, appears to have lost their way, with their season petering out without much fight. Hawthorn’s confidence is sky-high, and with the finals within reach, they are expected to bring their best against a Richmond side that has little to play for. The Hawks’ ability to apply pressure and their effective forward line, led by a group of small forwards, should see them dominate this game. Given Richmond’s recent form and Hawthorn’s upward trajectory, a comfortable win for the Hawks seems highly likely.
4:40 PM
West Coast vs Carlton
Prediction: Carlton by 1-10 points.
Expanded Reasoning: Carlton faces a must-win situation to keep their finals hopes alive, especially after their shocking loss to Hawthorn last week. The Blues will be under immense pressure to perform, but the trip to Perth might provide the break they need from the intense media scrutiny. West Coast, while clear of the wooden spoon, has little to lose and could play the role of spoiler. Carlton’s injury concerns, particularly with key players like Charlie Curnow, Adam Cerra, and Jack Martin, complicate their task, but their overall talent and motivation should see them through in a close contest. West Coast will be determined to make a statement, but Carlton’s need to respond after last week’s disaster should give them the edge in what is expected to be a tight and nervy affair.
