Last week was another very successful week of punting for the weekly punt after six of the eight line tips paying out. As was stated the week before, punters were getting very confused at this stage of the year. This has increased the weekly punt’s profit to over 50% for the YTD.
This week there is again some sought after value in the lines, mainly due to injuries. Punters tend to forget short term injuries, let alone long term injuries and it is one of the reasons the weekly punt knows when to pick the right side of the line. The confusion sets in and we will look to profit yet again with some head-to-head bets as well this week.
It is not unreasonable to think that Sydney at the SCG should start favourites against the Tigers. In fact most would think it is the only thing that makes sense. But what is seldom taken into consideration is the Swans having to travel back from Perth or the fact that Sydney has not beaten Richmond in over two years. But importantly the Tigers have a full team while the Swans are missing key players. Richmond is a force in 2013 and should win so put $50 on Richmond with Pinnacle at $4.06 and $200 on the Sportsbet line of +25.5 if it does not come up.
The last two weeks the Dogs have paid out on the line and their opponents this week West Coast have only done so five times this year – the least in the AFL. This game is now set up for Minson as Naitanui is out. Dogs will dominate the middle with Eagles lacking their good ball users. Centrebet will give you the best payouts this week for the Bulldogs so put $50 on the Bulldogs to get up at home at $3.70 and $200 on the +24.5 line for easy money.
There is one team each year which gets overrated by its supporters. Actually every team is overrated by its fans but one team has the most, Collingwood. Yet again this year they have beaten the betting lines the least in the AFL. Yes they are playing GWS this week but Collingwood had to travel back from QLD. The Pies are not travelling that well and GWS will make it a lot closer than the massive +86.5 line.
The Suns this year have won more than half their games at Metricon beating St Kilda, Bulldogs, North and Collingwood. Also with Ablett, Bennell and the addition of O’Meara this year, they look to be a real force through the midfield but that would be to undermine the emergence of stars like Rory Thompson and Aaron Hall. Make no reservations, the Suns have more talent the Blues and for that reason alone they should get up this week. Put $50 on the Suns with Pinnacle at $2.8 and $200 with Centrebet on the incorrect +14.5 line.
North may be flat-track bullies but they are best at it in the AFL. Their average winning margins is the best in the AFL and when you play a team like the injured Demons, then only one result is looming. North surprisingly are the third best in the AFL at beating betting lines and they should do so again for the tenth time this week. Take the -56.5 line with Pinnacle who will give you the best return at $1.98.
This is always interesting, Essendon who have currently the best win streak in the AFL currently start clear underdogs despite their last loss was back in round ten. Yes they are playing the premiership favourite Hawks, but the Hawks are injury riddled and not in the best form. The Bombers lead the AFL in beating the betting lines this year such is their underrated tag, so Betfair is currently offering the best odds at $3.4 H2H and Sportsbet will give you the best line at +19.5.
Sometimes all you need is a little bit of confidence to get you back up and Adelaide certainly should have that after beating Geelong. They travel to Perth to play Fremantle who last week struggled to win without their big guns. It looks like Freo’s key players will be out again this week so Adelaide looks good to beat the betting line for the third week in a row. Take the Crows on the +24.5 line this week with Pinnacle who will again give you the best odds at $1.935.
The Cats may have been poor last week but they will not be two weeks in a row. This is not about whether the Saints will be competitive in this match, when Geelong put their foot on the pedal none can match them. The full-throttle Cats should easily account for the -45.5 line this week with Sportsbet.
Current Betting Fund: $2,424.35
Total staked for 2013: $1,593.50
Sydney v Richmond–Handicap (+25.5) – $200 @ $1.91 Centrebet
Sydney v Richmond –H2H- $50 @ $4.06 Pinnacle
Western Bulldogs v Eagles– Handicap (+24.5) – $200 @ $1.91 Centrebet
Western Bulldogs v Eagles– H2H – $50 @ $3.70 Centrebet
Collingwood v GWS –Handicap (+86.5) – $200 @ $1.92 Sportsbet
Gold Coast v Carlton– Handicap (+14.5) – $200 @ $1.91 Centrebet
Gold Coast v Carlton– H2H – $50 @ $2.8 Pinnacle
Melbourne v North Melbourne–Handicap (-56.5) – $200 @ $1.98 Pinnacle
Essendon v Hawthorn– Handicap (+19.5) – $200 @ $1.92 Sportsbet
Essendon v Hawthorn – H2H – $50 @ $3.4 Betfair
Fremantle v Adelaide–Handicap (+24.5) – $200 @ $1.935 Pinnacle
Geelong v St Kilda – (-45.5) – $150 @ $1.92 Sportsbet
(Bet is on team in Bold)
Odds correct at time of posting
