most important rounds in 2019?

[bellie4pm]

new on here - just wanted to say thx for this forum, it rocks

interesting draw this season where there are relatively few games that are 50:50 at this stage - round 1 most probably the pick of them imho

so the question for you all is what are the two or three most important games for us to have any hope of finals?

need to win almost all optus games (whilst we are getting closer, think wc have the W for both derbies this season)

its the game against essendon at marvel that may define our season for me.

 

[basashi]

I see the games as fitting into three bands.

Your easiest 8 games
You basically have to win 7 or 8 of these to start thinking about finals.

Your middle 8 games
These are the ones that place you in or out of the 8. If you can win 5 or 6 of them, added to your easier wins, you should play finals.

Your hardest 6 games
These are the games that put you in or out of the top 4, provided you are winning the easier games.

It is pretty hard to determine the exact order of the games and plenty of them could be moved up or down. But I will try anyway...

Easiest 8 (in declining order)
R18: v Sydney (Optus Stadium), Sat July 20
R10: v Brisbane Lions (Optus Stadium), Sun May 26
R19: v Western Bulldogs (Marvel Stadium), Sun July 28
R3: v St Kilda (Optus Stadium), Sun April 7
R2: v Gold Coast (Metricon Stadium), Sun March 31
R6: v Western Bulldogs (Optus Stadium), Sat April 27
R1: v North Melbourne (Optus Stadium), Sun March 24
R15: v Carlton (Optus Stadium), Sun June 30

Heavily focused toward home games and obviously clubs that are tipped to be at the lower end of the ladder. Interestingly the first three games are in this group. We could go 3-0 and still not have indicated that we are headed for the 8. Losing games that fit in this bracket is a bad sign.

middle 8 games (in declining order)
R7: v Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), Sun May 5
R8: v Richmond (Optus Stadium), Sun May 12
R5: v GWS Giants (UNSW Canberra), Sat April 20
R23: v Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), TBC
R20: v Geelong (Optus Stadium), Sat Aug 3
R21: v St Kilda (Marvel Stadium), Sun Aug 11
R22: v Essendon (Optus Stadium), Sat Aug 17
R13: v Port Adelaide (Optus Stadium), Sat June 15

Again, really hard to predict. If these are the 8 games that dictate whether or not we sneak into the 8 then rounds 20, 21, 22 and 23 are the crunch time.

The 6 Hardest games (in declining order)
R11: v Collingwood (MCG), Sat June 1
R14: v Melbourne (MCG), Sat June 22
R17: v Hawthorn (UTAS Stadium), Sat July 13
R4: v West Coast (Optus Stadium), Sat April 13
R16: v West Coast (Optus Stadium), Sat July 6
R9: v Essendon (Marvel Stadium), Sun May 18

Not seeming to be that relevant to our 2019 campaign but these games determine your top 4 chances if you are winning the easier games.

My honest tip for the year is to win about 6 or 7 from the bottom group, 3 or maybe 4 from the middle group and at a long shot, jag one of the derbies. About 11 wins.

So to finally answer the OP.... I would say that if we are finishing in the 8 it is most likely going to require winning at least some of the Round 20 to 23 games.