- Banned
- #26
Anti-you dumped Beasley- sentiment.
AWA sentiment
The '' we never had it so good '' mentality
And a State Gov ,that even with an inept Liberal Gov, is on the nose due to its own failings and not any inroads made by the LIbs
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Election predictions
- Thread starter CharlieG
- Start date
- Tagged users None
Anti-you dumped Beasley- sentiment.
AWA sentiment
The '' we never had it so good '' mentality
And a State Gov ,that even with an inept Liberal Gov, is on the nose due to its own failings and not any inroads made by the LIbs
- Thread starter
- #27
I know that you're only interested in negative news about the ALP at present, but isn't it a sign of how well the ALP is doing nationally that they are looking at a moderate swing of several per cent in WA, and they are considered to be doing poorly?
Just curious - whatever the eventual result, different swings in states is interesting.
But re "negative news" I don't believe in the positive news re polls and I'm watching for a return to a more realistic depiction of real voting intentions on election day.
I can't speak for the other seats, but I have it fairly reliably that Paul Armstrong has instructed his staff to restrict their polling to the northwestern area of Stirling, which has historically swung conservative regardless of who is in power, whilst ignoring the east and south who tend to be ALP or Greens/Democrats/Independent.
Make of that what you will.
- Thread starter
- #30
Yes, but you're going further than that. You're posting any and every opinion piece you find that criticises Labor or tries to explain why, in spite of all the evidence, they're really doing terribly after all (even sinking to the depths of Janet Albrechtson). You're also seeking to explain away anything even remotely positive whilst seizing on any poll that has a glimmer of good news for the government. It appears that one Galaxy poll that still has Labor in a winning position has more credibility as far as you're concerned than 35 that show Labor in a commanding position. You've gotten to the point where I'm sincerely wondering whether you'll be delighted or devastated if the ALP wins on election night.
I know your views and you're certainly entitled to them, but just perhaps you're ramming them down our throats just a little too much?
- Thread starter
- #31
How reliable? If you have a source that you trust, you need to refer them to Media Watch. They can't be allowed to get away with stuff like that.
Its seems fine to post as much negativity about the current government. Strange.
I think Skip sums it up
As I've posted before, I've got the shits with the extreme bias of this board.
I also think that most here are clueless as to the real state and the psyche of the Aust electorate.
As to election night, whatever the result I'll have nothing to celebrate. Neither side deserve to be elected.
- Thread starter
- #34
I don't mind negative posts about the ALP. What I'd like is something different. We all know that Dry Rot thinks that half the front bench are arseclowns and Australians will vote according to their hip pockets. How many times do we need to read the same thing?
Oh, and DR - 'extreme bias' is a little over the top, isn't it? Why don't you address one of the points I raised. Why are one Galaxy poll and a survey of three marginal seats by Westpoll necessarily more credible than the other 35 national polls that have been conducted this year?
Fine - trust you'll point same out to lefty posters who endlessly point out that Howard lies, we shouldn't be in Iraq, the Mad Monk is well a mad monk and everything else bad we already know about Howard's lot and which is endlessly posted here.
Check out posts and threads generally - the Politics board is hardly neutral or objective is it?
It partially evens up what is generally a one sided affair.
Like Charlie said, how reliable?
In recent years the Australian has been guilty of 'spinning' poor poll results for the Coalition. But for a newspaper to deliberately interfere in the polling itself really would be another step altogether.
For any polling outfit to be so docile, to so throw their professionalism away like this, would be, well, quite shocking.
For what it's worth, here's last election's results in Stirling (thanks pollbludger)
- Thread starter
- #38
The difference is that I ignore them, whereas I respect your views (I just don't need to read them 30 times
).I don't believe that objectivity is possible, but a 'neutral' politics board would be rather boring.
I'm not suggesting everyone be neutral, but there's almost a Stalinist orthodoxy about this board which in the end makes it pretty boring.
- Thread starter
- #40
Unless you're talking about Bombers 2003, that's ridiculously over the top.
evo
Let's hit the f*ken road!
Charlie,can I reccomend to you to put 'rodent' with reference to the Libs into the Bigfooty search function.See how many returns it gives you.
Then put in 'arseclown' with reference to the ALP
I think you'll find the ratio satisfactory.
Edit :Isaved you the trouble. 'rodent' returned 385 threads,Arseclown 34.(and not many were even refering to ALP but rather ; russel crowe,bono,hilaly and just maybe . )
I don't think you have much to worry about.
Then put in 'arseclown' with reference to the ALP
I think you'll find the ratio satisfactory.
Edit :Isaved you the trouble. 'rodent' returned 385 threads,Arseclown 34.(and not many were even refering to ALP but rather ; russel crowe,bono,hilaly and just maybe .
)I don't think you have much to worry about.
- Banned
- #42
For what it's worth, here's last election's results in Stirling (thanks pollbludger)
Nice map
I will try an eco-socionomic analysis of the areas...MR Q can correct any misinterpretations
On the right hand side of the map
Mirabobooka 65 Red is a mixture of poor social welfare sections as is Balga next door. But Mirabooka also has pockets of middle class areas
Westminster under Balga is actually Balga renamed after the freeway cut the suburb in sections
Dianella and Yokine is $$$$$$ Nollamarra like Mirabooka is a mixture of poor to middle class
Crossing Waneroo Rd we have Hamersley at the top which is newly high middle class... I expect a lot of older owners live there and new miners looking for a quieter suburb
Balcatta and Stirling is a mixture of Italianate areas and high poor to middle class pockets. Tuart Hill is still a mixture as well along with Osborne Pk but Ossie Pk is highly industrialised and not many people live there
Crossing the freeway is like crossing a great divide and it shows with the blue.
Money talks in these areas and they are indistinguishable from each other apart from the fact it takes money to buy property there ie Doubleview would be $750,000 to $900,000 to buy a house
Hope this helps
I'll finalise my seat-by-seat predictions closer to the election.
But as of now, I think Labor will almost surely pick up (in rough descending order of certainty): Kingston, Bonner, Parramatta, Braddon, Wakefield, Solomon, Moreton, Bass, Makin and Lindsay.
10 down. 6 to go.
Not so sure about what's happening in Bracksland Dave?
Way over the top? See any thread on colonialism, third world debt, IR, religion (though Christianity only and the Micks in particular) and I dont think its too far off the mark.
Do a search on articles and it would be interesting to see the ratio of Fairfax/ABC vs News Corp.
jimmy.h
Club Legend
Universally attacking anyone who's centre or right of centre, regardless of the merits of their argument, may well be.
FWIW:
New poll results show the Federal Government in trouble in Tasmania.
An EMRS poll released today shows the Liberals are trailing Labor 35% to 65% in the northern seat of Bass, on a two-party basis.
The Launceston seat is the proposed site for a controversial new pulp mill, and is renowned as a swinging marginal seat.
The Government's outlook is also bleak in the north-west seat of Braddon, where Labor leads 64% to 36% on two-party preferred.
Those results would give all five Tasmanian seats to Labor, by a comfortable margin.
New poll results show the Federal Government in trouble in Tasmania.
An EMRS poll released today shows the Liberals are trailing Labor 35% to 65% in the northern seat of Bass, on a two-party basis.
The Launceston seat is the proposed site for a controversial new pulp mill, and is renowned as a swinging marginal seat.
The Government's outlook is also bleak in the north-west seat of Braddon, where Labor leads 64% to 36% on two-party preferred.
Those results would give all five Tasmanian seats to Labor, by a comfortable margin.
jimmy.h
Club Legend
No, it's really not.
Pretty reasonable. Only a few things - the western section has always had a north-south divide, with Innaloo and Scarborough quite happy to be very marginal areas (go have a look at how the different parties want to divide this area up in the next state redistribution - the Libs want to minimise the impact of these areas, Labor wants to maximise it). The more northerly areas (Carine/Trigg/North Beach) are Liberal heartland
Yokine is a traditional Labor area, but it's also Michael Keenan's home territory, which might be worth something to the Libs - though I'd actually say a lot of the area where he'd have name recognition is actually in Perth rather than Stirling (around Menora/Coolbinia/Mt Lawley). That said, I'd stand to be corrected on that.
This is a seat which really shows up the state/federal differences - all the seats east of the freeway are Labor held at more than 8%, and indeed the most marginal from recollection in the area is Liberal held Carine (at about 6%) which covers most of the western area, and was made much more marginal when it got tacked with lots of Innaloo at the last election. Then again, the Coalition doesn't hold a single state seat in the area of Cowan...
