Simon Black Brownlow Watch

As we all know, every year S.Black is our best chance at the Brownlow. It has come to my attention that a number of us have invested some coin on the lad again this year. I backed him before Round 1 at $41 each way ($11 the place), am happy with that bet.

So, how many votes has he gotten thus far, after Round 15? Below is my attempt to estimate what he's on, feel free to add your own thoughts, opinions etc.

R1 – didn’t play
R2 – loss Carlton, 28 poss, possibly 1 vote
R3 – win Sydney, 16 poss, probably 0
R4 – loss Coll, 25 poss, probably 0 but possibly 1
R5 – Geelong….
R6 – win Essendon, 24 poss, 1 vote, perhaps 2?
R7 – win Richmond, 24 poss, played well, 2 votes poss 3 (power/brown others)
R8 – win Adelaide, 28 poss, Sherman played well, so did Blacky, 1 or 2 votes?
R9 – loss STK, 27 poss, small loss so may get votes, Drummond was v.good for us, 1 max you’d think
R10 – win North, 23 poss but not his best day, 1 max I’d have thought
R11 – loss Carlton only 1 goal, Black was our best, should get at least 1, possibly 2
R12 – win Hawthorn, 29 poss, played well but Power dominant, 1 vote 2 max
R13 – win Melbourne, 29 touches, was in our best two with Power. 2 or 3 votes
R14 – loss Port, tagged well, 0 votes
R15 – win Geelong, definitely in best 3, IMO BOG but at least 2 votes, possibly 3

There, that’s my (perhaps biased) assessment of his year to date. If you tally up the negatives and positives (ie minimums and maximums) you get –

MIN – 10 votes (handy minimum… perhaps I am biased!)
MAX – 21 votes

Firstly, LOL at the 21 votes… no way he’ll be on that. That was absolute best case scenario. Going on what I think he’d have gotten in each game, averaging things a bit, I have him at being around 14 votes. In cases where I said “2 or 3 votes” I’ve given him 2.5, 0 and 1 I’ve given him 0.5, to see if things level out over the course of my predictions.

If he is on 14 votes, then he’s in a good spot. Ablett has missed a couple of games and won’t have polled in them all anyway, Blacky probably wouldn’t be leading if he were on 14 votes but he wouldn’t be far off. I’d be surprised if Judd were on any more than 14-16 max, and Ablett I wouldn’t think any more than that either. To be honest, Blacky could be right with them.

But, that’s just MY OPINION, and I could be way off, so post your own thoughts, would be very interested in other’s thoughts of not only where Blacky is, but his rivals in blokes like Ablett, Judd, Swan etc.

I got my money on him before the season started too, so I hope you are on the mark!

I have him around the 17-22 mark, heres my rundown (very similar)

4) 1 vote
6)2 (Brown BOG)
7) 3 votes
8)2 (sherman BOG)
9)1
10) 2 or 3 up against Rich (Black changed the game after h-t)
11)2
12 2 (Brown 3)
13) 3
15)3

Hard to write him off ever the way he polls, love him to bits as a player, head and shoulders above the rest IMO.

Sadly though i think Dane Swan is a massive showing to win it along with didak and pendiddles as smokeys as much as it pains me to say it.

Not sure on Judd either, although we know when he is up and about he generally collects votes like a whale feeding on plankton i think Gibbs and fev may have stolen a few votes from him this year.

I am yet to have a flutter on the brownlow yet but it is hard not to put at least $5 on simon no matter how good anyone else has played.

Roos34 said:

10) 2 or 3 up against Rich (Black changed the game after h-t)

Click to expand...

Actually you're right there, I forgot about his 2nd half. I was at that game but was pretty pissed come half time, had met up with an old mate hours earlier... - he did have a dominant 2nd half, didn't he. More votes!

Roos34 said:

I have him around the 17-22 mark, heres my rundown (very similar)

Click to expand...

BTW - if you're right, and he's on 17-22 now, then only injury would stop him winning the Brownlow you'd think, ESP if he were on the high side of that range... hope you're right.

How accurate are your predictions of Round by Round totals usually, ie the last few years?

Black will rack up heaps of votes in the back end of this year. Hes really starting to find form (imagine if he had a full preseason, clear brownlow winner). The umpires have a man crush on Blacky anyway ( so expect him to get some unexpected votes)

well last year i thought he was robbed and should of won it. He should of polled the one in the loss to blues at home, have no idea how he didn't poll in the dogs win at home. I had him around the 28 mark last year, in the rundown up at the halfway mark I had around the 22 vote range, I'm pretty sure he was 21. Not many posters seem to have him high up but which is very strange. I think he has been Lions best player this year

He's definitely been our best player this year. Brownie has been great, too, but Blacky - being a mid - just has more influence on the game, because he's always in it.

Blacky is the kind of bloke who is ALWAYS over the odds in Brownlow betting, because the cycloptic Melbourne media can't see him.

Jeez, just checked the odds... our man is into $13 with the TAB now! Now I am VERY happy with my $41 and $11 the place!

Always worth chucking a little on Black during the preseason - underrated due to non-victorian, and always polls well.

RICH, D (BRIS) 601.00 151.00 Bet

that's so easily worth a 10'er each way

oh wait, black. yeah, 10'er each way as insurance

Dutch Wink said:

RICH, D (BRIS) 601.00 151.00 Bet

that's so easily worth a 10'er each way

oh wait, black. yeah, 10'er each way as insurance

Click to expand...

Our boy D.Rich won't poll many votes. At least, he won't to this point, I can't speak for the last 7 rounds. He will get votes for the game against Geelong on the weekend, but the issue with earlier games is although he played well, he often didn't get a great deal of the ball. There was one game (Hawthorn, I think?) where he only had 12 posessions but scored something like 110 DT points, he never made a mistake and did some wonderful things, but he's not going to poll with only 12 touches. He hasn't had big "numbers" earlier in the year, as he wasn't thrown into the deepend like Blacky is each week, because Rich is a first yearer. He's a moral for the R.Star (the Rich Star) but he won't poll many votes before Round 15. I'd be surprised if he had more than 5 votes prior to the Geelong game.

He is one of the most underrated brownlow contenders going around. Came out of no where last year and I believe he should of won it probably equalled with cooney if it wasn't for that game against Carlton. If we won he would of won it, but because we lost he didn't get any votes. he was outstanding all night and im not sure how he went for the last quater.

Perhaps 1 vote for Blacky tonight against Freo...?

Rich and Brown were probably our best 2. Blacky got plenty of it but didn't use it very well... perhaps Black 1, Rich 2, Brown 3? That is, assuming no Dockers get votes? On their 2nd half form they don't really deserve any votes... Duffield was v.good for them in the first half.

Blacky was well tagged out 2nite by young Deboer. Black still had 21 possies, his use wasn't that well 38% some poster said. Having said that, he still was at the front of the packs and had 14 tackles and around 12 contested possies. He may poll one, very doubtful. Most probably will go to patfull, clark, duffield but the Umps have given votes like this to Black before.

Patfull a very good night. Mitch Clarke did very well too actually, won a heap of hitouts in that 2nd half, when on the park. Duffield's 2nd half prob costs him. Am a fan of Duffield, though... he's been great for my SC team.

Roos34 said:

Blacky was well tagged out 2nite by young Deboer. Black still had 21 possies, his use wasn't that well 38% some poster said. Having said that, he still was at the front of the packs and had 14 tackles and around 12 contested possies. He may poll one, very doubtful. Most probably will go to patfull, clark, duffield but the Umps have given votes like this to Black before.

Click to expand...

0...nil...zilch votes for Simon tonight.

Some terrible turnovers.

Would be absolutely amazed if he polls Brownlow votes.

Likely IMHO

3. Rich
2.Duffield
1.Clark.

Roos34 said:

He may poll one, very doubtful. Most probably will go to patfull, clark, duffield but the Umps have given votes like this to Black before.

Click to expand...

Duritz said:

Patfull a very good night. Mitch Clarke did very well too actually, won a heap of hitouts in that 2nd half, when on the park. Duffield's 2nd half prob costs him. Am a fan of Duffield, though... he's been great for my SC team.

Click to expand...

You mean Patfull might poll a vote in the midfielders medal!??

And sorry Duritz, I may be a bit petty, but can you please drop the e from the end of Mitch's surname..

Chat soon re the Pies game and catching up at some stage..

FFB1 said:

And sorry Duritz, I may be a bit petty, but can you please drop the e from the end of Mitch's surname..

Click to expand...

Ah yeah the "e"... I do get my Clarke and Clark's confused, especially with a couple of them in the national limelight.

Hi folks...just came across the thread. Like a few others I backed S Black earlier in the season E/W...at ridiculously large odds so I've been watching his form closely all year.

I think he's sort of been good all year but hasn't really stood out in many games...I'd really love to see him have just one or two clear 3 point games before the end of the year. Lions have had a lot more contributors this year, Rich of course, Power consistent again...and Brennan will have received votes on more than one occasion.

The upside is that he is just one of those players that get votes from umpires as a rule. Also, having won more games as a team can't hurt your chances too much.

I doubt he's really a winning chance, but I think he's going well enough for a finish somewhere between 2nd and 5th.

Cheers.

Gary Flogbat Jnr is very likely to miss this weekend against Hawthorn. That will be the 4th game he has missed this season. No player has won the Brownlow while missing 4 or more games since 1932.

Duritz said:

Gary Flogbat Jnr is very likely to miss this weekend against Hawthorn. That will be the 4th game he has missed this season. No player has won the Brownlow while missing 4 or more games since 1932.

Click to expand...

He wants that Brownlow so badly too. I seriously think he'd trade his premiership medal for it.

TheBrownDog said:

He wants that Brownlow so badly too. I seriously think he'd trade his premiership medal for it.

Click to expand...

That's why he will never win one.

i agree with all of you people, but i think he deserved to win it more Adam Cooney did last year.. and yer if he did have a pre-season outright favourite for the brownlow

Cooney was a joke last year. Should have been Richo. That would have been fantastic.