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The Golden Rules - discussion thread

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Beau_Waters for PM

Premiership Player
Apr 28, 2007
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1,819
AFL Club
West Coast
Over the preseason, the No Passengers put our heads together and came up with a summary of what we believed to be the most important rules to use as a guide when selecting your initial squad.

This thread is designed to be used to discuss said rules. We want your thoughts. Do you agree? Why? Have you inadvertently used one or more of these rules when choosing your team previously? Or do you disagree with some of the rules? Why? The floor is open, we want your comments. :)

**Note** This is not the place to ask for player-specific advice. Please take such questions to another thread.

No Passengers said:
THE GOLDEN RULES

1) Work out your primary strategy for the team. Will you go for a guns/rookies approach, or a midpriced approach? Draft a minimum number of keepers (players you want to have in your squad at the end of the season) depending on your selected strategy. For a guns/rookies team, you’ll need to have 15-17 keepers in your initial squad. For a midpriced team, you’ll need to start with at least 10-12 keepers; any less than that, and you won’t have enough trades to get the rest of your keepers in. Remember there is a correlation between the number of keepers in your team and the number of trades required to make a “keeper”; a rookie will require 1.5 to 2 trades per upgrade, a midpriced player may only require one.

2) If a keeper can be picked up somewhere else other than the midfield – do it. There are fewer premium options in the backs, rucks, and forwards (ie a player named as both a MID and a FWD for example will probably outscore more players in the FWD range than the MID range). Note that this may not always be the case for rookies.

3) Aim to draft a pool of about 3 or 4 players that you would comfortable assigning the Captaincy to, and rotate them dependent on who they’re playing, weather and the impact of taggers on them. Consider getting two solid options and a couple who could be other options depending on current or previous form… but remember, form is temporary, but class is permanent.

4) Look for players who are proven scorers, missed most of the previous season and are therefore undervalued (known as the Lappin rule in 2007 and the Stevens Rule in 2008). Before drafting them however, look for reasons why they missed the previous season; was it being dropped for loss of form, injury or a new role? If it was injury, was it a contact injury or a potentially recurring (ie hamstring) soft tissue injury?

5) You don’t have to be the most expensive player in a position to be considered a keeper – often the best keepers are those players on the verge of becoming premiums within the position. As a result, the description of a player as a keeper is highly subjective. Note also that a BAC keeper should be expected to score less than a keeper in the MID position, and you need to set your sights on acceptable scores to define “keeper” status accordingly.

6) Select rookies that are likely to string games together – the best way to do this is look for a rookie who fits an obvious hole in a teams best 22. They may cost more, but look at the top draft picks of the previous year (particularly midfielders; KPP rookies tend to score less on average). Clubs who are restructuring/rebuilding also tend to give greater opportunities to rookies. The pre-season can be a good guide, but is not always indicative – look to check the rookie isn’t just filling in a spot in the best 22 for a regular player. Also consider mature age or delisted players who have been picked up to fill an obvious need –clubs seldom fill a development spot on the list with a player they don’t intend to play.

7) Don’t underestimate the value of durability. Having a big name scoring you 100+ points every time they play is only useful if they actually play. When selecting keepers, you should focus on a player’s ability to score total points rather than their average. If you do draft players with a questionable durability record, be sure to have some very handy bench players. Oh, and no excuses - everyone cops injuries, but you can maximise your chances of avoiding them by choosing durable players.

8) Enter and/or tweak your DT earlier than the afternoon it closes. The bigger the competition becomes, the more likely it is that you won’t get to make edits. Don’t let your planning go to waste – get in early and enter your team. Don’t stress about one rookie not being named in Rd1 if you’re confident he’ll get games early.

9) Draft for opportunity. Look at opportunities (or problems if it will likely change a players expected role) that might arise from retirements or LTI’s. Consider high draft picks from previous seasons yet to debut, players who possibly came back too early from injury late in the previous season or players who finished strongly in the back half of the year with a new role or increased TOG.

10) Trust your gut. Just because a player is hugely hyped by BF posters doesn’t mean they’re the second coming. If you think you know better, trust your instinct and do your own thing. Once you own the decision, it will empower you. If your gut is true, congrats and good job! If your gut gave you a bad steer, learn from your mistakes. What happened to Player X you thought was a sure thing? Were they hampered by a role change or limited TOG? Learn from it, and try not to make the same mistakes next season!
 
Just on number 8...

8) Enter and/or tweak your DT earlier than the afternoon it closes. The bigger the competition becomes, the more likely it is that you won’t get to make edits. Don’t let your planning go to waste – get in early and enter your team. Don’t stress about one rookie not being named in Rd1 if you’re confident he’ll get games early.

I think I remember reading on BigFooty that because of the new system that has been implemented, people won't be having their teams wiped. Can someone clarify this?
 
Agree with the majority of the points raised, but the 1st rule I question.

When it comes to picking your initial squad, you have to be flexible and plan your team around the value picks and your 'must haves'. It may be say Skipworth in the forwards, so you'd plan your team around him accordingly and just try and fit as many keepers as you can as you would. It's good to have a rough strategy in mind, but really, once you get the value picks & 'must haves' your strategy is bound to change a little. You may want say a rookie/gun strategy, but because of the bargains on offer mid-range you suddenly find yourself having to balance the team out and that's when your strategy goes out the window in some respect.
 

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Agree with the majority of the points raised, but the 1st rule I question.

When it comes to picking your initial squad, you have to be flexible and plan your team around the value picks and your 'must haves'. It may be say Skipworth in the forwards, so you'd plan your team around him accordingly and just try and fit as many keepers as you can as you would. It's good to have a rough strategy in mind, but really, once you get the value picks & 'must haves' your strategy is bound to change a little. You may want say a rookie/gun strategy, but because of the bargains on offer mid-range you suddenly find yourself having to balance the team out and that's when your strategy goes out the window in some respect.


Yeah i agree with GT.

I went in with a gun/rookie strategy but found when i added my must haves initially i found my team was alot more balanced by going a more mid price strategy. I didnt want it but found that i couldnt utilise the bargain picks with a premium/rookie style team. I dont have the ABC midfield or the hodges/Scotland backline but am comfortable that i have filled my team with enough keepers to keep me competetive till the trading really kicks in.

I'm also sceptical about spending the money early on in regards to high priced guns. My theory is that i would like to sit back and see what roles players are looking at and who's firing and who's not in the H&A season and then target these players when the time is right. You can get plenty of 'Keepers' into your team using this method IMO, they may end up being my 4th 5th 6th mids or respective positions but a keeper is a keeper.
 
The team I have developed at the moment would be a combination of rookie/gun and mid-priced players, probably leaning more towards gun/rookie. Here is a breakdown of my team:

Backs
2 premiums
2 potential premiums
3 mid priced

Centres
2 premiums
2 potential premiums
2 rookies

Rucks
2 premiums

Forwards
3 premiums
1 potential premium
2 mid priced
1 rookie

I haven't totally adhered to either structure but I have identified where I believe rookies can have an impact. I believe there are some players in the backs undervalued who will play and score consistently as opposed to the back rookies, which seem like a bit more of a gamble at this stage. I don't think the value in some of these backs can be ignored.

There is also a bit of value around in the forwards this year, but there is also some guns I don't think that can be ignored either. I could easily pick another rookie to play in the forwards, but that would mean that I would have to ignore the value.

So I'd probably agree with GS to some extent, you should pick your team around what you believe are the valule picks and the must have premiums.
 
Yeah i agree with GT.

I went in with a gun/rookie strategy but found when i added my must haves initially i found my team was alot more balanced by going a more mid price strategy. I didnt want it but found that i couldnt utilise the bargain picks with a premium/rookie style team. I dont have the ABC midfield or the hodges/Scotland backline but am comfortable that i have filled my team with enough keepers to keep me competetive till the trading really kicks in.

I'm also sceptical about spending the money early on in regards to high priced guns. My theory is that i would like to sit back and see what roles players are looking at and who's firing and who's not in the H&A season and then target these players when the time is right. You can get plenty of 'Keepers' into your team using this method IMO, they may end up being my 4th 5th 6th mids or respective positions but a keeper is a keeper.[/quote]

But theres a difference between a Keeper and a Premium.
 
I went in with a gun/rookie strategy but found when i added my must haves initially i found my team was alot more balanced by going a more mid price strategy. I didnt want it but found that i couldnt utilise the bargain picks with a premium/rookie style team.

I'm also sceptical about spending the money early on in regards to high priced guns. My theory is that i would like to sit back and see what roles players are looking at and who's firing and who's not in the H&A season and then target these players when the time is right.

This is a great post on many levels and it highlights a great point with regards to strategy.

The concept of selecting players that show value and designing a strategy that suits those players. There will be a core bunch of players that in your eyes provide great value, these players are the foundation of your team. I think where the strategy starts to appear is how you plan to use your cash cows and the borderline value players.

Some people feel that starting rookies in your 22 provides an element of risk they're not willing to take, so they fill their remaining spots with value picks which might be slightly cheaper. Another person may be willing to risk starting a rookie and this then allows them to have a combination of rookies and slightly more expensive value picks.

This is when the true strategy is apparent, where are you willing to take the risks?

Currently I am placing faith in starting a rookie, there are risks associated, but I am willing to accept those risks. In saying that, while it has taken me a while to wrap my head around NOT starting a rookie, I see the benefits of this strategy.
The idea of having people like Rich, Hill, Ballantyne, Gumbleton.... sitting on my bench, instead of in my starting 22, is attractive. It also helps reduce the stress of your whole structure be potentially ruined by Rich NOT being named before round 1 lockout.
Can you log on quick enough to make a change? do you then make a paniced change?

Once you feel comfortable with your strategy, however you came about this, it is then important to then understand how this will affect your trading patterns. I feel your initial team should be linked to your trading.

Everyone at one point has broken a "Golden Rule" but it is always good to keep a little discipline.
 
good topic.


I also go by these rules:

1) dont have too many players of the 1 team in your squad. If you are going for 3+ of the one team, ensure they are playing different positions for their club (even if they are in the same position in your team). So for example, if i have a few guys from the 1 squad, i ensure 1 is a defender, 1 a mid, 1 a forward.


2) Have the end in mind. Your starting squad is not going to be perfect initially...but if it enables you to upgrade to the stars then it is in good shape. People often say....that guy is not going to play 22...or is not going to average more than 60. I don't care if his price build 50K by round 6 and i can offload him to a premium who has dropped 60K.

I also write down the final team i want to finish with...and keep that in mind when selecting my initial squad. Whatever strategy i feel will get me to my dream side as soon as possible is how i build my squad.



3) Be cautious with 2nd year players. This is just me, but its a principle i stick to. Many this year will take the punt on Myers, Masten, Dalziell etc. I say good on you for taking the punt. I just am not willing.



4) Never pick a guy who was a bargain the year before and is now worth a lot. Troy Simmonds/Nick Stevens principle this year. The reason i say this is that the previous year they come across better than they actually were because they were such a bargain. Now that they are up at the premium price, there are probably more durable and better options at the same range.

And of course there are the new bargains.




These are just my superstitions really but they have held me in good stead.
 
With regards to your point 4 - Nick Stevens is definately someone I would avoid, but Simmonds? His only competition is Petrie, Hille and Sandilands. Of those 4, Simmonds is the one I would trust the most.

I would agree with pretty much all the other advice in this thread though. Having an end team in mind is critical. My only other golden rule regards the rucks - lock and leave. I would rather pay a bit extra cash to have Cox + premium this year. Last year you could gamble on Simmonds fitness, as most had either Leuenburger or Kruezer as a decent back up. This year there are fewer bench options and most are going for an 86k player as third ruck. If HMac or Ottens go down, its a wasted trade (possibly two). Not worth the risk IMO.
 
Some good additions there Dave86.

I actually try to not restrict my thinking with too many rules, particularly with regard to structure. I would never adhere to a rule as to how many premiums or roookies etc. When your side takes shape it takes shape and I wouldn't adjust it to meet some arbitrary standard.

I don't necessarily agree with the rule about always choose a player who is a mid/other in the other position - unless that person is a keeper. As someone mentioned when it comes to structure you might have to put them in as a mid. If you are looking to upgrade anyway what's the difference.

2nd year players - sort of agree, depends on the player. really good players break this rule such as a Gibbs or Luke Ball type. But I agree there is an element of risk as the opposition may pay a bit more attention.

I'm considering going with no. 2 of your as well this year, even though I never have before, apart from a broad idea.

No. 4 I don't understand really - the psychology of DT partly. Their price last year has no bearing whatsoever on their performance this year, and has been something which has boggled my mind over the years. That said it is a superstition I tend to stick with as well, and for some reason like you say it normally works out. I think it is just a value concept where you can look for guys in the bracket like you say who have a 10% improvement possibly. Hard to ignore someone like Simmonds because he was "too good value" last year.

Also a worthwhile exercise is to sit down and construct a team from only Richmond St Kilda and Geelong players. You can come up with a reasonable team - some weeks it would be down some up but overall I don't think it matters how many from the one team unless you are purely concerned with a league win.
 
But theres a difference between a Keeper and a Premium.

I completely agree, and this is something i struggle with.

Is it better to have 12 keepers who are of high quality like hodge, fisher, goddard, ablett, swan, pavlich, deledio and a few others, or is it better o have 14 keepers who are lesser quality like birchall, newman, gram, gibbs, tuck, stanton, sylvia, davis?

With the team with 12 better quality keepers, i think there is more chance of finishing with the perfect team - also have more captain options early. However, with the 14 keeper teams, you probably score more early, but will end up with birchall/gram/davis in final team perhaps in comparison to the top teams having chad/newman/enright/J. Brown for example.

Are we aiming to high when expecting to have a final midfield of Ablett, Bartel, Corey, Swan, Thompson, Kane? Looking at last years Top 5 final teams, i think the answer is no, this is not aiming to high, and that it is in fact possible. But does it even matter?

Look at convicts final mids:

Bartel (113), Corey (109), Stanton (93), Stevens (90), Kane (99), Cross (96)

No ablett, No Swan, and two players on the lower end of the keepers range (stanton and stevens).

But compare this to baxters:

Bartel (113), Corey (109), Swan (103), Ablett (112), Kane (99), Cross (96)

Very very high scoring final mids.

This, to me, shows that you can rank highly either way (starting and finishing with top end keepers, and lower end keepers).

Hope i got my point across ok...
 
Everyone at one point has broken a "Golden Rule" but it is always good to keep a little discipline.

Interesting point. Looking back at my trades last year, some of my better ones did not obey the Golden Rules, which I normally aim to adhere to. For example I saw the writing on the wall early and did a sideways trade before Rd3 getting in Murphy for N. Jones. Could have backfired but luckily worked well. Would have been nice not to make the selection mistake in the first place but nobody gets them all right.

Another one I broke was towards season's end when I traded out an injured player who was going to miss only a couple of rounds for a bottomed out gun. Normally, having a reasonable bench player I would have saved one of my few remaining trades for LTIs come DT finals time. My decision however was based on getting through elminator which I was doing quite well in. I had decided I was too far away to challenge top 10 or 20 and was sitting comfortably in my league. Again, not something I would have ideally done but gave me a better shot at the eliminator.

I personally think this highlights that a slightly different trading method can be applied depending on your aim. Overall ranking compared to league compared to eliminator.

The other rule I believe strongly in is described above as not necessarily milking every cent out of a cash cow and looking at Break Evens. I look at it as being opportunistic and somewhat adaptable - consistently reassess your plans and goals. Remember the aim is to score points - The 100 Riewoldt scores when you get him in earlier (compared to the 50 of your plateauing rookie) can add up to a significantly higher ranking come season's end.

Also, leave sentiment at the door. Be objective. Think of players as numbers and then combine this with what you understand of footy. For example as a Crows supporter I often cringe when Chris Knights makes one of his turnovers or sloppy disposals but you can't argue with his possessions and how many points per minute he scores.

This is long enough - good work on putting it all together lads.
 

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For example as a Crows supporter I often cringe when Chris Knights makes one of his turnovers or sloppy disposals but you can't argue with his possessions and how many points per minute he scores.

Nice post Captain Jim, this just reminded me of Darcy and is commentry of the game, I swear he kept on saying how Knights had great disposal. I kept thinking, I am sure the Adelaide people call him Clanger Knights.

He does rack up the possessions that is for sure.
 
On the Knights point, I think that's the biggest fault that new DT players encounter, is picking players based solely on AFL ability. This ranges from picking Darren Glass to players that are suited more to SC, such as Chris Judd. I personally don't even worry about the quality of a player's disposal, unless they are borderline best 22 and may have another player favoured over them due to a superior disposal.
 
Some good additions there Dave86.

I actually try to not restrict my thinking with too many rules, particularly with regard to structure. I would never adhere to a rule as to how many premiums or roookies etc. When your side takes shape it takes shape and I wouldn't adjust it to meet some arbitrary standard.

I don't necessarily agree with the rule about always choose a player who is a mid/other in the other position - unless that person is a keeper. As someone mentioned when it comes to structure you might have to put them in as a mid. If you are looking to upgrade anyway what's the difference.

.

SD, couldnt agree more with this post. Rules are handy in providing guidelines and assistance but when selecting a side i would never think oh, he's a forward and a centre so i MUST put him as a forward. I would certainly lean towards the non-centre option but circumstances could lead the dual position player to end up in the Centre position.

Actually this year i'm very close to breaking this rule!!:eek:

I agree with all the rules in isolation but as a collective i think you could break one or two and still justify it. All depends on how you have structured your side and spreading value and risk over all 4 positions.
 
SD, couldnt agree more with this post. Rules are handy in providing guidelines and assistance but when selecting a side i would never think oh, he's a forward and a centre so i MUST put him as a forward. I would certainly lean towards the non-centre option but circumstances could lead the dual position player to end up in the Centre position.

Actually this year i'm very close to breaking this rule!!:eek:

I agree with all the rules in isolation but as a collective i think you could break one or two and still justify it. All depends on how you have structured your side and spreading value and risk over all 4 positions.


Higgins, Sidebottom, Ziebell or Skipworth Matt?
 
Higgins, Sidebottom, Ziebell or Skipworth Matt?

NTT - Like the OP said i dont want to take the thread off track by talking about specific players.

Suffice to say that rule 2 (the said rule with a chance of being broken) really relates to keepers which i wouldnt classify any of your listed players as.
 

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NTT - Like the OP said i dont want to take the thread off track by talking about specific players.

Suffice to say that rule 2 (the said rule with a chance of being broken) really relates to keepers which i wouldnt classify any of your listed players as.


And the perfect example of society today living by the rules, sorry buddy....

Just take a deep breath buddy, DT still doesnt kick off for another month, RELAX.
 
Agree with the majority of the points raised, but the 1st rule I question.

When it comes to picking your initial squad, you have to be flexible and plan your team around the value picks and your 'must haves'. It may be say Skipworth in the forwards, so you'd plan your team around him accordingly and just try and fit as many keepers as you can as you would. It's good to have a rough strategy in mind, but really, once you get the value picks & 'must haves' your strategy is bound to change a little. You may want say a rookie/gun strategy, but because of the bargains on offer mid-range you suddenly find yourself having to balance the team out and that's when your strategy goes out the window in some respect.

I certainly agree with the bolded statement, GS. However, some kind of team plan (guide, structure, or whatever you want to call it) is necessary. Here's why.

It ensures your team will not only maximise value (by taking the "value picks") but also that you will have enough trades to field a competitive team by midseason. Looking for value must be balanced by selecting enough high-scoring players initially to keep your team competitive. This is where a plan or structure comes in.

If you've done even a little research, you could probably fill your team with players who you think will improve (or "breakout"). But be careful - loading your team with too many "improvers" will mean that you'll need to use a ton of trades to upgrade those guys to the premiums (premiums meaning the top 10 or so players in each position).

This is why you need to have an idea of how many of your players will need upgrading (that is, need to be traded), and how many you plan to keep, barring injury of course.

Perhaps by now you're thinking that this problem can be avoided by selecting heaps of players that improve and become premiums, (Didak, Mattner, Deledio and co of 08). But in reality you can't fit all these players under your salary cap initially, since most will be >$300,000.

In the end its all about balance. If you're like me then you'll find it much easier to have some kind of rough plan in mind to keep you on track.

Yeah i agree with GT.

I went in with a gun/rookie strategy but found when i added my must haves initially i found my team was alot more balanced by going a more mid price strategy. I didnt want it but found that i couldnt utilise the bargain picks with a premium/rookie style team. I dont have the ABC midfield or the hodges/Scotland backline but am comfortable that i have filled my team with enough keepers to keep me competetive till the trading really kicks in.

As I alluded to above: in the end, this is all that matters. When we suggested to work out your primary strategy, we didn't mean doing it as rigidly as "oh, Skipworth is so attractive at that price, but my plan says I need to choose a rookie". Not at all what we meant. Its simply a case of having a guide so you have an idea of which players will need to be upgraded, and how many trades can be used on injuries and making "impulse trades". The plan can and should be tweaked as needed.

]I'm also sceptical about spending the money early on in regards to high priced guns. My theory is that i would like to sit back and see what roles players are looking at and who's firing and who's not in the H&A season and then target these players when the time is right. You can get plenty of 'Keepers' into your team using this method IMO, they may end up being my 4th 5th 6th mids or respective positions but a keeper is a keeper.

NT Thunder, I think a part of all of us wants to wait the first few rounds to see which guns are firing and which ones have failed to live up to their previous average. But the reality is that if you don't have enough guns initially, then the coaches with Ablett, Cox, Pav etc will have a huge advantage early on if they fire (some of these players will, some won't). It could be a matter of a hundred points over the first few rounds, which is not the kind of lead you want to give up unnecessarily. You have to take risks in this game, and I guess this is just another example - the risk that a player formerly considered a premium has now dropped a notch and is no longer in that category. And the flipside which is that a premium will jump out of the blocks and rapidly rise in price.
 
Yep agree with ^^^ post, but this year it's difficult IMO fitting in the good well priced options and also the top line premiums. Obviously in a perfect world it would all work out great but the salary cap doesnt allow this, and for good reason which i think makes this year more interesting then the previous.

I guess you just have to say to yourself 'well, i'm not going to be able to utilise all the bargains' then try and determine which are the best and work around them. For example it may mean taking Skippy over Hase if your structure deams upgrading another mid to ABC. Same and more so in the forward line.

I'm actually trying to project round 1 scores with each of my planned team options and actually find that there is not a great deal of difference points wise between structures. In this case you need to see which structure provides the safest option and most manageable option in terms of keepers/premiums/upgraades etc etc. I can't see too many cheap backs for future downgrades so why have a heap of potentially good cash cows there if you have no one to downgrade them to. I'm looking at utilising the fwd's and Mid bargains and deriving structure around them. Sounds good but i tend to over analyze it a bit too much i think and get blindsided by the obvious.
 
I certainly agree with the bolded statement, GS. However, some kind of team plan (guide, structure, or whatever you want to call it) is necessary.

Agree, which is why in the latter part of my post I also stated that having a rough structure in place could be beneficial. Good points raised BW4PM.
 
Yep agree with ^^^ post, but this year it's difficult IMO fitting in the good well priced options and also the top line premiums. Obviously in a perfect world it would all work out great but the salary cap doesnt allow this, and for good reason which i think makes this year more interesting then the previous.

I guess you just have to say to yourself 'well, i'm not going to be able to utilise all the bargains' then try and determine which are the best and work around them. For example it may mean taking Skippy over Hase if your structure deams upgrading another mid to ABC. Same and more so in the forward line.

I'm actually trying to project round 1 scores with each of my planned team options and actually find that there is not a great deal of difference points wise between structures. In this case you need to see which structure provides the safest option and most manageable option in terms of keepers/premiums/upgraades etc etc. I can't see too many cheap backs for future downgrades so why have a heap of potentially good cash cows there if you have no one to downgrade them to. I'm looking at utilising the fwd's and Mid bargains and deriving structure around them. Sounds good but i tend to over analyze it a bit too much i think and get blindsided by the obvious.

In regards to the bolded section - what sort of scores are you finding you end up with? Ive been doing the same, and it comes out to around 1900-1950.
 
Yeh im getting about in that same range. Just putting in what i think each player will average for the year as my basis, and doubling my captain choice. I have pretty conservative estimates though - put all my rookies as 55, and put some players a bit below what id hope for, so yeh.
 

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The Golden Rules - discussion thread

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