Prediction 2023 Ladder Prediction Thread

[RUNVS]

I am going to make a big call here but I think this is the year Gold Coast make the 8. I think with King back it is going to improve their structure and their young players are all a year older now. They only need 2 (maybe 3) more wins this year than they got last year and I think they can do it.

 

[CHAWKTS]

Rediculous doing the ladder predictor in January. But I was on holidays. This is what it said in terms of the final 8.

reckon I might have been too harsh on carlton but Sam Walsh out worries me for first half of season

 

[CHAWKTS]

I am going to make a big call here but I think this is the year Gold Coast make the 8. I think with King back it is going to improve their structure and their young players are all a year older now. They only need 2 (maybe 3) more wins this year than they got last year and I think they can do it.

I agree. Struggle to see who they push out ( I think Port come in and probably carlton so need 2 to 3 to drop out)

but Gold Coast just need to hold form for longer in the season and I think they will given player development. They have the talent no doubt

 

[carlton_99]

Good post and lots of logic.
only material difference in views i have is that I think port Adelaide to make the 8 and Gold Coast a strong chance if they can hold form for longer in the season.
I think collingwood makes way for one of those (they will lost half the close ones this year!) and like you I think freemantle are fringe so could drop out

also not convinced clarko will have that impact on north. Think he and Sam Mitchell will play games to see who gets number 1 draft pick

Yeh like I said wouldn't be surprised to see PA finish higher. With North I think people underrate their list slightly. They have a pretty good best 22 so with limited injuries I think they will surprise a few

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

I'd be surprised if GC finish above 10th.

 

[puppy_dog7]

These 5 rules predict who’ll crash out of the AFL top eight. There’s one big surprise

These 5 rules project who’ll crash out of the top eight. There’s one big surprise: AFL Predicted Ladder

www.foxsports.com.au

Posting this article from last year here as a reminder that roughly 3 changes to the 8 each year and 1 new top 8 team will generally jump from outside the 8 into the top 4.

Last season was no exception, with 3 falling out (GWS, Port & Ess) and Collingwood coming from outside the top 8 to finish top 4.

 

[Fadge]

These 5 rules predict who’ll crash out of the AFL top eight. There’s one big surprise

These 5 rules project who’ll crash out of the top eight. There’s one big surprise: AFL Predicted Ladder

www.foxsports.com.au

Posting this article from last year here as a reminder that roughly 3 changes to the 8 each year and 1 new top 8 team will generally jump from outside the 8 into the top 4.

Last season was no exception, with 3 falling out (GWS, Port & Ess) and Collingwood coming from outside the top 8 to finish top 4.

So their big tip was Sydney to miss the Top 8.

That worked well...

 

[puppy_dog7]

So their big tip was Sydney to miss the Top 8.

That worked well...

Really? That’s what you took out of that article?
An opinion by a journo on his ladder prediction, over the almost statistical certainty of 3 changes to the top 8 each year?

 

[Fadge]

Really? That’s what you took out of that article?
An opinion by a journo on his ladder prediction, over the almost statistical certainty of 3 changes to the top 8 each year?

Yep.

My other take-away was that every finalist from 2022 are more likely than not to make the 2023 finals, and all teams who missed the 2022 finals are less likely than likely to make the 2023 finals.

 

[Joao]

Seems we're ****ed. Roughly 1/2 of semi losers leave the 8 and we're competing with the Dees who many have locked in the top 4.

Gulp.

 

[RonnieRaven]

Seems we're ****ed. Roughly 1/2 of semi losers leave the 8 and we're competing with the Dees who many have locked in the top 4.

Gulp.

Reading this thread you’d think so.
Lobb has become buddy like.
Acres is durable and will hurt us leaving.
And Logue who isn’t best 22 when injury free will hurt aswell.
Mundy will be a loss for onfield leadership but captain and as some hawks fan have said potential captain should fill the void.
Unless ravaged by injury Anchors a lock for top 4.
Getting our Captain, our leading goalkicker, Omeara and Jackson into the team and progression from our up and comers will be good.
People think the anchors only rose up the ladder because everything went right.
Covid stuffed us over early and we certainly didn’t get kissed on the dick with injuries(although as a docker it felt like that going off the previous 5 years).
Played infront of half crowds early and had a tough draw.

 

[Joao]

Reading this thread you’d think so.
Lobb has become buddy like.
Acres is durable and will hurt us leaving.
And Logue who isn’t best 22 when injury free will hurt aswell.
Mundy will be a loss for onfield leadership but captain and as some hawks fan have said potential captain should fill the void.
Unless ravaged by injury Anchors a lock for top 4.
Getting our Captain, our leading goalkicker, Omeara and Jackson into the team and progression from our up and comers will be good.
People think the anchors only rose up the ladder because everything went right.
Covid stuffed us over early and we certainly didn’t get kissed on the dick with injuries(although as a docker it felt like that going off the previous 5 years).
Played infront of half crowds early and had a tough draw.

I was more referring to the article above but I agree with some of that sentiment as well.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

These 5 rules predict who’ll crash out of the AFL top eight. There’s one big surprise

These 5 rules project who’ll crash out of the top eight. There’s one big surprise: AFL Predicted Ladder

www.foxsports.com.au

Posting this article from last year here as a reminder that roughly 3 changes to the 8 each year and 1 new top 8 team will generally jump from outside the 8 into the top 4.

Last season was no exception, with 3 falling out (GWS, Port & Ess) and Collingwood coming from outside the top 8 to finish top 4.

So projecting for 2023, the odds are Melbourne (5th), Fremantle (6th) & Bulldogs (8th) miss the finals (rules 1 & 3).

So who replaces them? I would say Carlton, Port & Gold Coast. Carlton to jump straight into the top 4 (rule 2).

 

[Boppo]

Brisbane

Sydney

Carlton

Freo

Dogs

Gold C

Pies

Melb



Geelong

GWS

Adelaide

Richmond

Port

North

Bombers

Hawks

Saints

Eagles

 

[Arr0w]

Yep.

My other take-away was that every finalist from 2022 are more likely than not to make the 2023 finals, and all teams who missed the 2022 finals are less likely than likely to make the 2023 finals.

While more than a 3rd of the teams that made finals this year will miss.

All about how you manipulate a statement

 

[hawkman]

Thought Brisbane might finish on top but Adams likely being out for the year gives me doubts now about their backline

 

[StevoJenkins]

Thought Brisbane might finish on top but Adams likely being out for the year gives me doubts now about their backline

Payne is better, just needs the games and experience under his belt.

 

[4tone]

Gunston is slowing down. He struggled to get separation against the better defenders in 2022, but he should get it easier at Lions.

Still likely to be an upgrade on McStay, but he filled his boots against North and the Suns in 2022, and only kicked 11 goals against the top 8 for the year, so he’s a watch.

Pretty popular saying the upgrade, so disrespectful even I’ve caught some media idiots saying it. Bet if Mcstay went to the cats they wouldn’t be saying it. Mcstay is 5 years younger, no injury concerns, can ruck, can go down back. How’s is that an upgrade on a guy that plays in 1 half of ground and that’s got 1 or 2 years left on the game. Mcstay improves the pies just as he was important to the lions resurgence of late.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Pretty popular saying the upgrade, so disrespectful even I’ve caught some media idiots saying it. Bet if Mcstay went to the cats they wouldn’t be saying it. Mcstay is 5 years younger, no injury concerns, can ruck, can go down back. How’s is that an upgrade on a guy that plays in 1 half of ground and that’s got 1 or 2 years left on the game. Mcstay improves the pies just as he was important to the lions resurgence of late.

Gunston has played key forward, half forward, wing, half back, so you’ve not been paying attention if you think he doesn’t stray from the forward half.

As a forward he’s a couple of levels above McStay.

 

[4tone]

Gunston has played key forward, half forward, wing, half back, so you’ve not been paying attention if you think he doesn’t stray from the forward half.

As a forward he’s a couple of levels above McStay.

Retired and playing for the Labrador Sharks whilst Mcstay will at the top his game. That’s exactly how I see it panning out by 2025. Also at this stage of Gunstans career, half back and wing probably not in the Lions plans going forward. But you’re right Gunstan was certainly a gun back in 2015.

 

[4tone]

“Atrocious defence”- Marcus adams missed the last month of the season and finals due to concussion. He was a huge loss. Him being back will benefit harris Andrews massively.

I see Adam’s unlikely to play in 2023. There goes your entire opening spiel for making your case that lions have some sort of decent defence. They don’t, they were exposed consistently all last year. They brang in a retired Irishman as a desperate measure to bring in some pace, not sure how that will work out for them. Pretty sure every team know that the Lions are weak down back and will exploit it at every chance. The rest of what said full of hope and projection, I’m not buying it, they are 6th at best and 12th finishing ladder position team at worst. They will be somewhere in the middle of that.

 

[hawkman]

Retired and playing for the Labrador Sharks whilst Mcstay will at the top his game. That’s exactly how I see it panning out by 2025. Also at this stage of Gunstans career, half back and wing probably not in the Lions plans going forward. But you’re right Gunstan was certainly a gun back in 2015.

Gunston kicked 32 goals in 16 games last year in a side that finished 13th. McStay has never kicked that many in a season.

Gunston is just a better player for a premiership push in the next 2 years

 

[4tone]

Gunston kicked 32 goals in 16 games last year in a side that finished 13th. McStay has never kicked that many in a season.

Gunston is just a better player for a premiership push in the next 2 years

Mcstay is and always will be a structure player. His goal output was not the reason he played 160 games for the Lions or reason he got 5 years at the pies. Amazing how experienced list mangers have got this so wrong and bigfooty knockabouts have scrubbed a line through Mcstay. The big blokes at the Lions have especially helped guys like Cameron and Mcarthey. I think Mcstay is a bit of a loss for the Lions.

 

[eth-dog]

Mcstay is and always will be a structure player. His goal output was not the reason he played 160 games for the Lions or reason he got 5 years at the pies. Amazing how experienced list mangers have got this so wrong and bigfooty knockabouts have scrubbed a line through Mcstay. The big blokes at the Lions have especially helped guys like Cameron and Mcarthey. I think Mcstay is a bit of a loss for the Lions.

Of course you do. McStay is an average tall who got a long contract because he's a free agent. Good mark and field kick but I wouldn't have too many expectations on him.

 

[StevoJenkins]

Retired and playing for the Labrador Sharks whilst Mcstay will at the top his game. That’s exactly how I see it panning out by 2025. Also at this stage of Gunstans career, half back and wing probably not in the Lions plans going forward. But you’re right Gunstan was certainly a gun back in 2015.

Everyone knew that McStay was leaving well before it was announced, but there were no other proven forwards on the market for a finals team, so you get the best available. I do see Gunstan as an upgrade on McStay in terms of scoreboard impact, and towards the end of the year Hipwood was able to play the role McStay was playing earlier in the season, in terms of physicality.

With that in mind, when Gunstan does retire, I have no doubt the club will have a better choice at the time as the Lions list management team is usually on point with this sort of thing. I also expect Gunstan to join the coaching ranks, which is part of the play here. But we'll see in 2025.

I see Adam’s unlikely to play in 2023. There goes your entire opening spiel for making your case that lions have some sort of decent defence. They don’t, they were exposed consistently all last year. They brang in a retired Irishman as a desperate measure to bring in some pace, not sure how that will work out for them. Pretty sure every team know that the Lions are weak down back and will exploit it at every chance. The rest of what said full of hope and projection, I’m not buying it, they are 6th at best and 12th finishing ladder position team at worst. They will be somewhere in the middle of that.

It was never the defensive unit that was the problem, the issue was the team defence as a whole. A backline of Andrews, Payne/Adams (I prefer Payne as he is the future), Gardiner, Rich, Coleman and Wilmot/Answorth isn't as bad as you're describing on paper.

The midfield and forwards just didn't want to chase or keep their man accountable. Doesn't help when you've got players like Lyons, Cameron or Andrews who are hobbling around on one leg towards the end of the season, or you watch Joe not really put the effort in to least put pressure on the ball carrier (the bad call on his shoulder didn't help with this). When we put players on those lines who wanted to do the small things (Dev Robertson/Matheison/Rayner once he was fit/Berry as a tagger), we saw improvement there. Putting Dunkley and Dev in the middle will only improve that.

In regard to the Irishman, the backline has been needing a "fast" rebounder for the past 4-5 years. Too many times the defensive unit has needed another option than just booting it to a tall which, when you play teams like Geelong, isn't going to cut. I imagine that he (and Coleman/Wilmott) will open a few options for the backline and be a mentor to Jimmy Madden, who the coaches have really wanted to take that role for a while. With that in mind, I don't see why the Lions can't make top 4 with the first 3/4 of last season and the finals series they put up if they improve team defence.